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Zombicide: Black Plague» Forums » General

Subject: After market speculation? rss

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chris saman
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It's not my intention to start a huge debate, but with the popularity of the kickstarter, do you think there will be a market for some of the exclusives. I'm not thinking of price gouging, but a fair price to help offset the cost of the base game and currency conversion (Canadian dollar is quite low now). is it too much of a hassle? Thanks
 
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Andy Szymas
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It won't be as valuable as Season 1, by any means. If you want to look at a comparison, just google the ebay prices of Season 2/3 exclusives. There's a bit of profit, but not much.

For example, right now on Ebay, you can get Zombicide Season 3 Benny for 15-20 bucks. Cost 10 bucks during the KS.

Season 2 Dakota is 30-50 bucks on Ebay. So if you're willing to buy and sit on it for a year or two, you might be able to get 3 times your value.
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Joe Crane
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There are even more backers this time around. And everyone is going to get the KS exclusives. But if you were planning on selling the extras thats still going to cover your cost difference from online stores if you get 15 for them, or 10 even. And price gouge all you want, if people want people buy, they are just mad that people don't sell for what they want to pay for them.
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Terence Lee
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Just take into account though that eBay/PayPal take about 15% off the sale.
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Joshua Leslie
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mlinhardt73 wrote:
I don't expect the resell market to have much to offer this time. I believe to a large degree that ship has sailed for this line.


I don't think it's going to offer a whole lot, but I also think that if you sold a $100 pledge piece meal, offering the exclusive survivors for $10, and the base game and non-exclusive stretch goal add-ons for a little bit under MSRP, you'd still more than double your money.
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chris saman
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Ultimately, I'd like to keep the game, and sell some of the exclusive extras (too many survivors imho) and be real happy if I came close to breaking even.
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Michael J.
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I think a cautious assumption is that by selling a 100$ pledge you will get at least 100$ profit after deducting all costs and ebay fees.
 
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Thargan
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Probably better to hang on to things until the inevitable season 2 hits and brings in backers who missed out on this kickstarter. As, in theory, there should be more demand and that generally means higher prices.
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Joshua Leslie
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Exo Desta wrote:
Arcturus1979 wrote:
I think a cautious assumption is that by selling a 100$ pledge you will get at least 100$ profit after deducting all costs and ebay fees.


This is why 10,000+ pledges huh.

shake


No, clearly most people who back the game are doing so to get the game. But, a lot of backers get a second copy, with the intent to sell it, as any profits made help offset the cost of the set that they are buying.
I understand completionists who find out about a game later not liking exclusive add-on content going for outrageous amounts. But really, the more people who buy extra copies, the more copies of exclusive characters are out there, meaning that supply will be better able to meet demand, and the lower the prices will stay.
 
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Max Maloney
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Exo Desta wrote:
I'd be really curious to find out the actual number of backers versus pledges.

At the time of this posting, we are at 11,710 total backer.

693 are Huntsman level.
900 are Knight level early bird.
9,811 are regular Knight level.

This leaves 306 backers who are probably pledged at $1 to wait and see.

This accounts for $1,667,106. Since we have $1,862,323 in total pledges, that is an additional $195,067 in add-ons/additional base pledges. That is only $17.10 per backer (ignoring the presumed $1 backers).

Long story short, so far we are probably not looking at tons of extra pledges. But that could change radically in the last couple days when the stretch goals hit their peak and the value is at maximum.
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Max Maloney
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It doesn't matter even for early bird pledges. If you have an early bird pledge, additional pledges you add cost $140 each instead of $150. Thiago confirmed this.
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Joshua Leslie
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Exo Desta wrote:
Coyotenomad wrote:
Exo Desta wrote:
Arcturus1979 wrote:
I think a cautious assumption is that by selling a 100$ pledge you will get at least 100$ profit after deducting all costs and ebay fees.


This is why 10,000+ pledges huh.

shake


No, clearly most people who back the game are doing so to get the game. But, a lot of backers get a second copy, with the intent to sell it, as any profits made help offset the cost of the set that they are buying.
I understand completionists who find out about a game later not liking exclusive add-on content going for outrageous amounts. But really, the more people who buy extra copies, the more copies of exclusive characters are out there, meaning that supply will be better able to meet demand, and the lower the prices will stay.


I'd be really curious to find out the actual number of backers versus pledges.

But yeah I can see the value in such a large project. All those SGs brings on the drool. Just too bad that we are selling eachother out, really, in the long run. Kind of like.. monopolizing a corner of the market. Except, we're doing it versus our own kin, kinda. Folks who share our same enthusiasms, who we sort of share this unspoken bond with.

Just seems wrong.

I suppose that's economics for you, though.


