Recommend
6 
 Thumb up
 Hide
20 Posts

Terra Mystica: Fire & Ice» Forums » Strategy

Subject: Riverwalker opening statistics rss

Your Tags: Add tags
Popular Tags: [View All]
Robert
Germany
Bocholt
flag msg tools
badge
I paid 100 Geek Gold so that you can read this! :-)
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Riverwalker openings (data collected via http://mabrowning.github.io/tmstats/#; if you don't understand the abbreviations, look up the reference here: *click*)

The statistics I extracted only use 4p games played by players from the upper half in ranking (i.e. "Rating Quartile" is set to "Best + Good"). The data lines below leave out the repetitive "4p, Rat. 4,3" information. All observations should be taken with a grain of salt, as the sample sizes are quite small, and due to the expansion being still relatively new, a significant subset of the data comes from experimental games with all players still learning about how to work with/against the Riverwalkers.

Observation 1: Riverwalkers do much better than the average faction (no surprise ): while good players generally achieve 6.9VP more than the average in their games, as Riverwalkers they achieve an average 12.4VP advantage.
Desc. VP Margin Count
All 125.68 ± 0.14 6.91 ± 0.13 18339
RiverWalkers 134.69 ± 1.16 12.37 ± 0.98 247


Observation 2: Building a temple in round 1 seems to be a good idea - we'll ignore the 2TE opening due to small sample size.
Desc. VP Margin Count
0TE 128.21 ± 3.65 9.00 ± 3.12 32
TE 135.75 ± 1.21 12.85 ± 1.04 213
2TE 125.50 ± 11.50 14.35 ± 8.85 2


Observation 3: Most temple builders also managed to build two dwellings, but only building one isn't bad either.
Desc. VP Margin Count
DTE 129.00 ± 3.73 8.93 ± 3.44 22
2DTE 136.04 ± 2.77 15.05 ± 2.05 49
3DTE 136.66 ± 1.51 12.32 ± 1.34 128
4DTE 140.40 ± 5.57 17.12 ± 5.55 10


Observation 4: While starting with the priest bonus tile (and thus unlocking a second terrain) seems like a great way to start as Riverwalkers (and is the most common one), it's actually not the best. BON2 (Cult + 4c) beats it easily. The two workers from BON6 also seem to be at least as helpful as a priest.
Desc. VP Margin Count
BON2 (Cult) 140.94 ± 2.80 17.22 ± 2.06 24
BON3 (6C) 137.85 ± 3.81 11.87 ± 2.93 22
BON4 (Ship+1) 128.68 ± 4.91 11.02 ± 4.92 20
BON5 (3pw,1W) 133.31 ± 3.80 11.39 ± 2.70 32
BON6 (SA/SH VP) 135.06 ± 5.79 15.43 ± 3.95 16
BON7 (TP VP) 134.25 ± 5.45 13.85 ± 6.86 4
BON8 (1P) 133.18 ± 1.83 11.13 ± 1.66 92
BON9 (D VP) 138.62 ± 4.43 11.80 ± 4.89 14
BON10 (Ship VP) 135.72 ± 3.07 13.21 ± 2.65 23


Observation 5: While most popular, the combination of the priest bonus tile with building a temple in round 1 isn't an obvious winner compared to BON2 resp. BON6.
Desc. VP Margin Count
TE
BON2 (Cult) 140.59 ± 2.91 16.49 ± 2.01 23
TE
BON3 (6C) 137.85 ± 3.81 11.87 ± 2.93 22
TE
BON4 (Ship+1) 133.04 ± 5.05 15.08 ± 5.34 16
TE
BON5 (3pw,1W) 134.51 ± 4.05 10.95 ± 2.94 29
TE
BON6 (SA/SH VP) 134.77 ± 6.80 16.00 ± 4.62 13
TE
BON7 (TP VP) 134.25 ± 5.45 13.85 ± 6.86 4
TE
BON8 (1P) 133.71 ± 1.97 11.38 ± 1.79 72
TE
BON9 (D VP) 139.82 ± 4.61 12.42 ± 5.24 13
TE
BON10 (Ship VP) 137.36 ± 3.08 14.02 ± 2.84 21


Observation 6: Regarding the selection of their first favor tile, Riverwalkers follow the common wisdom and pick FAV11 (Earth1, D>>2) and it seems to pay off.
Desc. VP Margin Count
FAV6 (W2) 134.00 ± 9.88 8.63 ± 5.74 4
FAV7 (E2) 123.20 ± 7.36 9.24 ± 7.38 5
FAV8 (A2) 127.83 ± 8.33 12.66 ± 7.95 7
FAV9 (F1) 127.53 ± 4.18 12.93 ± 3.95 15
FAV10 (W1) 120.75 ± 3.20 2.25 ± 7.03 4
FAV11 (E1) 137.60 ± 1.27 13.40 ± 1.10 185
FAV12 (A1) 107.00 ± NaN 9.70 ± NaN 1
9 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Patar Absurdus the Shananigator
United States
Carrollton
TX
flag msg tools
"Gird Up Your Loins, Like a Man!" ~God to Job
badge
"We're put on this earth to do a job. And each of us gets the time we get to do it. And when this life is over and you stand in front of the Lord... Well, you try tellin' him it was all some Frenchman's joke." ~Betsy Solverson
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
You need to do this with all the new factions!

