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Subject: Calling all military strategists! rss

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Hunga Dunga
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How effective do you think Obama's 4-point strategy will be?
Goodbye, ISIL! Don't let the door hit ya where the Good Lord split ya!
The plan will help preserve the geopolitical integrity of the Iraqi state.
Turns ISIL into a party to be negotiated with.
ISIL will continue to exist, slipping in and out of the darkness as the situation demands.
Strategy creates more recruits to build an Islamic Caliphate.
      69 answers
Poll created by Hungadunga
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Greg Sager
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Ask me after 9/11/14.
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enrique aguilar
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well first of all the us is in large part responsible for the situation over there but lets say to be fair with you gentlemen bush, and obama has been cleaning that mess, the irak army should step up and do battle and kick that bastards in the ass but instead they run away??? well if no one is willing to send troops over there that situation wont change in the near future, sure the air strikes slow them down but for how long will the us will spend the money on the air and bombs? they are over there to stay in the end im with the west always lets hope the situation gets better but its pretty hard remember russia and ukraine?? is the same situation of pre ww2 and excuse my english and punctuation.
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alan beaumont
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Nostradamus
You forgot the right answer: NOBODY KNOWS.

See you soon in RSP.
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J.L. Robert
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misteralan wrote:
You forgot the right answer: NOBODY KNOWS.

See you soon in RSP.


I say Historical Context.
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Steven Cameron
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I don't know, playing a 4 OP card for the event rather than its operation points is always a risky move. We'll have to see what the rest of his hand is like to make a proper analysis.
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Gordon Watson
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Airstrikes may be enough to halt further advances by IS but driving them back needs boots on the ground. Those boots need not necessarily be US/NATO/some other coalition - they could be Iraqi or Syrian or Kurdish. Unfortunately all of those options are problematic:-

- For them to be Iraqi the Sunni's and Shia's have to put differences aside and commit to a unified nation state of Iraq and that looks like a stretch.

- To be Syrian, Assad would be the best bet, but that would really be dealing with the devil so is politically unacceptable. The Moderate opposition forces are now no longer strong enough and would need bolstering by external boots on the ground - the time to have helped them would have been last year.

- The Kurds are too centred in NE Iraq - they seem committed enough to hold their own but pushing IS back from the rest of Iraq is probably beyond them and would cause as many problems as it would solve anyway.


What a mess - thanks George.
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Jonathan "Spartan Spawn, Sworn, Raised for Warring!"
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Moron Tom wrote:
Ask me after 9/11/14.


Ive seen people say things like this elsewhere. I get what today is, but have there been confirmed threats or something? Or is this just unfounded fear mongering?
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Luftwaffe Flak wrote:


Ive seen people say things like this elsewhere. I get what today is, but have there been confirmed threats or something? Or is this just unfounded fear mongering?


I'm going to make a prediction. 10 years ago, just about this time, I watched the second plane hit the towers and told my wife "this is no accident". It tears me up to write and remember that morning.

But today, nothing will happen. And as much as our enemies would like to strike on the 10th anniversary, or in response to the President's speech last night, they can't. And that tells you something about the real balance of power and the resiliency of good people all over the world. Terrorism is spectacular and scary and causes anguish, but it cannot defeat us.
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Roger Hobden
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The whole historical situation tells me that it was a grave mistake to destroy the territorial integrity of the Ottoman Empire after WW I.

The allies should have left the Ottoman State intact, and let them sort out their internal affaires.

The partitioning of the Middle East is one of the Top Five Most Catastrophic Political Events of the XX Century, on par with the arrival of the Nazis in power in Germany in 1933.
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misteralan wrote:
You forgot the right answer: NOBODY KNOWS.

See you soon in RSP.


Ditto
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ISIL's actual ability to do us much harm was negligible, as evidenced by the beheading videos. They can torture and kill Westerners who fall into their hands, but that's a very small number. Terrorism is always an expression of military weakness. To the extent that ISIL was attempting to goad the US into a response, they succeeded. What they can do with that is very much open to question.

The factors that slowed ISIL's spread in Iraq are permanent factors, namely the presence of a majority Shia population that isn't interested in being under extremist Sunni rule. To the extent that the airstrikes can solidify the positions of the groups that are in opposition to ISIL--and when they can be used to effect humanitarian aid as the initial round did--that's fine.

The best possible result of all this would be to cause a detente with Iran and begin the process of working with them to stabilize Iraq, but that could have been done without the commitment of US force.
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Jim S.
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blockhead wrote:

10 years ago... 10th anniversary


13th, but no less tragic

9/11/2001
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misteralan wrote:
See you soon in RSP.

Only if this thread veers OT.

Notice how restrained we are here in the wargame sub-domain?
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Hugo L
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It's not a military problem but rather a geo-political problem. Sure some military actions may have some effects, but what is the long term plan ? Killing every bad guys on earth ? Yeah right, why the US did not succeed earlier then (Afganisthan, Irak, ...) ?
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Roger Hobden
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Following up on the same chain of thought :

The partitioning of the Middle East after WW I was a continuation of the XIX Century policy of the Great Powers to dismember the Ottoman Empire by supporting financially, militarily and politically ethnic/national groups within the Empire, to sow division and help these ethnic/national entities achieve "independence", meaning the opening of new markets to the commercial interests of France, Great-Britain, etc.

