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Subject: BGG vs Theory rss

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King in Green
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Hello everyone,

In this thread we will be playing a game vs. Theory, a strong player who maintains the Twilight Strategy website (Take a look! http://twilightstrategy.com). Each round we will propose & vote on plans, and then see how Theory responds.



http://acts.warhorsesim.com/dynamic/journal.asp?id=62245

Excel Tracking File BGG vs. Theory (View Only)

http://1drv.ms/1iZVIpF
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King in Green
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Well, here's our hand....

1 / Nasser* (USSR)
Add two USSR Influence in Egypt. US loses half (rounded up) of its Influence in Egypt.
13 2 / Arab-Israeli War (USSR)
Pan-Arab Coalition invades Israel. Roll a die, and subtract 1 for US Control of Israel and every US Controlled country adjacent to Israel. USSR Victory on modified die roll 4-6 USSR adds 2 to Military Ops Track. Effects of Victory: USSR gains 2 VP and replaces all US Influence in Israel with USSR Influence.
26 1 / CIA Created* (US)
USSR reveals hand this turn. Then the US may Conduct Operations as if they played a 1 Op card.
18 1 / Captured Nazi Scientist* (Both)
Advance player's Space Race marker one box.
9 2 / Vietnam Revolts* (USSR)
Add 2 USSR Influence in Vietnam. For the remainder of the turn, the Soviet player may add 1 Operations point to any card that uses all points in Southeast Asia.
103 2 / Defectors (US)
Play in Headline Phase to cancel USSR Headline event, including Scoring Card. Canceled card returns to Discard Pile. If Defectors played by USSR during Soviet action round, US gains 1 VP (unless played on the Space Race).
12 1 / Romanian Abdication* (USSR)
Eliminate all US Influence in Romania. USSR gains sufficient Influence in Romania for Control.
23 4 / Marshall Plan* (US)
Allows play of #21 NATO. Add one US Influence marker in each of seven non-USSR Controlled Western European countries.
6 4 / The China Card
+1 Operations value when all points are used in Asia. Pass to opponent after play. +1 VP for the player holding this card at the end of Turn 10.
 
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King in Green
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For the second game in a row I draw Marshall & CIA... 4 1s in our start hand too. As we have Defectors I think that the Vietnam Revolts headline may warrant strong consideration here so we can get some influence on the board.... but voting on set up should come first....
 
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King in Green
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Plan 1

East Germany 4

Poland 4

Yugoslavia 1

Thumb if you're in agreement
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Mikhail Dektyarev
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Plan 2

East Germany 4
Poland 5

We will likely play Marshall this turn (playing 10 ops on first turn doesn't look attractive), so we are not going to contest mediterrian non-BGs. Italy will get to 4, so we will not be able to take it next turn with Socialist Goverments too. So influence in Yugoslavia will give us nothing.

Agree with Vietnam Revolts headline. And for general strategy - probably take as much of SE Asia this turn as we can.
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King in Green
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Theory doesn't know that though... and we at least want access to Italy etc. for the future. If we don't put influence in Yugoslavia he'll be free to leave Italy to 2 and to drop influence somewhere annoying e.g. Turkey
 
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Mikhail Dektyarev
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We will eventually get access to Italy via Comecon/Warsaw/De Gaulle (what is the proability he will play one of those this turn?), we don't need it this turn, and likely will not need it next.

If he goes with 2 to Italy, we can coup Italy with Marshall with 1/2 chance to succeed.
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I've become a fan of the "5 in Poland" opening. We can give up any attempt at Europe Domination. If we have an opening to coup Italy, take France, or take West Germany, we can remove US Domination.

I vote 4 in West Germany, 5 in Poland.


I'm also in favor of that Vietnam Revolts Headline. We can follow it up by placing 2 Thailand/1 Laos, with a threat of a counter-coup in Thailand.
 
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Mikhail Dektyarev
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Coup/counter-coup in Thailand will mean using China card (leading to disaster if he will get both decol/destal next turn), giving up on Asia domination (as he will definitely take Pakistan/India) and weak position in ME. Not a good scenario for us...
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Sergey Kosarev
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Hi!
What's the game variant? With Optional cards? Does USA have any bonus IP at start?
Thanks.
 
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King in Green
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+0 for US, with optionals.
 
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Kyle Wolfson
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I'm in for going hard for SE Asia and salvaging the terrible ops value of the hand. Coup-coutercoup in Thailand could be done with a boosted Marshall instead of China if he kills the roll, or if he coups in to 1inf A-I war is good enough on anything but a 1.

UN should be used with Marshall.
 
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Mikhail Dektyarev
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kylewolfson wrote:
UN should be used with Marshall.


How? Do you suggest we keep Marshall for next turn? (meaning we effectively play 9-10 ops, one of which will be CIA)
 
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Sean McCormick
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Would also opt to headline Vietnam.
 
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King in Green
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I'm thumbing 4/5 too for now...I suppose that if we go 4/4/1 we at least have the option of 2 to Turkey/ Greece to salvage Europe a little but it's a toss up! Let's hope he has 3 scorings...

I think that we may be forced to play China this turn, probably while holding Nazi for next turn's headline (maybe) and one other 1 op. We need India or South Korea if possible.
 