My copy of the expansion is coming Wednesday...
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Robert
Germany
Bocholt
flag msg tools
badge
I paid 100 Geek Gold so that you can read this! :-)
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Redward wrote:
You need to do this with all the new factions!
Maybe I will, but one at a time.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Brian B.
United States
Boston
Massachusetts
flag msg tools
badge
char(filter(1,[1 -1],[66 5 0 -39 82 -3 -12 8 8 -82]))
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Great stuff! The thing that surprises me the most is this:

DocCool wrote:

Observation 4: While starting with the priest bonus tile (and thus unlocking a second terrain) seems like a great way to start as Riverwalkers (and is the most common one), it's actually not the best. BON2 (Cult + 4c) beats it easily. The two workers from BON6 also seem to be at least as helpful as a priest.


I would have guessed that unlocking a second terrain is exactly how the RWs want to start. Maybe the cult tile comes out better because it's primarily chosen only if the round 1 cult bonus is achievable with that tile?
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Rhett Morgan
United States
Washington
Dist of Columbia
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
This is some great work. The margins are really high for a lot of this but it's as good as you can expect at this point.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Robert
Germany
Bocholt
flag msg tools
badge
I paid 100 Geek Gold so that you can read this! :-)
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Prodigaldax wrote:
This is some great work. The margins are really high for a lot of this but it's as good as you can expect at this point.
I hope what you call margins are the numbers behind the +/-, and not the column "Margin".

Observation 4 was a surprise for me too. Actually checking this was the reason why I started this analysis - after all Petri wrote that this opening could be the ultimate killer for some opponent. But even though it's only 24 samples, 17.22 +/- 2.06 (standard deviation 10.1) seems to be really better than 11.13 +/- 1.66 (standard deviation 15.9).

Of course it might be just the difference between "winning by 20 points" and "winning by 12 points".
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Kyle James
United States
Oregon
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmb
Petri described an opening that specifically went for the throat of another player before they can even respond. I think this would lower the riverwalkers overall score and margin but make it more likely to win if that other player had a good faction for the scoring set up compared to the other players your up against. Or as described, in a tournament setting, if your specifically targeting one player because they are doing well overall in the tournament....
4 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Robin Zigmond
United Kingdom
Durham
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
bluebird503 wrote:
Petri described an opening that specifically went for the throat of another player before they can even respond. I think this would lower the riverwalkers overall score and margin but make it more likely to win if that other player had a good faction for the scoring set up compared to the other players your up against. Or as described, in a tournament setting, if your specifically targeting one player because they are doing well overall in the tournament....


At least the current league format has all games simultaneously, so it is difficult to decide who is doing the best when your game is still in round 1. You could of course just go for the highest-rated player, if that is your favoured way to play

(Please let's not start a discussion as to whether you can stall a game in order to see who does best in the other games before deciding which other player's terrain to pick. In any case, you'll have to make this decision early enough that you won't get any real information before you get booted )
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Petri Savola
Finland
Espoo
Unspecified
flag msg tools
designer
mbmbmbmbmb
Yes, priest bonus tile on round 1 is probably not best for getting a high score, but it's good for 2 things:
* Spread out quickly to connect areas and guarantee space for expansion
* Take key areas from opponents

If you have enough space and guaranteed connection without priest bonus tile then my first pick would most likely be bon6 (2 workers). Choose a color which has access to 2 areas without unlocking another terrain and then on first turn build temple, trading post and 2 dwellings (they cost exactly 15c and 8w).
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Phillip Wood
New Zealand
Auckland
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
If the text in your post all lines up correctly when you are in typing screen but displays differently once actually posted then you should be able to use the [c ] & [/c ] tags (without spaces obviously) to make it display properly.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Robert
Germany
Bocholt
flag msg tools
badge
I paid 100 Geek Gold so that you can read this! :-)
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Petri wrote:
If you have enough space and guaranteed connection without priest bonus tile then my first pick would most likely be bon6 (2 workers). Choose a color which has access to 2 areas without unlocking another terrain and then on first turn build temple, trading post and 2 dwellings (they cost exactly 15c and 8w).
This was achieved in five games, and in three of them using BON6:
Desc. VP Margin Count
2DTPTE
BON2 (Cult) 149.00 ± NaN 5.20 ± NaN 1
2DTPTE
BON5 (3pw,1W) 124.00 ± NaN 3.70 ± NaN 1
2DTPTE
BON6 (SA/SH VP) 136.00 ± 9.54 15.73 ± 0.79 3


Woodenman wrote:
If the text in your post all lines up correctly when you are in typing screen but displays differently once actually posted then you should be able to use the [c ] & [/c ] tags (without spaces obviously) to make it display properly.
The tables do use the code formatting - should be obvious from looking so tidy.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Merudo
United States
Asheville
NC
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmb
I'm also curious on which color is the most popular for the Riverwalker to start with.

