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Rex: Final Days of an Empire» Forums » General

Subject: Statistics: victories per faction and per player count rss

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jamuki (Jueguetistorias)
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Hi!

This post belongs to our series of post for asymmetrical games, where we look into the games in the BGG database to check the statistics of victories per faction. For more posts, please check our geeklist Statistics for asymmetrical games

j-berman has asked me to get statistics for this game and keep them updated. Please notice that for 4 or more players, there can be alliances, so the total number of victories per faction is bigger than the total number of games (a game won by Sol+Jol-Nar will count as a victory for both). So, with no more preamble, here they are

Statistics for games with 3 players

Total: 22 games

Jol-Nar: 10 victories (45.46%)
Sol: 7 victories (31.82%)
Lazax: 5 victories (22.72%)

Statistics for games with 4 players

Total: 42 games

Per faction (note - more than one faction can win a game):

Sol: 24 victories (57.14%)
Letnev: 18 victories (42.86%)
Lazax: 11 victories (26.19%)
Jol-Nar: 8 victories (19.04%)

Per alliance

Letnev + Sol: 8 victories (19.04%)
Sol alone: 8 victories (19.04%)
Letnev alone: 8 victories (19.04%)
Lazax + Sol: 5 victories (11.90%)
Jol-Nar alone: 4 victories (9.52%)
Lazax alone: 3 victories (7.14%)
Jol-Nar + Sol: 3 victories (7.14%)
Letnev + Lazax: 2 victories (4.76%)
Lazax + Jol-Nar: 1 victory (2.38%)

Interesting that for Sol or Letnev appears to be a better tactic to just go alone or together. Any other alliance will actually get them worse results.

Statistics for games with 5 players

Total: 51 games

Lazax: 28 victories (54.90%)
Hacan: 27 victories (52.94%)
Jol-Nar: 22 victories (43.13%)
Letnev: 20 victories (39.21%)
Sol: 16 victories (32%)

Per alliance

Hacan alone: 6 victories
Lazax alone: 5 victories
Jol-Nar + Lazax + Letnev: 4 victories
Jol-Nar + Lazax: 4 victories
Lazax + Letnev + Sol: 4 victories
Hacan + Jol-Nar + Lazax: 3 victories
Hacan + Lazax: 3 victories
Sol alone: 2 victories
Hacan + Letnev + Sol: 2 victories
Jol-Nar alone: 2 victories
Jol-Nar + Letnev + Sol: 2 victories
Hacan + Jol-Nar: 2 victories
Hacan + Sol: 2 victories
Hacan + Jol-Nar + Letnev: 2 victories
... (rest of alliances or Letnev alone either 1 or 0 victories)

So, a bit of unbalance here. Lazax and Hacan give you more than 50% of chances of victories, where Sol gives you less than 1/3. Interesting again that there is no alliance that goes over the top.

Statistics for games with 6 players

Total: 111 games

Hacan: 58 victories (52.25%), 23 of them alone (no alliance)
xxcha: 37 victories (33.33%), 16 of them alone
Lazax: 30 victories (29.72%), 7 of them alone
Jol-Nar: 30 victories (27.02%), 4 of them alone
Sol: 25 victories (22.52%), 6 of them alone
Letnev: 23 victories (20.72%), 3 of them alone

I am not posting the results per alliance (I can provide them if someone wants them), but I would like to point the best alliances, like Hacan+Jol-Nar+Lazax or Hacan+Jol-Nar+xxcha (5 and 4 victories each) does not look much better than the worse alliances, so there is, again, no winning combo.

(Updated up until today's games - 2015-08-09)
----------------------

I will keep the statistics updated. I am pretty sure you know more about this game than I do , so the stats will make more sense to you than to me
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Sorry, what do the two percentages mean?
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K
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It's not two percentages, the commas are like decimal points in this case (31,82% = 31.82%)

Something seems strange, though. With the exception of the 3 player game, in this game you most often win as a team, with more than one faction getting credit for the win (so Xxxcha, Jol-Nar, and Letnev could all win together).

But the way it is presented here it looks like every single game is a solo victory? Win stats should add up to more than 100% if we're just counting the number of times each faction is on the winning team
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jamuki (Jueguetistorias)
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Thank to you both.

My apologies for the "," and "." issue. I always take extra care of using the English way of writing decimals (.) and not the Spansih one (,). I do not know why I missed this time.

Kweku, I must confess that for games I get statistics for, I either have played at least one game (so I know the rules) or I read the manual before hand. In this case, I was taught the game, so I though I did not need to read the manual. I was not thaugh about the alliances, though

My script to retrieve stats can get the alliances. I will get that info and update the stats.

My most humble apologies for the error.
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Oh, it's no problem! I'm just a close-minded American who doesn't know other systems well haha

I would also love to hear about the alliance stats. Thanks - this is quite interesting to know about game balance!
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jamuki wrote:


Kweku, I must confess that for games I get statistics for, I either have played at least one game (so I know the rules) or I read the manual before hand. In this case, I was taught the game, so I though I did not need to read the manual. I was not thaugh about the alliances, though

My script to retrieve stats can get the alliances. I will get that info and update the stats.

