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Rise and Decline of the Third Reich» Forums » General

Subject: Best intercept option rss

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Chris Smith
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Following on from my post about the FSJR receiving Naval Bombardment support:

It is now the Summer turn. Spain fell in Spring 41 to the Panzers.
Now 2 Panzer and the FSJR stand ready to attack Gibraltar. The defence is 2 x 3-4 infantry x 4 (fortress). The Germans have 16 Air so 27v24 or 1-1.

Operation Sea lion is underway at the sametime.

Axis Fleets - 9 Factors Bremen carrying a 3-3 infantry. 17 Factors Wilhelmshaven carrying a 4-6 Armour. Target is Southhampton where the defence is a French 3-5 Armour (De Gaulle reforming).

Whats the best interception?

UK fleets: 18 Factors on Scapa, 10 Factors Gibraltar, 9 Belfast, 11 Rosyth + 4 but unfortunately my opponent had variant 2 and they are needed to supply units in Northern Ireland.

Do I split the interceptions? Or send everything against the invasion hex? Scapa range is 11-18 on invasion or 1-10 against either Bremen/Wihelshaven. Rosyth as above but 1-10 invasion hex. Gibraltar 19-24 hexes. Belfast 1-10 invasion hex.
Only UK land counterattack is 11 (2 x 3-4 and 1 x 5-4 airfleet).

HM Government seeks wise advice!! And quickly!!!

Chris
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What air power does he have for Sea Lion?

If he has none, and you failed all interceptions, he would be hitting the beach at 11:9, a 1:1. If he has no air, you've got air to fly DAS and make his attack 1:2.

I myself would send the 18 fleets at Scapa after the 9f carrying the 3-3. It will be 2:1 odds (+4 vs +2). You win a tie. So he can't win. If you win or tie he goes home. If he wins, you eliminate at least 1 factor x 2 for two 9-fs. That "victory" will cause him to have to remove at least one factor (half of your losses), and his 3-3 infantry.

All the rest: Rosyth, Ulster and Gibraltar, goes after the other fleet. If all intercept, that's 30:17, which gives you the advantage.





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chris walsh
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It is actually possible to go against the timetable and (possibly) win in Britain before the US enters. If the Germans can make an invasion work - difficult, but not totally out of the ballpark - in, say, summer, they could (using all air + the FSJR unit) hit London even across the river in Fall. Depending on the British situation this wins the game by default as there's no counterattack ... if too many forces had been deployed away to the Med.
Unlikely true - but most intercept odds we've played tend to be only 60:40 to the Royal Navy. It only takes >one< lodgement.
 
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chris walsh
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So then it all comes down to British fleet placement and whether or not they place a 9FF in Southampton to save the port there. The entire point of the strategy I suppose is that even if it fails, the Axis get the entire Mediterranean on a dinner plate. And it could well succeed.
Summer: fluke the invasion. Fall: game over.
 
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Clearly if Gibraltar is in Axis hands, the Mediterranean is secure. The extra 30 BRPs for Spain is also a boon to the Axis, and Spain is hard to invade from the Atlantic.

In this case, it doesn't sound as though the Germans have sufficient strength to jump to ditch into England this turn.

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Chris Smith
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Update!
The Scapa fleet intercepted the Bremen group at 18v9 or 2-1. Rolls were allies 2+1 (nationality) and +3 modifier for 6 and Germany 1+2 nationality for 3. Allied victory by 3 which sunk the transported infantry corps.

Rosyth (was actually 15 factors) + Belfast (9) and amazingly Gibraltar made it (10) intercepted the wilhelshaven group of 16 factors so again 2-1. Rolls were allies 3+4 modifiers for 7 and Germany 4+2 modifiers for 6.

Sea lion round one defeated but Gibraltar fell to the panzers and FSJR 27v24 roll of 3 so C/A of 1-5.

Uk now faces Italian fleet of 25 factors and German fleet of 21 factors with 51 factors.

It's fall 41 - Joseph Stalin has torn up the agreement signed with Germany only 2 years back.

Let you know the outcome.
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Two things:

(1) You've got the naval power to defeat him. If he combines his fleet into one stack, it is at the -2 Italian DRM. If not, send everybody after the Italians and send them to the bottom, and pile your air onto the defense of the beach at which he tries to land with the Germans.

