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BattleLore» Forums » Strategy

Subject: Average attack damage cheatsheet rss

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Jason B
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The values below are the expected value of various attack combination. This does not consider followups, like mounted's pursuit attacks. Terrain can be evaluated by 'downgrading' to a different color.

Short version:

Green archer (moved) vs any: 0.167
Green archer (unmoved) vs any: 0.333

Green crossbowman (pointblank, moved): 0.167
Green crossbowman (pointblank, unmoved): 0.333
Green crossbowman (ranged, moved): 0.333
Green crossbowman (ranged, unmoved): 0.500

Green infantry vs foot: 0.667
Blue Infantry vs foot: 1.00
Red Infantry vs foot: 1.33

Green infantry vs mounted: 0.361
Blue infantry vs mounted: 0.565
Red infantry vs mounted: 0.816

Green mounted vs any: 0.667
Blue mounted vs any: 1.00
Red mounted vs any: 1.33

Strategy notes:

Infantry against mounted is generally weak. Archers or other mounted are better-equipped to take out opponent's mounted (archers are weak but equally weak against infantry). However, when attacking mounted with infantry, red is the strongest choice. Red's extra die, compared to blue, adds +44% vs mounted instead of the expected +33% against foot units.

The attack value of crossbowman of fighting unmoved pointblank and moving to range is exactly the same! Unmoved pointblank does give a slim chance of 2 dice dmg, but chance of a complete miss is higher too.

Long version:

This version can be used to help derive answers to questions like "what are the odds that I kill unit x with one figure left in one blow?".

Green archer (moved) vs Any:
1 hit: 1/6
0 hit: 5/6

average dmg = 0.167

Green archer (unmoved) vs Any:
2 hits: 1/36
1 hit: 10/36
0 hits: 25/36

average dmg = 0.333

Green Infantry vs Foot, 2-dice (terrain) mounted vs any:

2 hits: 1/9
1 hit: 4/9
0 hit: 4/9

average dmg = 0.667

Blue Infantry vs Foot, Blue Mounted vs Any:
3 hits: 1/27
2 hits: 6/27
1 hit: 12/27
0 hit: 8/27

average dmg = 1.00

Red Infantry vs Foot, Red Mounted vs Any:
4 hits: 1/81
3 hits: 8/81
2 hits: 24/81
1 hit: 32/81
0 hits: 16/81

average dmg = 1.33

Green Infantry vs Mounted:
2 hits: 1/36
1 hit: 11/36
0 hits: 24/36

average dmg = 0.361

Blue Infantry vs Mounted:
3 hits: 1/216
2 hits: 16/216
1 hit: 87/216
0 hits: 112/216

average dmg = 0.565

Red Infantry vs Mounted:
4 hits: 1/1296
3 hits: 31/1296
2 hits: 208/1296
1 hit: 544/1296
0 hits: 512/1296

Average dmg = 0.816
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Jason B
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Some additional notes:

Most of the expected values should be pretty easy to figure out in your head, except for infantry vs mounted. Archery is 1/6 * dice. Foot v Foot or Mounted v anything is 1/3 * dice.

With infantry v mounted, one die would average 1/6 damage per attack against mounted, since rolling bonus strike is worthless. However, the trend gradually approaches 1/3 * dice as more dice are added. Infantry v mounted gains the most from +dice effects and loses the most from -dice.

This is not to say, strategically, that you should avoid attacking a mounted unit if it is in range. They start weaker (3 pieces) and are very powerful units. Just, it takes longer to eliminate a three-strength mounted piece than it would take to kill the four pieces of an infantry.

I noted that crossbowmen have the same attack value whether firing point-blank or moving back for ranged combat. Keep in mind that they will produce more retreats and generate more lore, if applicable, with 2 dice. There may be other tactical considerations. The enemy unit may be bold putting you in danger of battleback, or maybe you can fall back enough that a slower enemy unit cannot attack next turn.
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stephen
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It does occur to me that some people take their games way to seriously.
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Steve Cates
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I made a spreadsheet damage calculator to include flag damage, lore damage, and possiblity for follow on damage with mounted units.

http://www.boardgamegeek.com/fileinfo.php?fileid=23381
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james napoli
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hmm, doesnt this kind of take the fun out of it ?
 
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Steve Cates
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Making the spreadsheet is most of the fun laugh

Also, it is just the average damage not the actual... so sometimes it's cool to look back on a battle and say, "Wow, I should've only killed 1 but I took out the whole unit of 4!" or the contrary... "I need to kill this one last fig to guarrantee victory ... I attacked three times I should have killed off 6 figs on average but alas he survived!angry"
 
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