My most humble apologies for the error.


Ah, cool, and no need to apologize!

By the way, the 3 player game has no alliances (maybe that's what you learned?), so the stats there make sense!
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jamuki (Jueguetistorias)
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I've desigend v2 of my scripts and updated the statistics, now including alliances - that's why the percentages of victories can be more than 100%
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Thanks so much! I think this can serve as a bit of a foundation for arguing about game balance!

One more thing, I don't know if the numbers are significant enough or not; don't want to bother you if they're not significant, but what are the stats for 6p single player wins? I understand all the team combinations could be overwhelming haha (and of too low sample size anyways)
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jamuki (Jueguetistorias)
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Info added to the post with your request
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Garcian Smith
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Interesting, we have some credible proof that the game isn't as amazingly broken as many people seem to think.

I like how the numbers for the 3 player game confirm my theory that Jol-nar is extremely powerful in a 3 player game.
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I like how most races seem to be balanced across the different number of player counts, but doesn't it seem a bit unbalanced for Hacan in 6p? I want to balance out the 6p version but not really sure what the best approach is.
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Shawn Garbett
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I've been posting statistical analysis on various games. I had been using binomial regression. It's hard to interpret the final results without playing with exponentials and ratios. I poked around for something more direct. I found that R has pairwise proportional testing build in.

Statistics for games with 6 players

The statistics show in a 6-player game, that Hacan is clearly superior to everyone except maybe the xxcha. The rest of the races there is no statistically significant different in performance. I.e., the number of samples in this study is insufficient to resolve differences in winning rates.


> x
[,1] [,2]
Hacan 58 53
xxcha 37 74
Lazax 30 81
Jol-Nar 30 81
Sol 25 86
Letnev 23 88
> pairwise.prop.test(x)

Pairwise comparisons using Pairwise comparison of proportions

data: x

Hacan xxcha Lazax Jol-Nar Sol
xxcha 0.07335 - - - -
Lazax 0.00275 1.00000 - - -
Jol-Nar 0.00275 1.00000 1.00000 - -
Sol 0.00013 0.89869 1.00000 1.00000 -
Letnev 3.2e-05 0.49454 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000

P value adjustment method: holm
>
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Nice analysis! How can we nerf the Hacan? wow

Off the top of my head, maybe nerf the Hacan ability to deploy at half cost and make them deploy at full cost. The Hacan are relatively rich in the game, and this can make that more cost prohibitive. This is also an ability that sometimes helps them stall out the game, so I think this may have a small impact on reducing Hacan's ability to meddle into other's affairs for that turn 8 stalemate win. That or get rid of it altogether? I had also thought of reducing Hacan's starting position but I think that doesn't impact its strategy towards the turn 8 win condition (and is less fun too).

I was thinking that a bunch of Xxcha wins may be a result of predicting Hacan wins so Hacan win rates may be higher than believed. Similarly, nerfing the Hacan may help reduce the win rate of Xxcha closer to the rest of the races.

Let me know if you guys have any thoughts!
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Pedro Pereira
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takeeacy wrote:
Nice analysis! How can we nerf the Hacan? wow


Maybe the question should be: how did the other players play whenever Hacan did not win?

Statistics is all fine and good but they don't show anything on playing style, strategies and tactics. Now that would be interesting

Nevertheless, all these statistics are really interesting to read. Thanks for sharing.
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I agree that figuring out new strategies and new counters would be interesting, but given the sample of 100+ games and all the strategies attempted within those games, the results show that the Hacan have a statistically significant higher win rate. There is a <0.5% chance that the Hacan's win rate is greater than that of the Lazax and Jol-Nar due to random chance; similarly, there is a <0.05% and a <0.005% chance that Hacan's win rate is greater than that of Sol and Letnev respectively due to random chance. All other differences are greater than p of 0.05 and may not be statistically significant.

It's one thing to try different winning counter strategies to Hacan, but in an environment with no unifying meta/group think/trends, it's clear that the Hacan 8 strategy (~20% of games won by Hacan alone, let alone 52% of games are won with Hacan) is a dominant force. I just don't want my games to revolve so heavily around it.

tl;dr, statistically, there is a systematic component (not due to random chance) to Hacan's win rate relative to that of all the other races minus the Xxcha. Although the statistics don't show what that component(s) is, from experience, I think a lot has to do with Hacan 8 wins. Arguably, a lot of the Xxcha games were probably won predicting a Hacan 8 win meaning that the Hacan 8 win should be a bigger factor in the game than the statistics show. I don't want my games to revolve so heavily around the Hacan 8 strategy.
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jamuki (Jueguetistorias)
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Hi!

I'll check the games won by the xxxcha to see if I can know from the comments whether they were won by predicting Hacan 8 or not.
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