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Plan 1

Headline Vietnam Revolts

I think we can do this vote too....
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Kyle Wolfson
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Oops, thought we had UN from the last game, never mind on Marshall.
 
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I think we should be willing to use the China Card in a counter-coup of Thailand. If we kick him out of Thailand, we can basically double the value of some of our 1-ops by using them in Southeast Asia. If he doesn't walk into Pakistan and India ASAP, then we can take India with Marshall Plan. If he does, then we can use Marshall Plan for an Iran coup to take a decisive Middle East advantage.
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King in Green
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I'll wait for awhile before doing set-up (and headline if he doesn't do a weird set-up) so as many people join the thread from the start as possible.

Sean McCulloch has volunteered to help with posting moves, so he has equal authority with regard to deadlines & such. I tended to hurry things along in the last game but will try to ensure everyone gets a say this time.

Edit: Argh, got my Seans crossed....
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King in Green
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Also Theory will be keeping a game log, so we can expect to see some interesting analysis postgame I hope!
 
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A couple of general thoughts/questions. Just wanted to throw them out for discussion. Not sure how relevant/important they are:

-If we decide to go 5 to Poland instead of 1 to Yugoslavia could Theory open dangerously in Europe with a non-standard setup? Probably depends more on what he has in his hand then our opening but just wanted to throw the question out there since 4 E Germany and 5 Poland may send signals we are low on ops and won't compete in Europe this turn.

-Do we want to make it seem like we have Asia scoring instead of a hand of low 1 ops cards? Not sure if there would be much difference in our moves. Maybe playing our 2-ops cards early so it would seem like we had a stronger hand than we do? Would we prefer to have him fight us in Asia rather than have him secure Europe while we secure Asia?

-I think it would be nice to hold Marshall Plan over to next turn if possible though I don't know if we will have the chance. Having a held 4 ops card always feels nicer going into the next turn then holding a 1 op . If we need to respond to one of his moves with MP this turn though we should use it.
 
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Theory & Riku on Vietnam Revolts:

Quote:
This card starts off very strong and quickly becomes worse and worse as the game goes on. On Turn 1, before Thailand has been claimed, this is a superb headline and an easy way to grab the crucial battleground. By Turn 3, or worse, the Mid War, your attention is probably elsewhere, since the US will probably already have taken Thailand. If the US hasn’t overcontrolled Thailand because you don’t have access to it, this can be a nice way to sneak into Thailand with the China Card.

The bonus to Operations is quite nice, though there aren’t really that many ways to spend all those Operations in Southeast Asia, since you’ll rarely venture south of Thailand. It does mean that if you plan on playing the card during the turn, you should headline it for maximum benefit. It’s a good headline candidate because it’s strong enough to be meaningful, but it’s not the end of the world if it runs into Defectors.

Riku Riekkinen’s thoughts:

Vietnam Revolts is a very good headline, because it allows the USSR to instantly dominate Asia (in case the US tries to dump Asia Scoring on the headline).

There are 4 camps regarding headlining Vietnam Revolts on Turn 1:

1) Don’t do that. Wait until DEFCON is 3, so that US can’t coup you out of there. This might cost you Thailand, depending on whether the US is already in Malaysia when you play Vietnam Revolts. You might still be able to flip Thailand with your +1 Ops and China Card, however.

2) Headline it and coup Iran AR1. Now US can start a coup-counter coup routine in Vietnam, but it’s couping at a disadvantage due to Vietnam Revolts’ +1. So the US is really looking to empty out Vietnam with a coup, which it has a 1/6 chance of doing so on each roll.

3) Headline it and play into Thailand & Laos/Cambodia. Now, if the US coups Thailand, you can coup it back at +1. Even if the US empties Thailand, preventing you from counter-couping, you still have backup countries in Southeast Asia and can retake Thailand before the US.

Now, it’s generally agreed that couping Iran is the best move for USSR on Turn 1 AR1. However, if you’re playing with influence bids for the US, Iran is sometimes overcontrolled so heavily that couping Iran is no longer worthwhile. This Vietnam Revolts headline play is a strong alternative, and probably much better than Socialist Governments & Italy.

4) Headline it and play Asia scoring on AR1, scoring a quick and dirty Domination. Probably the worst of these options, but a possibility if you have a truly, truly terrible hand (e.g., nothing but 1 Ops after a Red Purge/Scare headline).
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Sergey Kosarev
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Plan 2
Headline Nazi Scientist (2vp)
Then coup Iran with Defectors
If we succeed and he counter-coup Iran we'll play Vietnam Revolts safely at Defcon 3. On the other hand if we roll 2 or 1 we will be in trouble.
Anyway 2 VP is always 2 VP.

Your thoughts?
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Sergey Kosarev
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And as we don't have neither Decol nor De-stal we'd better don't use China on Turn 1.
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King in Green
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Regarding deadlines I would like decisions to be made at a time when Theory can easily respond, so morning or evening EST. Our set-up vote is close enough that there's no hurry yet though.

In the case of a draw between plans I usually choose particular voters whose votes will act as a tiebreaker. SeanM (edit: sorry Seanmac, meant to nominate my co-poster....) will be the first tiebreaker, once his vote is decisive I will choose someone new. If the tiebreaker didn't vote for either of the plans I'll wait for a time in case of a deciding vote and then make the choice myself if none is forthcoming.
 
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