In retrospect, it would have been much better to keep the 1815 borders of the Ottoman Empire intact, giving support to the Tanzimat movement inside of the Empire.

Eventually, they would have had their democratic revolution, similar to France or Great Britain, and following that, the whole western part of the Mediterranean, and the Middle East, would now be ruled by the parliament of one unique country, which would have the resources to maintain peace within it's borders.

EDIT : added "national".
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domus_ludorum wrote:

What a mess - thanks George.


Wait, are you referring to David Lloyd George? Or Georges Clemenceau? Or perhaps Francois Georges-Picot?
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AWOL'd

(If you'd prefer RSP, let me know.)
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Hunga Dunga
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AWOL is fine by me.

Let's keep it in the family.
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Mallet wrote:
The whole historical situation tells me that it was a grave mistake to destroy the territorial integrity of the Ottoman Empire after WW I.

The allies should have left the Ottoman State intact, and let them sort out their internal affaires.

The partitioning of the Middle East is one of the Top Five Most Catastrophic Political Events of the XX Century, on par with the arrival of the Nazis in power in Germany in 1933.

This. Absolutely. 100%. As soon as Britain, France and the other major powers started drawing lines on a map post-1918 without regard to existing tribal, social, political, and city-state structures that existed under the Ottomans, largely to divvy up the resources across that region and maintain a semblance of 19th century empires, we were forever screwed.

[And it continues to this day ... $1,000,000,000,000 (trillion) worth of lithium under the ground in Afghanistan? It's the Saudi Arabia of lithium, and except for deposits in China, it's how we want to power our laptops, tablets, phones, and even cars for the next decades. Are military operations the only way to get at it and keep it secure?]

Then add into that mix the dramatically opposite and wildly un-reconcialable promises made to both Palestinians and Jewish interests in the 1920s and we created even more obvious issues. And why not arm Afghan warlords to fight the Soviets in the early 80s? Who would have ever thought that would be a bad idea?

20th century Western powers (and I'll throw the still convulsing post-Revolution Russia into that pot as well) and their outdated ideas about colonialization, entitlement and the "third world" are absolutely responsible for most of the problems we are now witness too, throughout much of the world stage in the last 100 years. Point to any 20th century hotspot and there's usually underlying causes that date to the late 1800s or early 1900s where a colonial or imperial power begat or intentionally flamed or ignored the existing structures.

[Oddly, I've just finished reading some essays from the 1920s and 1930s written by folks like Gertrude Stein, Hemingway, and other European and American politicians and historians who'd taken a very critical and self-appriasing look at what was going on in the world at that time, and accurately predicted much of the problems that would come out of it all. And where the blame lay ... at their own feet. Sad we didn't pay attention back then.]

seanmac wrote:
ISIL's actual ability to do us much harm was negligible, as evidenced by the beheading videos. They can torture and kill Westerners who fall into their hands, but that's a very small number. Terrorism is always an expression of military weakness. To the extent that ISIL was attempting to goad the US into a response, they succeeded. What they can do with that is very much open to question.

Yup. Terror is a great bogeyman to use in one's propaganda, whatever side you're on. In the real world, the flu kills more people in the USA every year than terror against US citizens and ebola deaths in west Africa. Combined. Without understanding the root causes of "terrorism" and the hatreds it then exacerbates (historic, social, ethnic, economic, Western meddling going back centuries, etc) we'll never make any headway against it. So I tend to agree.
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Greg Sager
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Unfounded fearmonger here.
There's been a lot of chatter lately. I was just trying to be prudent.
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alan beaumont
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Then by all means....
Hungadunga wrote:
misteralan wrote:
See you soon in RSP.

Only if this thread veers OT.
Notice how restrained we are here in the wargame sub-domain?

If this isn't politics then I fear we have forgotten our Clauswitz.
 
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misteralan wrote:
Hungadunga wrote:
misteralan wrote:
See you soon in RSP.

Only if this thread veers OT.
Notice how restrained we are here in the wargame sub-domain?

If this isn't politics then I fear we have forgotten our Clauswitz.

It's a continuum.

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Mike Hoyt

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stear wrote:
blockhead wrote:

10 years ago... 10th anniversary


13th, but no less tragic

9/11/2001


My bad. For whatever reason, the year has not stuck with me, certainly not as vividly as the date. And then, maybe in weird way, it just supports my opinion that 9/11 is a historical date, but not an anniversary to be feared. Some people at work today mentioned being fearful, and I honestly don't get it. Today is a beautiful Fall day, a time to remember for sure, but not a day to fear.
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Way, way too early to tell - and in any case, the fate of Islamic State is far more dependent on what happens in Damascus, Baghdad, and Erbil.
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