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Subject: % deck creation skill vs. % playing skill vs. % matchup vs % luck rss

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Max Martina
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We love this game, in part because of the asymmetric playstyle, dual click/economy mechanism, theme, and anticipation of turns, among other reasons. It's a fun game! Now obviously this is a question with no definitive answer but I'm curious as to the community's perspective on the relative mix of the above attributes in winning this game. (Assuming a competitive focus.) Take 2 decks per player (corp and runner) in a tournament setting. Where will the breakdown come for each of these variables say, for the top 8 at worlds, in winning the event?
% deck building(DB):
% playing skill(PS):
% favorable matchups between factions (FM):
% luck (L):

My stab at this? DB:50%|PS:35%|FM:5%|L:10%

Anyone else? Are there variables not considered that are crucial for winning?
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Chris M
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10% deck creation
60% skill
20% matchup
10% luck
 
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As far as luck, my answer is 20%:
http://boardgamegeek.com/thread/981431/netrunner-most-22-luc...

Edit: another way of answering the luck part of your question is to compute how likely the best player is to win the tournament vs. 2nd best, 3rd best, etc. Sorry for promoting my own threads, but my answer is here:
http://www.boardgamegeek.com/thread/1069165/how-often-tourna...

The bottom line is that the worlds tournament winner is only ~20% likely to be the actual best player in the pool.
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Kasper Lauest
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Deck-building: 20%
Skill: 55% (this is primarily a skillbased game, IMO)
Match-up: 10%
Luck: 15%

In other words, if you take an awesome player with mediocre decks, a poor match-up and a bit a bad luck, I would still favour that player over the duration of a whole tournament over a weak player who had the best decks, a a ton of luck and good match-ups. Of course there are always extreme examples. If you mulligan a 3 agenda hand into a hand of 5 agendas against an opponent running Legwork, then no amount of skill is probably gonna save you. Likewise, if you bring a terrible deck, you won't win either. For this to be a meaningful discussion I think we have to use an "all other things being equal" approach, in which case player skill is BY FAR the most important single factor for success in this game.
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Captain Frisk
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I think its a mistake to think that these %'s can really apply.

Luck I think should have a floor around 15-20%.

Matchup can range anywhere from 0% to 80%, but thats going to vary based on

Deckbuilding skill is somewhat a subset of matchup. It's trivial to demonstrate decks that straight up can not win (imagine a deck with minimal agenda density and nothing but cheap ETR ice vs. a deck with no ice breakers). If you've never sat down against a new player who didn't understand they needed breakers of all 3 types you'll know this to be true.

Above a certain deckbuilding skill ceiling, play skill generally dominates luck, but play skill has a ceiling as well.

If I sit down to play El-ad in tournament training mode, I would expect our games to be:

10-20% deckbuilding (we're probably experimenting with 1 side vs. a tuned tournament deck on the other)
20-40% matchup
10-20% play skill (errors will no doubt be made)
30-50% luck




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General Norris
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This is how I see it, in practice:

- Deckbuilding will matter very little as long as players have good, competitive decks.
- As long as both players keep up with the metagame and given the current state of the game, most matchups will be even or slighty favoured/disfavoured, like getting a poor draw that isn't game-ending. EXCEPTION: Surprising the opponent with a new deck is huge, but mainly because the other player will play incorrectly.
- A small degree of variance. Generally not particularly important, at worse it will give you a disfavouring similar to matchups.
- Everything else is skill.

I see no point in applying a "percentage" since there's no actual metodology behind it.
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Yoshi
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Agree with much here, though the luck factor will also vary depending on the amount of variance built into a deck. Many complain that NEH creates too much variance and can win stupidly by drawing just the right cards, no matter what your opponent does or plays. Other decks may be very low variance.
 
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Steven Tu
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I like how everyone is treating these numbers like they're scientific at all
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Derry Salewski
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23 45 67 21
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Grish Noren
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Deck > Skill > Matchup > Luck

Luck can easily screw the corp out of a game 10-20% I'd wager. Runner closer to 10% than 20%. I think those are acceptable margins.

If you don't build a good enough deck skill can't save you. I don't care if you're a pilot who knows how to pick the deck or an engineer who knows how to build them. If you don't have the tools in your toolbox, you don't have a chance.

Once you have the tools the best players have or at least enough competitive ones skill is the main divider.

Deck Building can overcome "matchup" as can skill, but I'd lump this in with luck really.