OR let him use up his air to make a 2:1 and come after his beach.

(2) Can you get a double turn engineered with the Russians?
Has he denuded Italy because he has Gibraltar and thinks he's safe?

Remember that you can SR fleets and armor around the horn to Alexandria (at a cost of 2 SRs per unit). Which means that you can get a fleet and a unit into Alexandria...which means, if Italy is denuded and you have a double turn, and his fleets are on the channel, that you can land on a beach walk into an empty Rome. Long shot, but keep your eye open. If you've got an armor in Egypt and get it on a port, and on the double turn you SR in another armor and two fleets, you've got your landing, breakthrough and fall of Rome on the second turn. Bye-bye.

(3) Remember that if he's sitting on the beach too strong, that YOU can amphibiously assault his beach force with your massive naval force and a token 1-3 or even 1-4, the most you have to lose is a 1-3, and he could lose an armor.

(4) Take out Finland first.

I guess that was four.
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chris walsh
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The key, I suppose, is to conquer Gibraltar, bring all the Italian fleets around to the Atlantic, and then send invasion after invasion against the British Isles hoping to grind the Royal Navy down to a nothing or else chance a critical missed intercept somewhere.
Oh and then you gotta take London.
 
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Vicomte13 13
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The Axis has Gibraltar, but the hour is late. He'll get two bites at the British apple, but the Soviets are coming.

The British should be able to wreck the Italian fleet, and the Germans should not be able to get onto any beach because they're not strong enough. If they use ALL the air they can use, they may get a 1:1.

The USSR, by taking out Finland first, secures the north and simplifies their front. The Allies have until Winter 43 to get a decisive victory, so taking the turn or two to simplify the Russian lines by shutting down the "Northern Front" is worth it.
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chris walsh
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Any more updates?
A flip flop was it, in the East?
 
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Chris Smith
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Hi vicomte

So the Germans snuck past the Royal Navy after admiral so and so missed the interception from scapa and landed in Kent with massive air power. The FSJR landed to re in force so the Brits couldn't kick them off.
With London defence at 27 (3 3-4 trebled) the attack had enough air for 28-27 and spare air to intercept the 8 remaining British.

Thus flip flop it was allied fall then first winter with the bonus of no winter offensive East by Germany.

The axis over ran Egypt and Gibraltar in consecutive turns so 50 Brp Lost.
Soviets then did the following - East and west offensive.
East - broke through lines to set Warsaw up for following turn. Crucially wiped out German air on Breslau.
West - landed in Norway and I31. Britain built 2 armour an infantry and rep to wipeout remaining brps.

Winter - Stalin took Warsaw Oslo and wrecked Kiel canal.
Britain moved 2 amour into London to increase defence to 33.

A monumental naval clash then took place as the axis attempted to invade their Kent bridgehead and create a new one in Dorset. The Royal Navy saved the day with a tie battle v Italian above row N (11v15 so +1uk -1 italian overall) and beat Germans (23v18) by one.

then the FSJR and armour rolled into Southampton at 2-1 but suffered a counterattack exchange losing 6 air (defence was 12). The soviet unit in kiel now works improving the autobahn.

Thus with the spring flop part of the axis turn we must now survive a sea transport mission to Southampton (16 German factors and 15 Italian as 2 needed for uk supply) v 35 British.

Stalin holds Warsaw and Oslo putting Germany to -27. We are optimistic as the usa is about to declare.

Chris
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chris walsh
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Good write up, Chris - sounds exciting!
 
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Vicomte13 13
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Sounds like you are in good shape to survive.

The Americans start landing next SR phase. The Germans will probably do everything they can to get into Britain. Probably they'll use the Germans for the transport mission, and use the Italians to intercept the British.

Sounds like it will be:
Soviet: about 115 base plus 25 Eastern Europe and plus 20 Poland plus 10 Oslo = 170
Britain: 125
295 total.

Germany: 150 base + 30 Benelux +42 France + 45 Minors + 30 Spain = 297
Italy{ 75 + 35 (French and British colonies) = 110.
Total 407

He goes first (which will be a flip-flop, yes?).

