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Joel Gabelman
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I played Cuba Libre as an intro game a couple months ago to learn the basics of the wonderful COIN system. Last week I jumped into FITL, and played 2 short scenario games (okay - 1.5 short scenario games, I had to leave early!)

In short, the NVA player, around 80% through the game, commented: "I have no idea what I'm doing, I'm just moving cubes around. I'm miserable". At the gaming table was another player who had sat watching the 4 of us play, and I suggested he switch with the NVA player (which he did).

20-minutes later, low and behold the 3rd Coup card came up. Wouldn't you know it that the NVA player wound up almost winning? He came in a close 2nd. This made me scratch my head a bit.

Some points:

1) The NVA player stayed up north and barely moved, so the rest of us was in a 3 way fight, ignoring the NVA.

2) There were 3 noobs to the game, and one guy played only 2 +/- times before.

Now my favorite game is GO. A skilled player will crush a beginner. I am relatively new to wargames, and FITL was the first COIN I was able to play all the way through. It certainly deserves more plays before making a determination, and FWIW, I really like the game.

How much though does victory depend on skillful play versus luck?

I certainly don't expect the same ratio of skill:luck as there is in Go. Please don't confuse me. I DO like games though that reward good play. I am just curious, say on a scale of 1-10 with 10 = HIGHLY REWARDS GOOD PLAY, where FITL, or for that matter, any of the COIN games, fall?

The story is great, and I certainly got a much better feel of the Vietnam conflict (I was born in the late 70's). I love that the US gain victory by pulling out military, I love the balance between control vs "hearts & minds" and during my second game, things flowed much better (which is a given).

I understand there's SOME luck with the game, and SOME luck with the last card (luck can play a role with who wins based on which faction is active). Still, onto the main question: How much of the game is skill vs. luck?

Last question/point: One of the players LOVED "monsoon" stage during a Coup card, as it prevented "gaming" the game. The suggestion was to impose a similar house rule on the other COIN games. What are thoughts on this?

I'm looking forward to exploring this game much more!

Thanks!
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Volko Ruhnke
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A great question. Others will chime in, I hope.

My two boys consistently beat me, at Fire in the Lake and at the other COIN volumes. But I have no reason to think the my boys are consistently luckier than me or anyone else.

My son Andrew at last year's WBC Andean Abyss tournament advanced through all 4 rounds, playing a different faction each Round, and won the tournament. It was not seen as coincidence that he was the designer's son.

Is it possible that, with FitL being a new game, none in the game you described were that substantially more experienced than the others?

As for the NVA, I'm not sure how they will get very close to their victory margin if they just sit in the corner of the map, since half or so of their score depends on occupying South Vietnam. However, if they succeeded in diverting COIN attention to the VC while somehow simultaneously controlling enough population and bases to do well, I'd say that demonstrates some skill.

One aspect of the NVA, by the way, is that they have a much smaller threshold and total score than the other 3, so smaller margins. It is possible that no one is doing much to get o threshold and NVA ends up in 2nd because they don't have that far to go (or to fall) to begin with.

Nevertheless, many (me included) see NVA as the trickiest faction to play, because they are so different fom all other factions in the series, and need to time their vulnerable moves into South Vietnam adroitly.

Volko
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elmsley4 wrote:
Now my favorite game is GO.


Go, an abstract zero-sum, perfect-information, deterministic strategy game with one of the highest game complexity ratings (referring to a measure of combinatorial depth) of any game. I.e., it's purely skill, with a wonderful handicapping mechanism.

Fire in the Lake, a non-zero-sum, asymmetric, perfect-information, stochastic strategy game, that simulates the tensions of Vietnam (a mess). The game complexity measure is most likely far lower than Go.

It's not a level field of comparison. However, I suspect being a Go fan, you're interested in combinatorial depth, and are tolerant of some stochasticity. I can't answer that, as I've played one game and I'm in the process planning more with my local group soon. However, I suggest you take a look at a thread on Twilight Struggle. I think an indirect measure of skill is the spread in rankings that is achieved in a game. Go has a huge exponential spread in skill ranges. Twilight Struggle (an absolutely wonderful game), has a decent spread in skill but nowhere near the depth of Go. However, you don't have wonderful things like, "After the Kitchen Sink Debate, I poked my opponent and he dropped Duck and Cover, well that moved DefCon, I tell yah." Time will tell if FITL has a decent spread of rankings in play, but sacrificing my influence to bomb the VC is satisfying on a rainy Sat night.
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Shawn Garbett
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I forgot to mention, what I love about complex games like is trying to see through the complexity to find a zen-like center where the real game lies, and to do it before anyone else starts to catch on. To separate the window dressing, from the core mechanic for the win--and still tell a story as the game unfolds. That's a great game.