In my experience Red & Green are the best due to the presence of an available hex of the same color with shipping 1. Moreover all 3 games with best scoring for Riverwalker have been with the Red & Green colors.

I'm curious though if Green Riverwalkers are doing better than Red or it's the other way around.

Also, I suspect many people who took the Priest bonus tile did so because either they started with an inferior color, or because they got cut off from the usual Green/Red shipping hex.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Robert
Germany
Bocholt
flag msg tools
badge
I paid 100 Geek Gold so that you can read this! :-)
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Merudo wrote:
I'm also curious on which color is the most popular for the Riverwalker to start with.
A very relevant question. I guess right now only Juho can answer it. The same question is relevant to all the other expansion factions too, though probably less important in case of the Volcano factions.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Nikolai
Germany
Münster
flag msg tools
Hidden trackable information in games sucks!
badge
I play games for fun and pursuing the goal to win the game is fun! :)
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Merudo wrote:
I'm also curious on which color is the most popular for the Riverwalker to start with.


That obviously greatly depends on which of the three maps you use.

Merudo wrote:

In my experience Red & Green are the best due to the presence of an available hex of the same color with shipping


So you are probably talking about the original base game map?
Or maybe also about the revised base game map (from the expansion)?

On the original base game map, for green and red there are as many as two different starting hexes with another (different) matching one within shipping reach 1.
On the revised base game map, it gets even better for red: One of the two locations is a water-triplet where you can reach two different red hexes from the middle one with shipping reach 1. The revised map also features a new such triplet for yellow.
On both maps, there is a sinlge starting hex with another matching one within shipping reach 1 for grey.

On the expansion map, there are 2 "double-hex-locations" for as many as three colors: green, yellow and brown - but the ones for brown don't look so attractive, while the ones for green look particularly good due to their ease of connecting both rivers. There are no water-connection triplets on this map.
Red and grey have 1 "double-hex location" on the expansion map.

Merudo wrote:
1. Moreover all 3 games with best scoring for Riverwalker have been with the Red & Green colors.


Which 3 games are you referring to, games from your gaming group? Or some online games from Juho's site? If the latter, which ones?
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Nikolai
Germany
Münster
flag msg tools
Hidden trackable information in games sucks!
badge
I play games for fun and pursuing the goal to win the game is fun! :)
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
So I'd say the generally most attractive colors for Riverwalkers just based on the map should be

green on the original base game map (which seems somewhat more attractive than red due to where the other green hexes are relative to the 2 double-hex-locations an how easy it looks to connect them),

red on the revised base game map (with green or yellow in second place) and

green on the expansion map (with yellow in second place).
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Merudo
United States
Asheville
NC
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmb
Darador wrote:
So I'd say the generally most attractive colors for Riverwalkers just based on the map should be

green on the original base game map (which seems somewhat more attractive than red due to where the other green hexes are relative to the 2 double-hex-locations an how easy it looks to connect them),

red on the revised base game map (with green or yellow in second place) and

green on the expansion map (with yellow in second place).


You are right, I was talking about the original map. I agree with your rankings for the other maps.

Also, the three top scoring games I mentioned are from Juho's website:

3p: 198 by Nightcrawler - Green on Original map
4p: 179 by rafalimaz - Red on Revised map
5p: 161 by aquacat - Green on Original map
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Nikolai
Germany
Münster
flag msg tools
Hidden trackable information in games sucks!
badge
I play games for fun and pursuing the goal to win the game is fun! :)
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
With regards to the discussion if Riverwalkers are overpowered, now that I have had a closer look at the different maps with regards to Riverwalkers, they at least seem to be on the revised base game map...

At least I am pretty convinced that I'd happily pick Riverwalkers on red as first player in almost any setup on this map.

Often being able to build 3 Dwellings in round 1 without the need for a priest (maybe just 2 Dwellings when one of my three hexes gets snatched away) just seems massive.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
test tester
msg tools
Is there a chance for a revisited Version of this for the nerfed Version of the Riverwalkers?

 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Robert
Germany
Bocholt
flag msg tools
badge
I paid 100 Geek Gold so that you can read this! :-)
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
ttester wrote:
Is there a chance for a revisited Version of this for the nerfed Version of the Riverwalkers?
Yes, there is a chance, but I doubt it's going to happen anytime soon, as it's not a priority faction for me.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Inco Planje
United Kingdom
flag msg tools
I second an updated set of statistics.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Front Page | Welcome | Contact | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertise | Support BGG | Feeds RSS
Geekdo, BoardGameGeek, the Geekdo logo, and the BoardGameGeek logo are trademarks of BoardGameGeek, LLC.