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Subject: Assuming a colour clue on multiple cards is always out of order rss

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Shaun Chen
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I want to open this discussion as by my calculations my above statement holds true, however as there are better players out there than me I'd like to hear opinions.

Under normal conditions, if someone is to give you 3 clues on colour. Is it correct to assume these 3 coloured cards are in order OR out of order (numerically)?

Statistically speaking, you would assume they are out of order because there is a much higher chance the next card is not the correct card. Yes? No?

Say I played the first card and it was a B1, the next card now has a (2/9) chance of being correct (assuming no other discards).
 
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Robert Sell
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I'm not following your question here.

When someone identifies a quantity of x colored cards they will identify the individuals. They don't just say you have 3 blue cards, rather they will say these three cards are blue and point to what ones are blue.
 
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Shaun Chen
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Yes but do you assume that the blue cards are playable in order, from left to right (ALL of them) or just assume that the left most card is playable and the 2nd card from the left is NOT
 
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Robert Sell
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You are free to rearrange your hand as needed to remember how information is relevant in context to new information.
 
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Sean McCarthy
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If they are out of order, I expect to receive another clue before I make an illegal play. In the absence of followup clues, I assume that they are in order.
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Robb Effinger
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Skasian wrote:

Statistically speaking, you would assume they are out of order because there is a much higher chance the next card is not the correct card. Yes? No?

Say I played the first card and it was a B1, the next card now has a (2/9) chance of being correct (assuming no other discards).


If you somehow knew that three of your cards were blue, then, by the numbers, the odds that they are in order is low, and playing the second one is risky. Actually, in this case, playing the first one is risky - how do you even know that one plays!?

This is why you can't look at the odds - it's ignoring information. You not only know that you have 3 blue cards, but you know that someone else thought that it was a good clue to tell you about all of them. If they just wanted you to play the first one, they probably could have waited until you discarded the other two. Or they could have given you a clue about rank. So what made them decide to clue you about color? Probably that you can play multiple of them. (And, if that's not that case, then as Sean says, I'd expect more information)
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Shaun Chen
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Robb wrote:
[q="Skasian"]
If they just wanted you to play the first one, they probably could have waited until you discarded the other two. Or they could have given you a clue about rank. So what made them decide to clue you about color? Probably that you can play multiple of them. (And, if that's not that case, then as Sean says, I'd expect more information)


Thanks that was the reasoning I was looking for.
 
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Tor Sverre Lund
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Skasian wrote:
I want to open this discussion as by my calculations my above statement holds true, however as there are better players out there than me I'd like to hear opinions.

Under normal conditions, if someone is to give you 3 clues on colour. Is it correct to assume these 3 coloured cards are in order OR out of order (numerically)?

Statistically speaking, you would assume they are out of order because there is a much higher chance the next card is not the correct card. Yes? No?

Say I played the first card and it was a B1, the next card now has a (2/9) chance of being correct (assuming no other discards).


If you are assuming anything like this, or have made a deal to do this beforehand, you're not really playing by the rules. You should start from the same side and go left-right or right-left every time, pointing to each card that matches your hint. That's all the information that is supposed to be given (and received). You already have tons of information available, since you see all the other players' cards and the discard, so just saying something like "your two middle cards are blue" might already give you lots of hints dependent on what other blue cards are seen played/discarded/in hands. Combine that with the other piece of information: your other two cards are NOT blue, and you'll quickly see that every single hint is a lot more powerful than what you might first notice on the surface. You are of course free to play in any way you like, but bottom line is that a "lowest to highest" assumption/arrangement like this makes the game a LOT easier.
 
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Dylan Thurston
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Gawain wrote:
Skasian wrote:
...Under normal conditions, if someone is to give you 3 clues on colour. Is it correct to assume these 3 coloured cards are in order OR out of order (numerically)?...


If you are assuming anything like this, or have made a deal to do this beforehand, you're not really playing by the rules. ...
Gawain, I think you're misunderstanding Skasian's suggestion. I agree that it would be cheating if the order in which you point out the cards in someone else's hand matters. But I believe Skasian is talking about the possible convention that, when you're clued about 3 cards, assuming the the newest card is playable, and then assuming the next-newest after that is playable next.
 
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Tor Sverre Lund
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That's definitely not the idea I got from the rest of the replies, talking about rearranging the cards in their hands, and then assuming if they don't get a new hint then they are in order, etc.
 
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Dylan Thurston
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That interpretation hadn't occurred to me, and I just reread the thread. Oddtime may be making that interpretation, but I don't think the OP or other posters. It doesn't make any sense to talk about probabilities and the like if you just point the cards out in the order you like.

(Thanks for saying what you did, oddtime's comments just didn't make any sense to me earlier.)
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Robb Effinger
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Gawain wrote:
That's definitely not the idea I got from the rest of the replies, talking about rearranging the cards in their hands, and then assuming if they don't get a new hint then they are in order, etc.


Gawain, I'm sure that my reply and SevenSpirit's are not suggesting that cards are pointed to in any particular order. (Personally, I normally point to all cards simultaneously)

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Pierre Beri
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This sounds definitely conventional. There are a lot of reasons why you would be clued about 3 or more cards based on colour (especially in rainbow mode).
Assuming the second card is the next playable is not logical, only conventional.
 
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Robb Effinger
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beri2 wrote:
This sounds definitely conventional. There are a lot of reasons why you would be clued about 3 or more cards based on colour (especially in rainbow mode).
Assuming the second card is the next playable is not logical, only conventional.


It may depend on which mode you're playing - playing the 55 card variant, which is what I mostly played when learning, it is logical - in that mode, you need to play around 1.5 cards per clue, so it is logical to assume that a clue that targets multiple cards allows you to play multiple cards. Most of the other variants only require around one card per clue, so you might get different conclusions.
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ben small
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Standard statistics and probabilities should be completely ignored. The whole focus must be on the logical reason WHY you would be given each clue.

Saving important cards like 5's is best done with a color clue at the time the new card slot is playable. Should only ever play the newest card, and wait for more info before playing anymore.

This method is absolutely vital when playing multicolor. You can do ok with chainplay method in regular game, but it is still not as effective and a very bad habbit for when you want to evolve to multicolor.
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