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Subject: Weirdest Setups and Shortest Games? rss

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Rauli Kettunen
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I think I just experienced both of those in the same play today. First thing about the setup that caught my eye, only one Agent out among the 12 cards showing. Most of the games there's been a wide selection of Agents at the start. Which begs the question: Anybody had a setup come up with no Agents? Secondly, out of the 12 cards, 6 had a Free Action on them (including 2x Freemasons), 7 of 14 if you count the Mi-Go as one of the two flipped Permanent Events. As if that wasn't enough, you had the love triangle of Vampires-Society of Leopold-Third Section out, get Vamps, get SoC, get Third Section and remove SoC, then get Vamps? All sorts of options with those three.

As to the game itself, well, writing the above took longer than the game laugh .

Turn 1

Wednesday
Action 1: Place influence on Louise Michel
Action 2: Place inf on Duchess de Uzes

Friday
Action 1: Buy more influence
A2: Place influence on Infernal Machine

Turn 2

Wednesday
A1: Claim Michel (making him KttA due to potential points)
A2: Blocking Disc on Infernal Machine

Friday
A1: Flip Louise Michel Double Agent token
A2: Assassinate Wednesday's Main Agent

Both were Restorationists, so Friday wins 1-0 on the bonus point from Michel. Even short as it was, you can easily see what was possibly going on underneath the surface, Michel recruited, telling Wednesday about Friday's plans regarding the Infernal Machine, suggesting something should be done to hinder his claim on it, which was only a ruse to leave Wednesday more vulnerable and allow Michel to take him out devil .

Initial plan wasn't even to assassinate Wednesday, it was just to flip the DA token and take control of Michel, but as it turns out, the Hired Assassin and other bomb cards just ended in hand at the right time, bonus bomb from Michel helping as well.

Especially with Shoggoth also out, as a Resto, you want some buffer Agents to protect your Main Agent in case you want to score early points, so in that sense, taking Michel wasn't necessarily a bad move, especially since he was the only Agent that could be gotten (with Main Agent and Michel in the same city, could get an assassination out turn 3), just one of those times the DA odds went against Wednesday. And with Vampires, Shoggoth and Mi-Go out, scoring a quick royal assassination would give you points and you would have a good shot at making yourself insane with those Sanity symbol cards up for grabs, another quick ending potential for a Resto.
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Christopher Dearlove
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Chelmsford
Essex
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SoRCon 11 23-25 Feb 2018 Basildon UK http://www.sorcon.co.uk
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I doubt anyone will ever beat that for shortness of game.

As for how many agents, according to the rulebook (what I have to hand) there are 60 cards, 22 of which are agents, and 12 cities.

I happen to have a program that allows me to simulate such things easily, so from a hundred million games (which took me two minutes), the number of agents initially showing had these results. (The values in [] are estimated 95% confidence intervals.)


0 - 193552 ~ 0.00193552 [0.00192692, 0.00194415]
1 - 1890595 ~ 0.018906 [0.0188793, 0.0189327]
2 - 7802192 ~ 0.0780219 [0.0779694, 0.0780745]
3 - 17940946 ~ 0.179409 [0.179334, 0.179485]
4 - 25578988 ~ 0.25579 [0.255704, 0.255875]
5 - 23742573 ~ 0.237426 [0.237342, 0.237509]
6 - 14716423 ~ 0.147164 [0.147095, 0.147234]
7 - 6113592 ~ 0.0611359 [0.061089, 0.0611829]
8 - 1686449 ~ 0.0168645 [0.0168393, 0.0168897]
9 - 300286 ~ 0.00300286 [0.00299215, 0.0030136]
10 - 32397 ~ 0.00032397 [0.000320462, 0.000327516]
11 - 1965 ~ 1.965e-05 [1.88e-05, 2.05384e-05]
12 - 42 ~ 4.2e-07 [3.09315e-07, 5.69099e-07]


So a single agent will happen about 1.9% of the time, while no agents will happen about 0.19% of the time, which must have happened by now.

[This won't mean anything to anyone, it's just in case I need it later: sum(combin12(make_seq60{38,22}))]

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Rauli Kettunen
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Dearlove, nice post about the stats, wanted actually ask if anybody would care to calculate the odds, but ended up axing that bit, but BGG comes through once again cool .

I've seen Restos try to get 3 Mad tokens to end the game, sometimes succeeding (9-7 and 12-6 wins), sometimes not (one the first games I had two draws at different times, either one is a Mad token, I go insane and win, both times I pulled a Sane token yuk ). If you don't get rid of the starting Hired Assassin card on the first assassination (ideally getting an Assassinate Royalty Agent, Holmes for permanency), you can get two bombings done, best case (for Insanity finish), drawing 2 Mad counters. Now any cards with a Sanity counter when claimed could be a potential game ender. Triggering the game ending by reaching the required VP space has been the hardest method to achieve so far, death, insanity and the tracks are the most common, even Zombies have triggered it once.

A lot of the games (mostly 2-player), have ended with both on the same side, which probably is a reason why the Track End Game spaces have kicked in quite a bit. If you have one card that can move the track and I have three, I have much more control over when the marker will reach the End Game space, thus, even if we're on the same team, meaning both will get the same amount of bonus points, it's worth driving up the track because I'll have more control ultimately over when the track reaches the End Game space.
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