Life is kind of like that. Try figuring out a mortgage agreement in the allotted time of signing. These situations hit one all the time.
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Joel Gabelman
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Volko wrote:
My son Andrew at last year's WBC Andean Abyss tournament advanced through all 4 rounds, playing a different faction each Round, and won the tournament. It was not seen as coincidence that he was the designer's son.


This is very encouraging!

Volko wrote:

Is it possible that, with FitL being a new game, none in the game you described were that substantially more experienced than the others?


Another excellent point - and you're right. The most experienced player in the COIN games is the one who commented that because the NVA player did nothing, the rest of us didn't pay attention and this is why he came close to winning, or at least an easy 2nd place.

Volko wrote:

One aspect of the NVA, by the way, is that they have a much smaller threshold and total score than the other 3, so smaller margins. It is possible that no one is doing much to get o threshold and NVA ends up in 2nd because they don't have that far to go (or to fall) to begin with.


That seems to be the answer.

Thank you for your thoughts, answers and a great gaming experience!

Quick side note: I told my cousin, an assistant federal prosecutor in Miami (prior a naval intelligence officer), about your game designs because at one time, we wanted to create a game about the drug cartel (he has, as I'm sure you do, some GREAT stories). While he's not a gamer, I'd love to get him in front of one of your designs as I think he'd love them. If he has additional motivations in game design, I'd love to introduce him to you!

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It is difficult to rate the player´s skill in COIN games because many times the optimal play is not the best play. The player´s control of the game flow is limited and the faction interactions are so fine tunned that inconsistent moves of a new player can easily spoil the strategy of a veteran one. (Some time ago my govt city garrisons were repeatedly bashed by a new AUC player)

Regarding the NVA, it seems a one trick pony. It keeps building up forces in Camboya/Laos until a brutal Easter Offensive falls on the South. In my games, this strategy has failed to get a victory for the north so far. I think that a more offensive approach, infiltrating guerrillas and testing the south defenses from time to time should pave the road for a more efficient offensive.

I think that the US is even trickier. It looks very powerful with a lot of fancy weaponary, but the ARVN is a PITA. Govt faction in ADP was relatively easy to keep at bay, but in FitL I always feel pimped by the ARVN, facing the extremely dangerous VC alone while he keeps building patronage.


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Andrew Gudgeon
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I'm playing my 1st COIN game as the VC with three other guys by email. I think only one of us is an experienced player and it does look like we're all just blundering around. However, I can't speak for the others but I do feel that i know what I am doing, and I'm very close to my victory conditions. Maybe its because the VC are easy to.play as, but I don't feel like I got to where I am by chance.

Despite this being my first experience of a COIN game I am not just thinking about how to play the game, I'm thinking about how to play to win
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Mark Herman
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arubiero wrote:
It is difficult to rate the player´s skill in COIN games because many times the optimal play is not the best play. The player´s control of the game flow is limited and the faction interactions are so fine tunned that inconsistent moves of a new player can easily spoil the strategy of a veteran one. (Some time ago my govt city garrisons were repeatedly bashed by a new AUC player)

Regarding the NVA, it seems a one trick pony. It keeps building up forces in Camboya/Laos until a brutal Easter Offensive falls on the South. In my games, this strategy has failed to get a victory for the north so far. I think that a more offensive approach, infiltrating guerrillas and testing the south defenses from time to time should pave the road for a more efficient offensive.

I think that the US is even trickier. It looks very powerful with a lot of fancy weaponary, but the ARVN is a PITA. Govt faction in ADP was relatively easy to keep at bay, but in FitL I always feel pimped by the ARVN, facing the extremely dangerous VC alone while he keeps building patronage.




From Volko's and my first play tests I concentrated on understanding the NVA to satisfy myself that historical strategies and thinking would be a compass that a player could follow. If you are new to this title in the system it can appear that the NVA is just a build up and time the march into SVN for the win. But this is a very narrow view of the possible. The NVA is a fighting force and you need to fight not sit in the wings and wait for your moment.

