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The Resistance: Hostile Intent» Forums » General

Subject: Any reason to fail missions? rss

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Dan L
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My group and I just tried the Hunter Module for the first time last weekend. Most people were intrigued by the new rules, and so the game began with nine players.

The first couple games were filled with a lot of arguing and confusion, because the investigator could potentially be lying about what he revealed, etc. However, what especially ended up happening is that most of the spies ended up succeeding the missions no matter what. The reason was that even if the Resistance won, the chance of finding the spy chief was incredibly low -- essentially 1/8, since none of the spies were giving ANY information. Even every vote got approved too.

So one of the games just went like that. The Spy Hunter failed three times, and then the Resistance Hunter managed to nail the chief and win the game.

Then this same process repeated for the next couple games. No one cared about voting, since it didn't matter. The teams didn't matter. The mission successes didn't matter because they always succeeded. Then it just came down to hunting and pure luck.

In the end we just decided to switch back to Avalon/Assassin module rules. Is there something we're missing here?
 
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Simon Kamber
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CouchTomato wrote:
My group and I just tried the Hunter Module for the first time last weekend. Most people were intrigued by the new rules, and so the game began with nine players.

The first couple games were filled with a lot of arguing and confusion, because the investigator could potentially be lying about what he revealed, etc. However, what especially ended up happening is that most of the spies ended up succeeding the missions no matter what. The reason was that even if the Resistance won, the chance of finding the spy chief was incredibly low -- essentially 1/8, since none of the spies were giving ANY information. Even every vote got approved too.

So one of the games just went like that. The Spy Hunter failed three times, and then the Resistance Hunter managed to nail the chief and win the game.

Then this same process repeated for the next couple games. No one cared about voting, since it didn't matter. The teams didn't matter. The mission successes didn't matter because they always succeeded. Then it just came down to hunting and pure luck.

In the end we just decided to switch back to Avalon/Assassin module rules. Is there something we're missing here?


Haven't seen that pattern. But it seems to me that by the time the spies get to choose, the resistance will have made 3 guesses baes on five investigations. Wouldn't most games end in resistance victory?
 
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Dan L
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So the chances of success starting from Mission 3 are 1/8, then 1/7, then 1/6, assuming you can't trust the investigators. That's a 3/8, or 37.5% net chance of success.

If those fail, then the spies start with a 2/5 shot (there are two spy chiefs) because they already know who the hunter is. That's a 40% chance.

So overall, the Spies do have a better chance. The investigator can mess up those odds... especially if a hunter (either side) is leader... but then that just makes it even more random.
 
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Simon Kamber
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CouchTomato wrote:
So the chances of success starting from Mission 3 are 1/8, then 1/7, then 1/6, assuming you can't trust the investigators. That's a 3/8, or 37.5% net chance of success.

If those fail, then the spies start with a 2/5 shot (there are two spy chiefs) because they already know who the hunter is. That's a 40% chance.

So overall, the Spies do have a better chance. The investigator can mess up those odds... especially if a hunter (either side) is leader... but then that just makes it even more random.


But does the assumption that you can never trust the investigators hold true? It seems to me that the resistance should be able to do better than purely random.
 
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Christian K
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I don't think your calculations are correct, did you remember that the spy leader will never guess for another spy?
 
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Dan L
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Dulkal wrote:
But does the assumption that you can never trust the investigators hold true? It seems to me that the resistance should be able to do better than purely random.


You can trust the investigators 2/3 times actually. But that's still very hard to calculate into the probability. When they investigate though, they have the same odds of finding the enemy chief (1/9, 1/8, 1/7, 1/6).

I guess one way to combat this strategy is for the resistance chiefs to both reveal who they are to the hunter at the first attempt. That reduces the odds significantly (it's now 50%).

Muemmelmann wrote:
I don't think your calculations are correct, did you remember that the spy leader will never guess for another spy?


You mean the spy hunter? Yes. That's why it's 2/5. Because 6 Resistance members, -1 for the already revealed hunter.
 
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Jamie Woodhouse
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CouchTomato wrote:
I guess one way to combat this strategy is for the resistance chiefs to both reveal who they are to the hunter at the first attempt. That reduces the odds significantly (it's now 50%).


How would the Hunter know the players claiming to be Resistance Chiefs, are what they say they are? Could some of the other spies also make that claim?

Am I missing something?
 
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Jacob Beddingfield
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The other spies COULD NOT make that claim. You cannot (at risk of being called out for cheating) lie TO the investigator. The basis of this idea (of showing Hunter who their Chief is) is to give the Resistance Hunter the Investigator and having him investigate the Resistance Chief. (After all, you don't want the spies knowing your Chief)

The flaw in this is (unless I missed something) the Chief could hand this information to a spy,
 
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