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Subject: In which we discuss probability, BGG and the official contests. rss

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Lot's of people complain when they lose the official contests on BGG.

My own presumption is that the average BGG user thinks their odds of winning a BGG contest are far higher than they actually are.

So let's investigate together the actual probability of winning a BGG contest, and then investigate how that probability changes as multiple contests are entered.

Most contests give you six entries if you answer all questions correctly. So let's give our hypothetical player six entries. Taking a glance at a few microbadge totals (not perfect since can be deleted, but easy) and it looks like 3500 is a pretty standard number of people taking part in the contests. Let's just split that in half and say that the other contestants average 3 entries per contestant and get 10500 entries for a total of 6 entries out of 10500 for our player.

Which I think leaves a player with .0057142857% chance of winning. But lets say the contest allows five winners. I'm already beyond my math sills and I might not even have that first figure correct.

So someone else can figure out what that players chance of winning is, and how entering multiple contests effects their probability of having at least one win.

Lots of people buy these badges: mbmbmb so these probabilities may be an interesting place to look.
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frumpish wrote:
Which I think leaves a player with .0057142857% chance of winning.


You're out by a factor of 10. Should be .057142857% chance.

Edit: i.e. a 1 in 2000 chance, roughly. Not bad.
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You have the decimal point one place out, more like 0.057...% but otherwise you are correct, say about 1/1800

I would rather assume you get the average number of entries which gives you 1/3500 but either way, reasonably long odds as a one off.

5 prizes, going to 5 different people, your chances improve to 1/700

So you enter 10 times, the chance of you failing to win is (699/700)^10 or about 98.6%, in other words you have a 1.4% chance of winning one or more of the competitions.

Enter 200 times and your chances of winning something rocket up to just short of 25%. (100 times is around 13% and 300 just short of 35%).

However, if those same 3,500 people have all entered 200 such competitions, that means that around 875 of them will have won something (some of them more than once given there were 1000 prizes handed out) and the other 2,625 poor saps will have bought a microbadge.
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Josh Jennings
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I think that most of the quizzes give you more tickets than that. I've seen some go as high as 13. However, if you assume that everyone gets roughly of entries it makes the problem much more simple. My numbers use the following assumptions:

3,500 people participate in the contest.
Each participant earns the same number of entries.
There are 5 winners chosen.
The same participant cannot win the same contest more than once (i.e their other tickets are removed).

If everyone has the same odds then your chance of being chosen as the first winner are 1/3500.

If you are not chosen first, then your odds are 1/3499, etc.

Therefore, the odds of being chosen as 1 of 5 winners are:

1/3500 + 1/3499 + 1/3498 + 1/3497 + 1/3496 = 0.001429388... x 100 = 0.1429388% or roughly, 1/700 people. Which is really just another way of saying: 3500/5 = 700.

This value varies, obviously, with the number of participants and how many entries the average participant receives (a factor of the difficulty of the quiz) vs. how many entries you receive.

Edit: boltongeordie beat me with the simple math.
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I managed 160 such contests without winning before giving up. What do I win?
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Andy Andersen
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I'm 0-282.

I must have an obsession about microbadges
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I've won three of these contests so far. whistle
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Chanfan wrote:
I've won three of these contests so far. whistle


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sunkencheerio wrote:
Chanfan wrote:
I've won three of these contests so far. whistle




I've won two. There is a certain oft quoted (by me) principal in play.
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frumpish wrote:
Lot's of people complain when they lose the official contests on BGG.

My own presumption is that the average BGG user thinks their odds of winning a BGG contest are far higher than they actually are.

So let's investigate together the actual probability of winning a BGG contest, and then investigate how that probability changes as multiple contests are entered.

Most contests give you six entries if you answer all questions correctly. So let's give our hypothetical player six entries. Taking a glance at a few microbadge totals (not perfect since can be deleted, but easy) and it looks like 3500 is a pretty standard number of people taking part in the contests. Let's just split that in half and say that the other contestants average 3 entries per contestant and get 10500 entries for a total of 6 entries out of 10500 for our player.

