Bimmy Jim
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A single 50% shot at getting 1 billion dollars?

Or;

Ten 5% chances at getting 1 billion dollars? (Yes you can win more than once).

Poll
Would you rather a single 50% chance at getting $1 billion? Or ten 5% chances?
One single 50% chance
Ten 5% chances
      99 answers
Poll created by BimmyJim
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¡dn ʇǝƃ ʇ,uɐɔ ı puɐ uǝllɐɟ ǝʌ,ı
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5% is 1 in 20, so I'd probably take 50% even with 5% for twenty chances.
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Chip Crawford
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I might change my answer...

If I win a billion dollars in the first 5% roll...do I get the other 4 chances too?
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¡dn ʇǝƃ ʇ,uɐɔ ı puɐ uǝllɐɟ ǝʌ,ı
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Yes, it seems so by the way the question is worded.

But why would you need more than a billion dollars? whistle
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Scott Lewis
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I'd rather take the 50% chance.

With one 50% chance, you have a 50% chance of not getting it.

With any single 5% chance, you have a 95% chance of not getting it. However, the chances of not getting it all 10 times is .95*.95*.95... 10 times (IE, .95^10), which comes out to about a 60% chance of NOT getting it. So you have about a 10% higher chance with just the one pull.

However, if you get 14 or more tries, then you have better odds with the multiple 5% chances. (13 tries is a 51% chance of failure, 14 tries is a 48% chance of failure, or 52% chance of success).

MABBY wrote:
5% is 1 in 20, so I'd probably take 50% even with 5% for twenty chances.

For what it's worth, with 20 chances, your overall odds would be about 64% to win.
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Scott Lewis
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If I did the math right, too, the chances of winning exactly twice with the ten 5% chances is about 7%. Not horrible odds, considering the reward, but not great. (three wins would be a lot smaller, of course).
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Josh Jennings
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sigmazero13 wrote:
If I did the math right, too, the chances of winning exactly twice with the ten 5% chances is about 7%. Not horrible odds, considering the reward, but not great. (three wins would be a lot smaller, of course).


Yeah. Since $1 billion would set you up for life I don't see the point in risking the lower chance of any payout in order to go for the slim chance of multiple billions.
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Billy McBoatface
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thermogimp wrote:
Yeah. Since $1 billion would set you up for life...

You have meager dreams.
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Chris B
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Alright, I'll take the 50% chance of winning once.

Here goes nothing...

1custom2{Congratulations you are a WINNER!!!!;I'm sorry, you didn't win the billion.} -> ( Congratulations you are a WINNER!!!!) -> ( Congratulations you are a WINNER!!!!)
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  • 679962. SybotCB
  • 1custom2{Congratulations you are a WINNER!!!!;I'm sorry, you didn't win the billion.} =
  • ( Congratulations you are a WINNER!!!!) =
  • ( Congratulations you are a WINNER!!!!)
  • Wed Mar 11, 2015 7:49 pm
Chris B
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SybotCB wrote:
Alright, I'll take the 50% chance of winning once.

Here goes nothing...

SybotCB previously rolled 1custom2{Congratulations you are a WINNER!!!!;I'm sorry, you didn't win the billion.} = ( Congratulations you are a WINNER!!!!) = ( Congratulations you are a WINNER!!!!)



Woohooo!!! Should I send you my mailing address for you to send my billion dollars?
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How tall is justice?
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SybotCB wrote:
SybotCB wrote:
Alright, I'll take the 50% chance of winning once.

Here goes nothing...

SybotCB previously rolled 1custom2{Congratulations you are a WINNER!!!!;I'm sorry, you didn't win the billion.} = ( Congratulations you are a WINNER!!!!) = ( Congratulations you are a WINNER!!!!)



Woohooo!!! Should I send you my mailing address for you to send my billion dollars?

Someone will fax you the cash.
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Larry Levy
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sigmazero13 wrote:
I'd rather take the 50% chance.

With one 50% chance, you have a 50% chance of not getting it.

With any single 5% chance, you have a 95% chance of not getting it. However, the chances of not getting it all 10 times is .95*.95*.95... 10 times (IE, .95^10), which comes out to about a 60% chance of NOT getting it. So you have about a 10% higher chance with just the one pull.

Yup, did the same analysis and came to the same conclusion. The key is that winning 1 billion dollars once gives me everything I could possibly need. So I'd much rather increase my chances of winning at least one time (the first option) than increase my chances of winning multiple times (the second option).
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Mc Jarvis
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Is this a real billion, or is it just a sum with a future value of a billion?
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Kevin J
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A similar question passed through my mind; would you rather have a 50% chance to win one million dollars, or a 5% chance to win a hundred million dollars? The expectation value of the latter is tenfold that of the prior, but I suspect that other factors outweigh the raw arithmetic.

(Too lazy to make a poll on my tablet)
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Scott Lewis
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tatoolo wrote:
A similar question passed through my mind; would you rather have a 50% chance to win one million dollars, or a 5% chance to win a hundred million dollars? The expectation value of the latter is tenfold that of the prior, but I suspect that other factors outweigh the raw arithmetic.

(Too lazy to make a poll on my tablet)

I'd probably go with the 1 million. While not quite on the scale as 1 billion (or even 100 million), it would be enough for me to pay off my house, and have plenty left over for savings. Maybe not enough that I could live off the interest forever, but enough where I wouldn't have to worry about too much if I wasn't stupid with how I spent it.
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Jorge Montero
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The trick is that the answer is different if I am the only one that gets the chance, or it's everyone in the country. In the second case, you have to think about the brutal devaluation of the dollar, as 50% of the population becomes a billionaire.

If I did not win the billion, the extra money out there, plus some skills on things people want to do, would make me go back up in value relatively quickly.
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J.L. Robert
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I'd take the 50% chance.

One shot...get it over with. Don't taunt me with multiple grabs at the brass ring.
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