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Hopes are high for a good turn for the NLF. Eight provinces have -2 or better modifiers, and Chao Doc is a lock to go to 0 with a -8 modifier. The smaller province rolls (8 pop or less) have a gain of 2, making the population at 271. Then Chao Doc and Khanh Hoa roll in, dropping it back to 269. But Quang Nam and Vinh Long gain 1 each - back to 271.
An Giang with its -6 comes in and loses 2 points! Only 4 provinces left, if they can hold to one pop gain, the US does not get another morale bonus. But Kien Hoa bursts the bubble, gaining the 2 right back and the final 3 show no movements.
SVN Controlled population: 271
The US uses 20 air to bomb the trail, gaining a hit and losing 2 planes.
Five commitment brings 50 supplies down the trail as a result.
Only the Marines are rolled for again, and the leader is replaced for the 2nd straight season. The -1 turns into a -2. Loyalty roll comes up an 11, with the +3 makes him fully loyal and completely worthless. Paired with the +2 CoS, the Marines will only be effective on a roll of 0. I don't think that will ever happen. The Marines are done and will hang out in Saigon for the rest of the war.
Coup roll of 9. I Corps general is pro coup and will force a roll next season. Air force is wavering
Loyalty roll: 9, adjusted to 8. B leaders gain a point. The gap widens. It appears Qui (our name for the mystery man) is a Buddhist.
SVN Morale: +4 to 173
US Morale: -12 from offensive, -2 from commitment, +2 from population - to 403
NVN Morale: +32 to 430
The North's morale is higher than the US! There must be some hidden significance there somewhere.
The US, after some wrangling, decide on an increase in commitment of 25 points. 21 air(7), 24 RP(8) and 70 SVN supplies(10) round it out.
The ARVN brings in 80 RPs for 20 draft and 40 supplies, and regenerate the augmented Armored Cav and place it in the empty port that the VC were looking at longingly.
The NVA disbands all units on the map and uses the points and some to regenerate 2 divisions, all augmented except for 1 unit - which will be placed on TOP of the stack so I don't lose it.
Seven more commitment brings RPs back to 21. That leaves 4 points for VC draft, which buys 8 battalions.
From this point forward, this little in the way of new activity must be placed very carefully, to force the US to either commit units to S&D or to allow some to live and affect the population. The VC decide to target Binh Dinh, which has a SVN controlled population of 9 out of 15. But the units are not all placed right there. Some are as far away as northern Khanh Hoa, but will attempt to make their way north by the end of turn 2.
Here is a color coded map of the population.
The dark blue are fully or 1 point from full SVN control. Not targets. Dark red are full NLF control, which are launching points, but also not targets. This will be the VC's job now and into the future. Build up forces in the vulnerable areas, and make the US pick their poison. We shall see how well this works. This turn will inevitably see US action, as the Delta still has significant activity, and now, one less effective division.
Effectiveness roll of 2: only the Marines and 25th are ineffective.
No holds or patrols, as VC will want to run for their lives. The US opens with a massive security operation out of Chau Phu. Free fire in Chao Doc (it's completely lost anyways) and air support to maximize the allowable support of 15 ground factors First attack, SE of the town. A regiment. Blown all to hell - a massive roll results in 13 casualties, but only 6 factors exist. They move back through the town and head to Tinh Bien, where another regiment sits, but within range of supporting HQ from Cambodia. Only 4 hits this time, and the regiment retreats to the edge of the trail, but off road, so no questions about an incursion.
VC operations start with a complete bug out. Those in An Giang scatter away from adjacent US troops in all sorts of directions. Some make it to Cambodia, others down to Kien Giang, but almost all towards the border. Farther south, the group in Bac Lieu head to the depths of An Xuyen. The goal is to draw units away from the center of IV and out of position for an incursion which is tentatively planned for the summer.
The plan succeeds over the season. The southern group is wiped out after a C&S traps them and units are airlifted in for the kills. Two battalions, the regiment and the HQ escape to the trail, but the rest are eliminated as well. There were 37 battalion equivalents in the field, so the VC are careful to not expose more than 29 of those.
In Binh Dinh, that target was a flop, but the US was already running operations, so the likelihood of success were slim. They expanded their RP poo,l however. Also, three battalions did escape to the frontier of southern Kontum, where they packed in a triangle together for defense.
I Corps saw the US and ARVN reorganize and saw the US stack their regimental elements together, maybe to recombine into full regimental deployments.
With the failure of the Marines, more troops must be sent to the Delta, and the Paratroopers will be reassigned in the summer. We must also identify at least one more division for that duty, but they will need at least a +4 leader to counter the -1 Corps leader.
SVN Morale: 173
Draft Level: 158
ARVN RP: 114
US Morale: 403
US RP: 27
NVN Morale: 430
VC Population: 89
VC Draft: 563
Again, the US expects a good season, Chao Doc is a lost cause, and is the only province with any modifiers over 1. But, the population is very polarized and there is not much movement in people's beliefs. Quang Ngai finally jumps large, and now there is only 1 point from full control of I Corps.
Up 2 to 53/54
Binh Dinh actually drops even without modifiers, but Phu Yen tops out and Tuyen Duc gains a tic, from 1+ to 2-.
Up 1 to 31/57
Hau Nghai goes full control, Binh Duong loses 1
No gain: 33/48
IV Corps sees only single tic movements or none at all. But one results in a drop (Vinh Binh)
Down 1 to 86/131
SVN Controlled population: up 2 to 273
The US sends 11 bombers to the trail, deliver a hit and lose a plane. It may not be worth the effort any more.
6 commitment delivers 60 supplies.