Which I think leaves a player with .0057142857% chance of winning. But lets say the contest allows five winners. I'm already beyond my math sills and I might not even have that first figure correct.

So someone else can figure out what that players chance of winning is, and how entering multiple contests effects their probability of having at least one win.

Lots of people buy these badges: mbmbmb so these probabilities may be an interesting place to look.


BTW...Any internet lawyers out there willing to represent me in a geek lawsuit over those MBs?
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I'm sure many of the "complaints" are just people making light of the long odds of winning. I know that's what I'm thinking when I make such a comment.
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M C
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I "won" one,but the kick starter failed so I didn't get anything.
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Laudwic wrote:
I "won" one,but the kick starter failed so I didn't get anything.


The contest I won was on kickstarter and funded in January 2013, I still have no idea when the game will be released and have given up thinking I will get it at some point.
Does this count towards the 200 contest lost micro badge?
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I've won two. The first one I didn't even realize for months and the second will be kickstarted in a few months. I blame my user name not showing up for me not knowing.
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jeRm! wrote:
I've won two. The first one I didn't even realize for months and the second will be kickstarted in a few months. I blame my user name not showing up for me not knowing.


Don't they geekmail you or something when you win?
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I'm at a 196 that I have MBs for and I know there were a few more before they started doing that.

So far I have won: nada.
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sunkencheerio wrote:
jeRm! wrote:
I've won two. The first one I didn't even realize for months and the second will be kickstarted in a few months. I blame my user name not showing up for me not knowing.


Don't they geekmail you or something when you win?


They did eventually, but I had an older email on my BGG account that wasn't checked often. That issue has been rectified.
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sunkencheerio wrote:
jeRm! wrote:
I've won two. The first one I didn't even realize for months and the second will be kickstarted in a few months. I blame my user name not showing up for me not knowing.


Don't they geekmail you or something when you win?


I have won twice and received geekmails neither time. I got emails from my Geek associated account, but I don't check that regularly.

I sometimes send geekmails to users I recognize when they win.
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frumpish wrote:
sunkencheerio wrote:
jeRm! wrote:
I've won two. The first one I didn't even realize for months and the second will be kickstarted in a few months. I blame my user name not showing up for me not knowing.


Don't they geekmail you or something when you win?


I have won twice and received geekmails neither time. I got emails from my Geek associated account, but I don't check that regularly.

I sometimes send geekmails to users I recognize when they win.


Somebody will have to do that for me. I enter lots but never check to see if I win. I just assume that I won't because I never win anything. But hey, free geekbadge!
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sunkencheerio wrote:
But hey, free geekbadge!


...that will never be displayed underneath an avatar.
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Meeple1 wrote:
Laudwic wrote:
I "won" one,but the kick starter failed so I didn't get anything.

The contest I won was on kickstarter and funded in January 2013, I still have no idea when the game will be released and have given up thinking I will get it at some point.

I took 285 contests, counting mb – so, 284 sponsored contests. I won twice, in 2012 and 2013: both were kickstarter games, both were eventually funded, and both came from the same publisher. I haven't received anything yet, nor was I contacted by the publisher. Thus, 0-285, aiming for mb.
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Looking at these stars suddenly dwarfed my own troubles and all the gravities of terrestrial life. I thought of their unfathomable distance, and the slow inevitable drift of their movements out of the unknown past into the unknown future. H.G. Wells
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J.L.Robert wrote:
sunkencheerio wrote:
But hey, free geekbadge!


...that will never be displayed underneath an avatar.


The underavatar is the least of my microbadges.

I get the sense many people consider the underavatar microbadges to the be only microbadges that matter.

For me however I see the five displayed badges as the smallest glimpse of the treasures lying beneath the surface, the full collection of my microbadges.
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Orangemoose wrote:
I'm 0-282.

I must have an obsession about microbadges


mb

(I've won one contest)

-DK
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Orangemoose wrote:
I'm 0-282.

I must have an obsession about microbadges


Yet you seem to have missed a few
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As an admin I'm immune from winning, so I just enter for the microbadges.
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