Then Americans enter and you get your flip-flop.

I think if London is in his hands but you have the turn to take it back, you can do a Sea Transport mission from the USA onto British ports and get up to 6 Infantry against London, which is a lot of force. Somebody might challenge me on that, though, saying that you can't operate directly from America until England has FALLEN.

Get as much right in Germany's face as you can, as fast as you can. You're close to Berlin now in the East. If he ignores you, plow him under.

How many of his minors have activated, given that he invaded Spain and has to roll a 6 to activate them?

Once he is out of Britain, don't delay mucking around in Spain, et al. Land at Calais with everything and push East in a mighty fist. Between the West and the Soviets, you have air supremacy. Take out, If you land in Summer and grind forward at two hexes per turn, Brussels in Fall, Holland in Winter, Essen and Wilhelmshaven in Spring, Bremen in Summer. Gates of Berlin in Fall. Berlin falls Winter 43. Take out Italy in a two turn blitz with airborne and armor. Game over Summer 44. Allied decisive victory.

This gives you two turns to spare in case of a falter.

He has a lot of BRPs (assuming his minors have come in - if they have not because he hasn't rolled the six, do not divert your efforts to them: drive right at Berlin. You don't have the time to chip away at him because he's too spread out. Use your air supremacy (12 air versus his 8) to simply bulldoze forward. He can replace the units he loses, but you'll be taking two hexes a turn, probably with heavy losses. You have the BRPs to burn. Burn them and drive FORWARD, move the front two hexes along the coast every turn. Brute force him.

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Chris Smith
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Hi vicomte
You almost got the 42 YSS totals!

Actual:
USSR - 180
UK - 131 (Algeria lost last turn winter and no possibility of recapture)
USA - 270 less 35 declaration and SW

Germany - 254 (before SW)
Italy - 100

Germany had 3 brp left but lost 27 due to Poland and Norway.


So definite normal flip flop coming. The Italians have 17 fleet factors left but 2 are needed to supply the Fsjr and armour unit already in Britain. Germany has 16 factors left. I got the UK wrong we have 37 factors available and I should have said he had variant 2 which expires spring 42.

If we survive spring then the London shot is over and the liberation can begin.
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What is the air situation? How much does he have available, and what do you have?

He will unable to use the FSJR to untriple (I assume you've got armor next to it), so he's going to be coming across the river. So the most he can bring to bear, with transports, is 16 factors (four armor: 2 each on Dover and Southampton. If you've got two armor and an infantry on London, that's 11 factors x3 = 33. He will be at 1:3 odds (16:33) - no chance of victory EVEN IF you fail the interception.

Does he have 17 air he can bring to bear AFTER counterair?

Assuming you've got 10 air factors available, he would have to have the whole German air force there...and he didn't have any BRPs at the end of last turn to rebuild anything.

I doubt he has 27 air in the West to get that 1:1 EVEN IF he gets across the ditch with his fleet. Which he probably won't. It's a 1:1, but you're +1 and he's -2. If he has 27 factors in the West, you've got 15 factors of air supremacy in the East. Drive right at Berlin with the main Soviet force. Don't waste time trying to bring down his BRPs on the fringes. Don't look for the 2:1. Look for breakthrough followed by more 1:1. Burn units and replace them. Your objective is hexes towards Berlin, not BRPs, not allied capitals, not his whole army.

DRIVE into him. He cannot stop you.

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Chris Smith
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Hi

UK has 8 air
Germans/Italians have 22

Ashore in UK and with 2 hexes available are of course the Fsjr and 1 panzer (7)

Maximum air then is 14 +7 at the moment. He has the capacity to sea transport in 3psnzer corps (22) so 33 v defence of 33. If one sea transport fails its 1-2 odds and could still be successful on a 3 roll. Will he do it?

We think yes the whole enterprise revolves around this event and with odds of 16,67% it could work. The problem is he must plan for another flip flop at the sametime - not the easiet of tasks!

Let you know!
Chris
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Chris Smith
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Apologies 3 panzer is 12 factors not 22!

So best attack Fsjr (3) air (14) 4 panzer (16) across river v 11 trebled.

33v33. One killer intercept and it's very dangerous due to brp loss.