Can you explain more what you mean by selling each other out in the long run? I don't really understand the context. Selling out other people backing by increasing the supply so that secondary market prices are lower? Or selling out people who are going to want the game when they discover it in a year or two but can't get exclusives any way except the secondary market? Something else entirely?

I think it's important to remember currently, there isn't a limited stock of exclusive figures that backers are buying up right now, so that they can sell them later. The exclusive figures will never be available general retail. CMON is going to do one production run and make a number of those figures based on what backers pledge for, plus extras to fix any distribution mistakes and extras for conventions. The number of backers is going to be whatever it is. The more extras that people buy, either with the intent of using or reselling, increases the total number of figures out there, which in theory should make it easier for someone who missed the Kick Starter to eventually get what they want.
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Angelus Seniores
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he means that you would be selling from gamer to fellow gamer, and it doesnt feel right to be making an excessive profit on fellow gamers.
 
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Joshua Leslie
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Angelsenior wrote:
he means that you would be selling from gamer to fellow gamer, and it doesnt feel right to be making an excessive profit on fellow gamers.


Thanks. That makes sense.
I get that what is a fair price vs. what is price gouging is going to be fairly subjective. I wonder if the community has some consensus on what is an acceptable standard of what is fair to charge for an exclusive add-on that was included as part of a larger campaign, but won't have any retail price for guidelines.
 
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Most of the exclusives are IP-knockoffs, so any retail-level intent to sell the things would make the publisher more visible to litigation.

I was around during the CCG promo card days and any can show you a stack of promos for dead games. However, Magic the Gathering not only has promos, but years of cards that have not been reprinted.

With its emphasis on the immediate cash flow a creator often needs to manufacture a product, KS epitomizes the short term, and exclusives are just part of it. The sooner you quit being OCD, the less money you'll spend on KS.
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Jack Francisco
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There will always be someone that regrets missing out on the KSer.
 
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Jeffrey Smith
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I backed Season 1 & 2 and easily recouped what I spent by selling off a few of the survivors. This isn't why I backed them, nor is it why I'm backing this one, but it certainly is a nice benefit.

I see nothing wrong with anyone who wants to speculate on a KS game by buying several copies with the intention of selling them for a profit. Like any "investment" there is risk associated with it. No one is hurt by it; more stretch goals are reached and more exclusives become available (even if at higher prices).

I regularly look through the current value of games I own to see if it may be worth selling them. Some games I will never sell (like my WotR:CE), but others that I don't play much hit Ebay. If someone is willing to pay three to four times what I actually paid for the game, I certainly feel no guilt about it. Supply and demand drives the market price. And I have plenty of games that I would lose money on if I were to sell them.

What I do find a bit unethical is when people will buy multiple copies of a limited, designers edition game with the sole intention of selling for a profit. This reduces the number of gamers who are able to purchase the game at the MSRP and then gouges those who find the game sold out minutes after going on sale.


Yeah, I'm still bitter about missing the Small World Designer's Edition.
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Jeffrey Smith
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senorcoo wrote:
There will always be someone that regrets missing out on the KSer.
Yeah, I'm still bitter about missing the Small World Designer's Edition.
 
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reaching out from the in-between spaces...
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Exo Desta wrote:


these dudes are playing an inferior game. Just because the backer wanted to have exclusives all to himself, or to sell them later for profit.



The issue is looking at it from this one perspective.

I was not on board for the 1st season of Zombicide (or season 2 for that matter). I did buy the game at retail and enjoy it. I in no way feel I am playing an inferior game just because I don't have the exclusive characters. There are more than enough characters out there for Zombicide.

When I buy the VIP zombies, I will not feel I am using an inferior variant because I don't have the 2 exclusive VIP zombie sculpts.

I also understand that a lot of these games don't get funded if people don't pay money now for a game they won't see for months to a year from now. For a game that might not be any good. But they will get an exclusive to help offset that wait. CMON even notes on the ZBP KS that the game will likely be on store shelves before backers get their copies, but they hope the added value of exclusives and freebies makes up for it. And that's why they are there.

I don't think people backing KS games and wanting exclusives in return makes them greedy. They are the ones taking a chance on a game that doesn't exist yet. They deserve something. The completionist doesn't cry foul on exclusives for KS games that suck. Only the good ones. Funny that.

Jorune
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James J

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I'm new to KS, so I've never speculated on games. But I can compare it to my main hobby, which is toys from Japan. And in many instances, a Japanese manufacturer will put out a preorder offer and then only make enough of an item to fill those preorders. That's it. Which is similar to the KS games that offer plenty of exclusives (like CMoN). In these situations the amount of product is actually increased by speculators who are buying extra copies to resell. People wanting the items later aren't being affected by supply, but by timing. They were too late to get in on the initial order. I have no problem with that.