If I have one comment to make regarding the NVA on what I have seen on BGG and CSW is this is Vietnam, not some Latin American insurgency. It is a war and you need to bring that mindset to the table. Not shooting at the US is bad strategy and not how the NVA won the real conflict.

As I wrote in another thread you have to learn the special activities combos when you get them, so for the NVA I think in terms of three phases, buildup, using rally-infiltrate, followed by infiltrate-march and once I am engaged with the COIN forces I am very aggressive with assaults.

While US airpower is very powerful, it can only kill 6 cubes at a time, so the goal is to mass when you move your army. The other point is once you enter a location, the COIN forces will likely engage, but instead of retreating you have to assault the US forces. Sure you will lose one for one, but that is the point of the historical attrition strategy. You have infinite forces, just reconstitute and do it again.

Now the other issue that comes up is this sounds all well and good, but then you hear that a particular side was never or rarely the first player on the cards. This happens and is probably the only real luck factor in the system. Again it is not a problem but a feature that you have to understand if you want to play any of the COIN games well. Its easy to come up with a strategy when the cards are all falling your way, but LIMOPs are very powerful if you have a strategy to string three of them together when there is a lull in your special activity opportunities. In this situation you rally a few times to build up a large force in one or two locations. Guerrillas then March and spread out into SVN. Of course a good COIN player will have sufficient forces to force you to reveal your guerrillas except when you do it near your VC brothers who have gained the opposition.

Try and make your initial inroads into the Highlands as you are much harder to kill with US and ARVN attacks unless they have a base. You should try and avoid bases, but again, try and inflict losses on the US early in the game. It kills AID and reduces the US available forces. Also, when you do get an event that will send US bases to casualties it is an event to consider and useful even from the second player position. Note that during Commitment all US bases in the casualty box go out of play. There are only six, so killing US bases when you get the opportunity has long term benefits.

Also note that the short scenario can be unforgiving if you are not ruthlessly efficient. The longer scenarios are a bit more forgiving.

As you can see I am in the midst of writing an article that I will co-author with Volko for c3i. I am having no problem winning with the NVA and I am not using the one trick pony strategy described here, although it will work if you somehow know when the coup is going to show up.

Mark
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Volko Ruhnke
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Quote:
Quick side note: I told my cousin, an assistant federal prosecutor in Miami (prior a naval intelligence officer), about your game designs because at one time, we wanted to create a game about the drug cartel (he has, as I'm sure you do, some GREAT stories). While he's not a gamer, I'd love to get him in front of one of your designs as I think he'd love them. If he has additional motivations in game design, I'd love to introduce him to you!

Joel, I'd be more than happy to chat with him. I also have a concept for a game about the US counterdrug effort (who knows when, if ever, I'll get to it). Would enjoy trading notes! Best, Volko
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Rex Stites
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elmsley4 wrote:
IIn short, the NVA player, around 80% through the game, commented: "I have no idea what I'm doing, I'm just moving cubes around.

Some points:



2) There were 3 noobs to the game, and one guy played only 2 +/- times before.

Now my favorite game is GO. A skilled player will crush a beginner. I am relatively new to wargames, and FITL was the first COIN I was able to play all the way through. It certainly deserves more plays before making a determination, and FWIW, I really like the game.



Thanks!


Your story establishes that the NVA player was a beginner, but the other part of your observation about Go is that it is a skilled player that will crush a beginner. 3 noobs and a guy who has played COIN games a couple of games do not satisfy the "skilled" opponent part of your Go observation.

It isn't that a beginner can't win at go. It's that a beginner can't beat a skilled player. The beginner who admitted to not knowing what he was doing in your FitL game almost winning against a bunch of other beginners doesn't really tell us anything about whether a skilled player will prevail over a beginner.

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Joel Gabelman
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Mark,

This is very interesting insight. My first couple plays felt more like a tug-of-war (I was ARVN). I'd do damage, and it was erased the by the VC/NVA. Then the VC/NVA would do damage, and it was erased by the COIN. It was a game of inches. That said, it is very evident from you and Volko that if you don't really know what you're doing this is how the game will play. The more I learn about the conflict, the more the game makes sense. Reading strategy insights by you and Volko not only provides a better insight into the game, it give me a better understanding of what was going on with the war. I am going to have to pick up the C3i issue with your article!

Thank you for your insights and a great game. I'm excited to give this another go!