A non-standard play is made, to spice things up and hopefully try to even the field a bit for the NLF player. Replacement rolls were made for 3 of the 4 'A' leaders that are in the gray area. Story follows...
Qui has become more disturbed by the whispers in the halls from the Army faction leaders. They are angered at the loss of so many of their men after the last offensive, and Qui's unwillingness to change course.
Already, the highly respected Marine division leader was imprisoned, and replaced with a Catholic stooge. But the Army quickly acted and tossed him, replacing him with another of their own, who will not let their Marines die for Qui any more. He feigns loyalty to Qui, but will lead them into no battles.
Qui has heard rumors of this, and decides it is time to act. He orders the removal of three leaders, including the Two Star General of I Corps. This attempt fails, and throws the general into a pro-coup status with no loyalty for Qui. But Qui proceeds.
He orders the removal of the 22nd and 23rd Divisonal Commanders, bringing in another loyal “Army” general to lead the 23rd (A+3, loyalty 11) and the previously disgraced and jailed Marine Corp leader (A+4) for the 22nd. (Yeah, so much for leveling the playing field)
Why bring him back? Qui needs a good leader to take control in the north to hold back any more NVA incursions, and gains his loyalty (10) only by threatening his good friend with treason (and subsequent execution) if he does not comply... the leader of the Paratroopers. The One Star General capitulates for the sake of his friend, and retains control of the 22nd divison.
So yes, I Corps goes pro-coup, all subordinate units are ineffective, and the 22nd and 23rd get better leaders.
Coup roll: 7. No one but the above is anything but loyal.
Loyalty roll: 8. B leaders take a step up AGAIN. They apparently liked the activity this season. Seven B leaders are beyond reproach (13 loyalty) and the other 2 are at 11 and 10.
SVN Morale: +5 new commitment, +4 other regular stuff: 182
US Morale: -3 commitment, -2 new commitment, +2 population: 400
NVN Morale: +5 new US commitment, +24 US commitment, +12 NVN morale: 471
NLF: Bedraggled, but mostly intact elements of a lost regiment report in, deep inside the safety of Cambodia. Uncle Ho is informed that they did indeed survive, contrary to initial reports. The unit will be recycled and retooled as Ho meets the surviving Colonel and congratulates him for rescuing his regiment. He is promoted to General of the 3rd Division and redeployed, ready again for battle.
This would be the last official action from Ho Chi Minh, as his health worsened by the day.
An in-game adjustment from the end of the offensive creates an extra 5 commitment points which will be added to the NVN available total.
6 commitment went to supplies, 2 go to draft, and 2 for 6 NVA RPs. 2 points upgrade the one infantry regiment. 34 saved.
Again, the VC look for weak spots, and the one they opened around Chuong Thien looks perfect. At 4- population, a 4 tic shift will drop 2 population and keep the lid on things. 8 units (4 bats and 4 polys) are distributed in the general area, and we will see what will come out of it.
The regiment, HQ and 2 battalions on the trail in the same box split up to confuse the US as to where they went. All 4 units remain south of the Iron Triangle, but in 3 separate boxes.
The US recombines 1 and 3 regiments of the 9th Infantry into the 1st deployment.
Effectiveness roll: 4. Already I Corps are wholly ineffective, and the general II and IV units, along with the 25th in III and Marines in Saigon also ineffective. (I am now dubbing these 2 divisions as the "Saigon Pair" since they will both be ineffective 83% of the time.)
This puts only the ARVN artillery, 5th division and Koreans as the non-US troops in the Delta to handle the VC incursion.
No holds or patrols. NLF immediately cedes ops. The Paratroopers are not going to be able to all get on roads to change to IV this turn, so they hop on choppers and head to disperse the Kontum Trio. One Ranger joins them, but they are just out of range of one unit. There is an opening, and the battalion escapes the artillery cover, but one paratrooper is still in contact.
Crappy roll, 1/0 result. VC retreats, but the Para can catch him. Another attack, same result, but an extra pursuit. VC makes it to the Cambodian border but not across, another attack brings a 1/1. The battalion escapes easily this time to the jungles of Cambodia. Not a good start for the ARVN.
Still trying to keep the US out for the moment, Three mixed Korean elements activate to intercept a VC unit in the delta. 2 Rangers this time, but a 5 roll added to the 3 for the swamp and the 1 for ARVN lets it get just far enough away to avoid combat, and moves next to another unit who had reacted to their initial movement. Zero for two and a quarter of the non US Delta units are now wasted. Looks like the US must make that decision now.
The decision is made - no ops from US troops. There are only 2 areas of operations from VC units: southern Phu Bon and the central delta. ARVN troops close in on the Phu Bon cluster, but the VC scatter, losing only one battalion, with 2 escaping to Cambodia, and 3 others, at the end of the season, running to Phu Yen cultivated areas. The US surveys the province, and with full population, decide to not overextend resources to chase them down. They may lose a pop point, but it will be easily recoverable.
In the delta, the Black Panther division relocates from Quang Ngai/Binh Dinh to the south to help deal with the situation. All 8 units survived the first turn, but with them, the 2 divisions of Koreans, the ARVN 5th, and the entirety of the US Air Force, seven units are destroyed, with the only one surviving having retreated to the safety of Chao Doc - where a modifier will serve no purpose (already 0-).
Summer end stats:
SVN Morale: 182
Draft Level: 158
ARVN RP: 110
US Morale: 400
US RP: 27
NVN Morale: 471
VC Population: 87
VC Draft: 567
- Last edited Mon Oct 19, 2015 7:23 pm (Total Number of Edits: 1)
- Posted Mon Oct 19, 2015 4:07 pm