Out of 254 Germany has to spend 24 on SW. Likely East and west offensive too so there goes 54 already.

Chris
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Vicomte13 13
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He'll definitely do it. No question.

Where are your fleets? What do you have in N Ireland?
What else do you have in Britain?

I think it is necessary to figure out that American entry rule.
Normally the Americans have to SR in, but they can, at least in certain circumstances, take operations directly from the USA.

(I've always wondered why the USA doesn't HAVE TO take an offensive option from the US when they enter. After all, they've declared war, so they should have to DO something or they lose the DoW. I'm sure there's a rule exempting them from that rule, but I don't remember seeing it.)

Anyway, England is still technically "in" the game when the English are trying to take back London, so CAN the Americans Naval Transport 6 units (the SR limit) into England to assist in taking back London? WIth the four US fleets, that would be 6 infantry: 18 factors.

I am inclined to think that the Americans CANNOT operate out of the US unless England and France have fallen and there's no other way to get in, but I'm just not sure (the situation has never presented itself to me before).

His only port is Southhampton, which means that his fleets, wherever they come FROM, all end there on the naval transport mission, so you intercept them as one battle, and he is at -2 DRM for the Italians.

If he does two missions, the one that lands on his Dover Bridgehead is an amphibious assault, not naval transport, so he doesn't get to move out and attack from that beach. He already controls that hex, so there's no breakthrough and exploitation from it.

He has to bring the whole naval transport into Southhampton, and that means you've got him. Is it 1:1? You're +1 he's -2, a net swing of 3 and you win all ties.

So, basically if he rolls a 1-4, he loses no matter what you roll. If you roll a 3 or better, you win no matter what.

You really have to have crappy luck.

But then, I did once roll four consecutive sixes for intercept, resulting in the British navy failing completely to even sail for two turns of German naval invasion. Unutterably bad luck is always possible.

It would be the crowning irony for him to win the naval battle, land and roll a 5 on the 1:1.

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chris walsh
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I think if London is in his hands but you have the turn to take it back, you can do a Sea Transport mission from the USA onto British ports and get up to 6 Infantry against London, which is a lot of force. Somebody might challenge me on that, though, saying that you can't operate directly from America until England has FALLEN.

Nope, the US player cannot do this so far as I recall UNLESS Britain has fallen ... then he can use ID's to invade western Europe in the SR phase.

Good commentary, Chris - how'd it turn out??
 
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chris walsh
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Just a curious thought: those ports of Southampton/Portsmouth.
The hex can technically base 72 fleet factors, correct?
But can still only base two units.
I suppose the goal down there for the German player is to open the ports to sea transport - could this player then shoot TWO sea transport missions at the hex, one at each port?
I seem to recall someone once saying you can (this then restricts the British player's intercept chances.)
 
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He can send in two missions into each port, but it doesn't matter for intercept purposes. Intercept is by HEX, and the interception can be done at the common hex. So if two Axis fleets converge at one hex, the Allies can intercept the whole Axis fleet in that one hex, with a combined intercept.

There is no way for the Axis to avoid a single intercept if they are coming into, or through, a single hex. If there are a lot of overlapping hexes of Axis movement, the Allies can choose any of those overlapping hexes to perform their one intercept.

What the Axis could do is send over the Germans with the Transport, and then use the Italians to intercept one of the British intercept fleets, to try to defeat part of the British force and improve the odds on the transport battle. But if both fleets are doing transport missions into the same hex, the British can intercept them all in one combined battle in that hex.
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C'mon Chris, I'm dying to know: was England saved or lost?

Did the Royal Navy send the Kriegsmarine and the Regia Marina flaming to the bottom, or did they go down trying...or did they all blow their intercepts and fail to even leave port?

If the Germans got ashore, did their 1:1 get anywhere, or did they die on the Thames?
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Chris Smith
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Sorry for the delay!

England was saved! My wise opponent decided that the potential losses of around 47 BRPS (10 Air, FSJR & a Panzer Corps) and possible fleets was too much to wear. He instead mobilised great numbers of units (had 100 BRPS to spend - 11 Infantry 4 Panzer 10 Air + bits). This force was spread around and used to launch an attack recapturing Warsaw.