Best, Joel
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Eric Guttag
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Joel,

Here's my view as one of the playtesters: There's definitely going to be the "luck of the draw" (both as to which cards are in the deck and when they show up) in this game, but that also provides a "fog of war" and challenges the player's ability to adapt to everchanging circumstances. Most importantly, each player needs to focus on what increases their Victory Point total (or lowers their 3 opponents Victory totals). In this regard, the NVA and ARVN will be contending for Control of spaces, while the VC and US will be contending for Opposition v. Support in those spaces. Even if you don't play FITL solitaire, looking at the bot flowchart (including the description of what the bots will do for a given Event) will give you some idea as to what your particular Faction should be doing for Ops/SAs.

As Mark Herman says, the NVA usually start with fewer forces on the map (but are closer to their Victory goal), so they've usually got to Rally/Infiltrate like mad initially to build up forces, especially as they'll eventually be going "toe-to-toe" with the US and to a more limited extent with the ARVN. Also, the NVA has a somewhat uneasy relationship with their nominal ally, the VC, as one of the ways for the NVA to get a significant "toehold" in South Vietnam is to takeover (through Infiltrate) the VC forces, especially VC Bases, and more significantly, Tunneled VC Bases.

As Mark also notes, the Insurgents (NVA/VC) will want to anchor themselves in the Highlands, especially Binh Dinh and Quang Tri (2 Pop Provinces) to make it difficult for the COIN forces to dislodge them through Assaults. The Insurgents (especially the VC) will also want to cling tightly to Jungle provinces near the Mekong, especially Tay Ninh (the only 2 Pop Jungle Province), which make Sweep Ops more difficult for the COIN forces. Also, getting the Insurgents Guerillas spread out and lodged in a Province at Support can give the US headaches when trying to kill them off with Air Strikes. The VC can also create nightmares for the ARVN through the Subvert SA which makes any space with ARVN cubes and Underground VC Guerillas highly vulnerable to the VC. And Marching the VC onto the LoCs can not only generate VC Resources through the Tax SA without the Opposition hit, but also diminish ARVN Resources at Coup Round time, plus impact the ability of ARVN forces to move about via the Transport SA, as well as through the Patrol Op.

By contrast, the COIN forces need to keep the Insurgents out of the Highlands, and under control near the Mekong, especially in the Jungle Provinces. Also, executing Events in the Cards that drain Insurgent Resources can really hamper the NVA/VC (plus knocking off VC Bases anywhere, and NVA Bases in Laos/Cambodia, while also Degrading the Trail constantly). The biggest force the NVA have are Troops, but those are also most vulnerable to Assaults and Air Strikes. If used judiciously, the ARVN Rangers and US Irregulars can be potent Insurgent killers through Raid and Advise SAs. (That's the reason why Section 8 of the Rulebook puts these COIN Special Forces at the top of the Insurgents "hits list.") The ARVN need to do enough Passive Support in spaces to keep out Insurgent Rally Ops, but also get enough Patronage (through the Govern SA, minimizing VC Subvert SAs, and executing Events in Cards) to make their Victory total increase. The US has to balance how many US Troop/Bases are on the map during each Commitment phase to keep the Availability component of their Victory total up without putting the COIN forces at risk of being swamped by the Insurgents, especially the NVA.

From my discussion, you may realize there's a pretty complex "equation" going on here in FITL as to how the COIN v. Insurgent Factions interact, as well as how the nominal allies will interact with each other. Some these interactions are self-evident, others are more subtle. In my view, the "luck of the draw" won't be the biggest factor in winning (with the possible exception of the Short Scenario where you've got only 24 Event cards in the total deck, or half of the potential 48 cards from the 1965 deck, as well as no Pivotal Event Cards). Instead, how you adapt to circumstances which will change constantly, how well you're focusing on what increases your Victory quotient while minimizing those of your opponents (and sometimes whether you play your Faction's Pivotal Event at the optimum time) are more important.

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Gordon Blizzard
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I think one of the most important things to do as an NVA player is try to have a presence that takes more than one op+special activity to remove. This means using your guerillas as much as your troops, sometimes in the same space, sometimes not. Air strikes are tolerable, but air lift+assault is really a problem for your troop concentrations.

