I'm running a Law Dogs deck with a full house 4oK structure, 2 values at 14 and a few other values with multiples in clubs. I'm currently running 2 Bottom Dealings so I ran a little experiment. I ran 25 cards off the top 20 times checking the final five cards for hand strength each time. 13 times it came up two pair or lower. 7 times three of a kind or better, with 3 of those 7 pulling full houses or 4oK. So 65% of the time the card does what its supposed to, 20% of the time it could be better but still damaging to the opponent and 15% percent of the time I probably gave them a hand just as good or better than what I have. The full house percentages only increase as I get more off value permanents in play. Wondering how you guys feel about including this card in your shootier decks? And yes shootier is not a word.
- Last edited Wed Dec 17, 2014 12:00 am (Total Number of Edits: 1)
- Posted Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:59 pm
When talking percentages it's important to take the state of the deck into account - what's been taken out and what's still in.
As it happens, I was running some numbers on one of my decks earlier so I can compare it to yours. It has three key values with 12/13/13, which I think should make it a little shootier than 14/14/small chunks.
Anyway, with a sample size of 100,000 draws of 5 cards:
Dead Mans Hand: 0.001
Five of a Kind: 0.443
Straight Flush: 0.021
Four of a Kind: 6.813
Full House: 8.006
Three of a Kind: 27.380
Two Pair: 20.187
High Card: 4.368
So that's a 3-of-kind or lower about 82% of the time for a 5-card hand which simulates lowball or Bottom Dealin'. There's about a 14.8% chance of a "good" hand which is Full House or higher so around 1-in-7. It can certainly happen, but it shouldn't happen that often. 3/20 is 15%, so right around the same level that you saw, although with a larger sample size you might see those numbers shift down a bit.
The aim with Bottom Dealin' is that you're willing to gamble on a chance of a truly devastating result. 15% of the time it does comparatively little. But then 80% of the time it drops their hand rank considerably and they take massive casualties. If you'd rather have a consistent result, there's Coachwhip for that. I'm assuming you wouldn't play your Bottom Dealin' unless your opponent had a decent hand, no point wasting it on a cheating 3-of-kind Or, if you have spare cash you can use the newly spoiled "It's Not What You Know..." which has a large effect but costs you 2 rock. Also, you have to consider which card fits your poker structure better, especially since these are all Clubs that will go back in the deck.
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I found it to be an incredibly strong card. On our 2nd play I was destroyed from a 5 of a kind by 10 card draw (3 silver stud + 2 bonus from war painting or so, don't remember) with 2 copper redraw down to a pair or two pairs and thus lost two very valuable dudes both untapped a lot stronger than the whole other posse.
Sure there "is a chance" but you see the hand of the enemy up front and you see your hand so it is really a good card. Coachwhip did hurt my enemy but it did no where feel as painful.