Where speculation becomes a moral issue, and where I disagree with it, is when speculators negatively affect the initial supply. If a fixed number of items are being produced, and speculators buy them up, it artificially inflates the price. That isn't cool. Concert tickets are probably the one example everyone can relate to.

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I feel that by offering a discount (game plus free expansions), people may still waffle on getting it. They can wait for a daily sale or whatever and get it for close to the same price.

With KS exclusives, you get people off the fence. It's a get it now or never stance and it is highly effective.

People talk a big game. The one's who won't back a project because their are KS exclusives. But I can tell you after backing 40+ projects, that the one's with KS exclusives always do better in their category than one's that don't. People back knowing that if the game isn't to their liking, the KS exclusives will help them sell it and at the very least get their money back.

That other bit about shipping is towards the bottom of the main KS page, but I'll copy it here.

"Please note that while we do our best to get you your rewards in a timely manner, you may not necessarily receive your rewards before the product makes it into distribution in your own country or before it's made available in conventions and special promotion opportunities. We hope that the special price and exclusive items you will get during the Kickstarter will make up for any such possible lag. However, if this is something that is not acceptable to you, please do not back this project, and instead wait for the retail release. Thank you for your understanding."



Jorune
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CMON's also leading the way in giving less and less incentives to backers to back:
* Retailers are getting their copies before some backers are getting their stuff.
* Retailers can offer free shipping, while CMON does not.
* Shipping charges are added after the campaign, so do not contribute towards SG's.
* CMON has poor customer support, though eventually delivers product.
* CMON add-on prices are about the same as OLGS discounts.
* OLGS will have CMON games at an even greater discount during a sale.

So... that leaves exclusives. But, if you're a casual gamer who doesn't buy all the expansions for a retail game and chase down the promos, you're not going to miss the exclusives any more than casual Magic players miss the promotional Nalathi Dragon that you got as a promotional card with a Magic novel twenty years ago. If you wait for sales and buy the *three* base games and *two* expansions, you still have plenty of gameplay. If you look for Zombicide fan sites, you can download even more game material for *free*. Nobody's going to stop you from making your own fan content, either.

I also recommend painting. Whenever I see an overpriced mini, I see how many more hours of painting I don't have to spend because I don't have it!
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Exo Desta wrote:
I still maintain, however, that just the very existence of exclusive content in our hobby is a danger and a threat to our way of life, as we now know it.


I certainly agree that exclusives are a trade off of short term vs. long term. IMO, Only some game franchises can pull it off, many can't. I'm sure promos helped kill off CCG's during the CCG glut we had decades ago -- although I think some BGG'ers will think of that as a good thing! Will short-term exclusives bring down KS projects like they did CCGs? Will exclusives mean anything when every project has an exclusive? Who knows. We'll find out in a few years. Maybe we'll be playing games for the game, not for the exclusivity!
 
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Jeffrey Smith
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Sam and Max wrote:
Exo Desta wrote:
I still maintain, however, that just the very existence of exclusive content in our hobby is a danger and a threat to our way of life, as we now know it.


I certainly agree that exclusives are a trade off of short term vs. long term. IMO, Only some game franchises can pull it off, many can't. I'm sure promos helped kill off CCG's during the CCG glut we had decades ago -- although I think some BGG'ers will think of that as a good thing! Will short-term exclusives bring down KS projects like they did CCGs? Will exclusives mean anything when every project has an exclusive? Who knows. We'll find out in a few years. Maybe we'll be playing games for the game, not for the exclusivity!
I always thought that Hasbro did a good job with exclusives for Heroscape. They were simply repaints of existing figures with a new card. This gave people the option to either pay a high price for an "official" version, or buy another $15 expansion to get an extra figure, paint it, and print out the card.

Honestly, with so many sculpts there is no reason why anyone couldn't just proxy a ZC character that he or she did not own and print out the character stats. Maybe not as pretty but no effect on actual game play.

Edit: But please don't tell my potential EBay customers this!
 
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Paul Chamberland
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Sam and Max wrote:
CMON's also leading the way in giving less and less incentives to backers to back:


While the negatives you list are good, this statement isn't right.

A $150 pledge plus $15 US shipping will give us these retail products:
Zombicide: Black Plague (MSRP $100)
Zombicide: Wulfsburg (MSRP $60)
Hero Box (MSRP $25)
NPCs Box 1 (MSRP $25)
Marc Simonetti Special Guest Box (MSRP $25)
Paul Bonner Special Guest Box (MSRP $25)
Naiade Special Guest Box (MSRP $25)
Black Dice (MSRP $13)
totaling $298.

That's a 45% discount off MSRP for a line that OLGS's usually price at 20% off.

Plus the exclusives. Plus future unlocks.
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