The usual flip flop then occurred - Spring 42 - The UK evicted the Panzer Corps in Kent after every man in the FSJR committed suicide. This was achieved by the Royal Navy bringing all the boys in Belfast across to make the odds 24-8. The RAF also seized an opportunity to then shoot up 4 factors of Italian air on Paris.

Sumer 42 - Stalin rolled east and is now poised on the Bug river to launch a surrounding assault in Northern Poland. The RAF then wiped out another 5 Italian Air south of Paris and large amounts of Dough Boys have arrived finally securing old blighty. As for pressure this is the most sustained Axis pressure I have faced for a while and although the outcome is fantastic it basically hurt my brain!

There is no Med front as its sown up tighter than a designer outfit. Our chance lays in the low German BRP total and a very narrow battlefield (but that probably aids the defence too).

Only Bulgaria activated on a 6 roll but there is enough Foreign Aid to prevent it from joining the Axis.

Hey thanks for all the suggestions especially around the original intercept question. As Wellington said it was the closest run thing you will ever see.

Chris

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Vicomte13 13
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He should have gone for it. Now Germany is doomed.
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I don't think the narrow battlefield helps the Germans here. The Axis have a grand total of 8 air wings, max, plus a 1-4 Bulgarian they can't bring West.

The Western Allies have 9 Air wings and the Russians have 3. That's a 20 air factor advantage over the Axis. To take out France, the Axis only have a 10 factor advantage.

No matter what, the Germans cannot defend the beaches. Considering British losses, the American and British Navies combined are 13 or 14 9-fleets. They have the Germans at over 5:1. There is no die roll combination that ever allows a German victory on such odds. If the Italians combine with the Germans, they drag down the DRM.

The Allies can carry up to 35 factors across for an amphibious assault, but they don't need to carry that many. If they just carry enough to make a stack of four 5-6's - just what it takes to get onto the beachhead, and have two leftover to exploit into Calais, they hit the beach with an extra 21+ naval bombardment factors. 31 versus a maximum German defense of two 4-6's, which is 24...and the Allies have 20 extra air even if the Axis put their ENTIRE air force into DAS. Hit the beach at 2:1, and exploit into Calais at 2:1 (using airborne if necessary. The Germans can't dislodge you...and if their whole air force is West, the Russians are blasting forward two hexes per turn, because the Germans can't defend themselves.

The Germans get ashore at Dunkirk and Calais, and the next turn they naval transport in four more armor. So now there's 8 armor sitting on two hexes, and massive air supremacy. And the Germans attack on hex, and take it. And exploit, and have a stack of 6 armor, on exploitation, and just take Antwerp and Brussels. Each of these stacks of allies has a strength of 10. The Germans don't have air supremacy. A stack of 10, or 13, on defense is 20 or 26 factors. Just to get a 1:1 on that, assuming no air defense, the Germans would have to attack with a stack of FIVE armor - that's three hexes. And of course if the allies have the airborne on the hex, the Germans literally CANNOT get a 1:1 without having 6 armor AND their airborne. In a 1:1 attack. A Elim or Exchange leaves the hex empty. And if the Allies retain air supremacy, the Germans cannot even get the !:2. If they Attrition you, kill the units to keep the hex open. From Calais to Berlin is 7 hexes, and your supply sources, in you cling to the coast, are Calais, Antwerp, Brussels and Amsterdam, Wilhemshaven, Bremen, the Kiel peninsula.

Two hexes per turn, straightforward, full strength. Summer: ashore. Fall: Antwerp. Winter: Amsterdam. Spring 43: Wilhelmhaven. Summer 43: Bremen. Fall 43: Berlin. Spring 44: Rome. Game over. Allied decisive victory. And that assumes that the Russians don't get to Berlin first.

He HAD TO risk it all to take out Britain. He didn't. Now it should be a direct death. His BRPs don't matter, because you have to force to advance two hexes per turn, with exploitation, up the coast, straight on Berlin, with the whole American and British infantry army coming ashore and widening the front southwards every turn. Grind him. It doesn't matter how many BRPs he has, really. You have more, and you can sustain the momentum forward by replacing your losses. Straight at Berlin - forget Paris.
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