I think simply building up huge numbers of cubes in Laos and Cambodia and shoving them into Vietnam is a mistake without other presence. Try to work your way into semi-permanent strongholds in South Vietnam. Also try to pick on small groups of US cubes when possible, though you will get way more chances to do this by being in Vietnam as opposed to building up over a bunch of turns.
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rstites25 wrote:

Your story establishes that the NVA player was a beginner, but the other part of your observation about Go is that it is a skilled player that will crush a beginner. 3 noobs and a guy who has played COIN games a couple of games do not satisfy the "skilled" opponent part of your Go observation.


Another element here may be that the three other factions were involved in trying to succeed at the expense of the others while possibly ignoring the non-threatening NVA. In a four-player game, that's a real danger.

FITL may be a game where trying to win isn't enough. You also have to work to make the other players lose.
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PaulWRoberts wrote:
rstites25 wrote:

Your story establishes that the NVA player was a beginner, but the other part of your observation about Go is that it is a skilled player that will crush a beginner. 3 noobs and a guy who has played COIN games a couple of games do not satisfy the "skilled" opponent part of your Go observation.


Another element here may be that the three other factions were involved in trying to succeed at the expense of the others while possibly ignoring the non-threatening NVA. In a four-player game, that's a real danger.

FITL may be a game where trying to win isn't enough. You also have to work to make the other players lose.


I thought about this factor, but I think that goes to the "skilled" player point. A skilled player wouldn't ignore a player completely if that could lead to the weak player winning.

But there is another possibility--that 3 weak players ganging up on the skilled player may prevent the skilled player from winning. Obviously this can't happen in a 2-player game. FitL might mitigate this more than any other game because the factions are paired off and probably must cooperate to a degree.
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Hey Gordon,

Very astute points about how to play the NVA. Also, as I found out in playtesting, the Bombard SA (sometimes overlooked) is very useful for the NVA to knock off US Troops without incurring the 1-for-1 loss of NVA Troops/Guerillas from an Attack Op against US Troops. The Bombard SA gets even better if the NVA can play the shaded Long Range Guns Event (Card No. 37) which gives you 3 spaces to Bombard.
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Paul,

Very astute observation. As I noted upthread, while you need to focus on what moves your Faction's Victory total up, you had better not forget about what helps (or hinders) the Victory total of the other 3 competing Factions. That's especially true if the game plays out to the final Coup Card where the margin above (+) or below (-) the respective Victory finish lines really matters.
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Eric G wrote:
Paul,
As I noted upthread, while you need to focus on what moves your Faction's Victory total up, you had better not forget about what helps (or hinders) the Victory total of the other 3 competing Factions.


Very true. The playbook has an easily overlooked chart on the various interactions between factions on pg. 15:



Frankly, if I was teaching the game to new guys, I'd be inclined to copy it and hand it out along with the player aid because it helps with very basic newbie questions: "What can I do to help myself and what can I do specifically to hurt x faction?"

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Hey Scottgun,

Good thought about giving the new player a copy of the Interaction Chart. The guy who created it (Mike Owens) is a COIN series vet. I did 2-player three times with Mike during playtesting, and he sure did "school" me!
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MarkHerman wrote:
If you are new to this title in the system it can appear that the NVA is just a build up and time the march into SVN for the win. But this is a very narrow view of the possible. The NVA is a fighting force and you need to fight not sit in the wings and wait for your moment.


Fascinating. I just picked up this game, tried a solo game (no special rules, just played each side) and was "selling" it via email to my wargaming buddies. One of them asked which side was the most straightforward, and I answered "NVA", because that's the side most like a typical wargame. No asymmetry here, just build troops & map control.

Also, in my play through the NVA won because the final coup card appeared at the earliest moment, and it was NVA followed by VC, so as the NVA I picked up everything and moved it into positions to maximize control and thus won the game (nothing the VC could do to change that).

Anyways, I am new, it does appear to me that the NVA is the basic fighting force of the bunch, and I'm a bit worried about how easy it is for the NVA to cheese a last moment win by sacrificing their future position.

-Jeff
 
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Jaif wrote:
Also, in my play through the NVA won because the final coup card appeared at the earliest moment, and it was NVA followed by VC, so as the NVA I picked up everything and moved it into positions to maximize control and thus won the game (nothing the VC could do to change that).

You are aware that NVA can't March anywhere during the Monsoon, yes?

/Oerjan
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Dang...nope, I wasn't.

Now to go back downstairs and reverse everything. :-)

Thanks, learned again.
 
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