If you disagree look at Worlds 2nd Place. Minh out meta'd everyone, defeating even Dan with his corp deck. No one except spags had the tools to deal with the deck and so he was the only one who was able to use his skills to overcome this crazy deck because he was the only one who had the tools so that his skill had something to do. Know your battlefield and all that.
 
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Tuism wrote:
I like how everyone is treating these numbers like they're scientific at all
You don't think my "luck factor" above is scientific? You may or may not think my definition is meaningful (do you think it is?), but at least it can be mathematically estimated. Similarly, all the other factors can also be mathematically defined and then estimated statistically from a large pool of matches.
 
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Clyde W
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36 22 36
 
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Steven Tu
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rbelikov wrote:
Tuism wrote:
I like how everyone is treating these numbers like they're scientific at all
You don't think my "luck factor" above is scientific? You may or may not think my definition is meaningful (do you think it is?), but at least it can be mathematically estimated. Similarly, all the other factors can also be mathematically defined and then estimated statistically from a large pool of matches.


Interesting methodology, and I guess has merit.

Now if only those who laid claims on deckbuilding, matchup, skill, how many luck socks you have on at the time percentiles has at least a modicum of science behind it

4, 8, 15, 16, 23 and 42
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D. R.
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Tuism wrote:
rbelikov wrote:
Tuism wrote:
I like how everyone is treating these numbers like they're scientific at all
You don't think my "luck factor" above is scientific? You may or may not think my definition is meaningful (do you think it is?), but at least it can be mathematically estimated. Similarly, all the other factors can also be mathematically defined and then estimated statistically from a large pool of matches.


Interesting methodology, and I guess has merit.

Now if only those who laid claims on deckbuilding, matchup, skill, how many luck socks you have on at the time percentiles has at least a modicum of science behind it

4, 8, 15, 16, 23 and 42


Omg dude, this is totally random, but my dog suggested to me I should try these numbers in the next Mega Lotto!



I can't believe this, I am rich!

Now I can finally book that flight from Oceanic Airlines I always wanted to!
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Kevin Smit
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I don't think it's really possible to assign values like this with any accuracy, especially since they're fairly undefined.

For example, does deckbuilding mean the deckbuilding skill of the player himself/herself, or does it mean the composition of the deck going into a game? We have a whole database of decks, and enough strategy articles around that a player with 0 deckbuilding acumen can go online, find a deck, and do ok.

On the other hand, the composition of the deck itself can have a fairly large effect, and heavily influences matchup. This usually takes the form of avoiding glaring errors, like "my runner deck can't break code gates," but can be less obvious, such as "my runner deck doesn't have enough economy cards to reliably produce money through the mid game." If you have a glaring error in your deck its composition is going to affect you in a big way, but otherwise deckbuilding isn't something that is felt outside of its influence on matchup.

Skill and Matchup are also connected, I believe. When you have a larger disparity in skill as well as a lopsided matchup, the stronger player can mitigate some of the bad matchup if he has the disfavored deck, but will crush a weaker player if his deck has the advantage. If the players are even in skill, then matchup will have far more of an effect on the game than it otherwise would.

Luck gets mixed in too - if you have a lopsided matchup and players of vastly different skill with the stronger player having an advantage, it almost doesn't matter what they draw. But even in that situation, it only takes one hail mary Maker's Eye/ Legwork to close out a game. If you have players of equal skill and a roughly equal matchup, luck may be the deciding factor.

So taking that all into account, I would say
Deckbuilding 5%
Matchup 40%
Skill 20%
Luck 35%
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Aaron Percival
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A strange game. The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?
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Brigaldio wrote:
I don't think it's really possible to assign values like this with any accuracy, especially since they're fairly undefined...

[snip]

..I would say
Deckbuilding 5%
Matchup 40%
Skill 20%
Luck 35%
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Deck-Building is certainly important. If you don't know the intent of a deck, you're going to sometimes have problems. However, I'd say you can take semi-random cards and still put up a good fight. Because of this, I'd say skill is also important in Netrunner. But then, I often feel match-ups are a big factor here. There are just plain terrible match ups, so that would also have to be a big factor. And you can get just plain lucky sometimes.

So, to be boring, I'd give them all 25%.
 
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Bryant Smith
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I know I'm not the only one.

http://youtu.be/VDvr08sCPOc
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Vander Dlonk
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scifiantihero wrote:
23 45 67 21


That's my phone number.


 
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