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Stand at Mortain» Forums » Strategy

Subject: 25% chance of Allied win before Germans can even play? rss

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Attila Felsen
United States
Encinitas
California
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If you place 2 Allied units on 1802, 1 on 1804, and two on 1805, you have about a 25% chance of moving all your units 1 hex forward to place 1 unit on each of the 1900 hexes (1 through 5) before the Germans can move any unit onto the board.

I'm no probability expert; however, average Allied activation per red card seems to be about 36/13 (face cards allow a stack to move) or about 2.7 units/card. The Allies need to move 5 units to block the Germans. If 2 red cards are drawn in a row--that's 1/2 x 1/2 (not counting the joker), or about 1/4 of the time--the Germans can't enter the board.

In fact, there is a 4/53 chance (red 9 or 10) being the first draw, and the Germans are blocked immediately.

Maybe there should be a rule that does not allow the Allies to move onto the 1900 hexes at all, or that the game doesn't start until a black card is drawn, or...

What am I missing?
 
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