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Subject: Loans rss

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Dave Eisen
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1. Rules state that a player has to readjust his share value by 1 for each loan taken out. I assume this means that the share marker moves back 1 on the track for each loan at the time the loan is taken. Correct? This is less than the reduction in stock price from an emergency sale of stock.

2. Rules state that "Loans should be avoided!" I do not understand why. It looks to me like the only impact of taking a loan is that it costs $3 more to repay than you got when you took the loan (in addition to the valuation change in stock you don't own any of anyway). There are no other in-game impacts of having loans. Clearly it is bad to have no stock at all as you then do not profit from stock appreciation in the production phase, but once you have no stock why is having loans any worse? Is there some rule I am missing?


 
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Andi Hub
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1. I understand the rule the same way as you do.

2. Stock price depreciation furhter limits the value of your stock at the end of the game. Additionally you cannot game this, because you are only allowed to take out loans at the moment you have to pay for something. So you should take loans when you need them, but probably you are not in a good position to win anyway.
 
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Dave Eisen
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ringo84 wrote:
1. I understand the rule the same way as you do.

2. Stock price depreciation furhter limits the value of your stock at the end of the game. Additionally you cannot game this, because you are only allowed to take out loans at the moment you have to pay for something. So you should take loans when you need them, but probably you are not in a good position to win anyway.


But the depreciation does not limit the value at the end of the game. The price will be lower, but that just means you can buy more shares.

Unless typically you will end up owning all 30 shares of your company by the end of the game, in which case the lower price will put a ceiling on how much total share valuation you can have. I have not yet played a full game, both efforts getting called at about 50% complete, and thus do not know what to expect as far as final positions.

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Andi Hub
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Yeah, I see your point. When you already in a situation in which you could take loans, the downward stock tick may even be positive, since at higher stock prices you would need more (=3) up ticks for a price increase of 1$. You may rebuy the stocks at a lower price (thus have more stocks) and expect a higher price increase from future up ticks.

However, to take loans you have to have sold all your stocks and you have run out of money. I think you must have invested your money suboptimally, when you are not generating enough money at this point. But maybe there is some extreme strategy, like taking the inventor (allows upgrade to a higher level) and build three or four stage 3 factories in the second decade (1780s). I have only played it once, so I do not really know.
 
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Dave Eisen
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ringo84 wrote:
Yeah, I see your point. When you already in a situation in which you could take loans, the downward stock tick may even be positive, since at higher stock prices you would need more (=3) up ticks for a price increase of 1$. You may rebuy the stocks at a lower price (thus have more stocks) and expect a higher price increase from future up ticks.

However, to take loans you have to have sold all your stocks and you have run out of money. I think you must have invested your money suboptimally, when you are not generating enough money at this point. But maybe there is some extreme strategy, like taking the inventor (allows upgrade to a higher level) and build three or four stage 3 factories in the second decade (1780s). I have only played it once, so I do not really know.


This extreme strategy is precisely where it came up this week. My usual approach when learning a substantial game is to try an extreme but seemingly rational strategy in an effort to learn more about the game. It does not always work out as well as I had hoped. OK: I usually lose badly.

 
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Stefan Risthaus
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I agree with Andi. I cannot imagine a strategy that works with loans. Those are only to avoid the bankrupt of a player and his withdrawal out of the game.

A short analysis:
If you sell all of your stocks right at the beginning you have 150 P. in Water Frame and 170 P. in Spinning Jenny. I cannot ever imagine how you will burn that amount of money, take loans AND prosper afterwards to win the game. (However I am a guy of limited fantasy :-) ).

Another strategy may be more interesting, if you want to play tricks on the share value track: take a contract that you cannot compete with and go backwards two spaces during a production phase. Than later fulfill the contract with two ships and move backwards another two steps.
 
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Dave Eisen
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REAL TIGRIS wrote:
I agree with Andi. I cannot imagine a strategy that works with loans. Those are only to avoid the bankrupt of a player and his withdrawal out of the game.

A short analysis:
If you sell all of your stocks right at the beginning you have 150 P. in Water Frame and 170 P. in Spinning Jenny. I cannot ever imagine how you will burn that amount of money, take loans AND prosper afterwards to win the game. (However I am a guy of limited fantasy :-) ).

Another strategy may be more interesting, if you want to play tricks on the share value track: take a contract that you cannot compete with and go backwards two spaces during a production phase. Than later fulfill the contract with two ships and move backwards another two steps.


So I am reading that in fact loans are not a problem beyond the fact that you are already in trouble because you were out of money and had no shares and thus needed to take out a loan.

Thanks.
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