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Subject: The 3rd Campaign (Spring 1941) rss

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Ian Yeo
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With the commencement of the new year, the Axis called for Spain. With a +4 modifier to the die roll. However a miserable "1" was rolled. The Spaniards rebuffs the German advances. (at this juncture the Axis was very demoralised). Both diplomatic overtures to Ireland and Spain went completely south with a roll of 1 each. This completely de-railed plans to squeeze England, as Submarine warfare was limited.

Side note: The axis player at this juncture things that a traditional play works better. Operation Sealion works but it is too dependent on the luck of the dice. Even with strong modifiers in its favour.

Counterair of British Air continues with the Royal Airforce fighting above average. The Axis also took out the German NAS in Malta and Manchester.

The Axis tried to sea supply to Great Yarmouth and Portsmouth, and the British came out to irritate, before withdrawing thereafter. In the ensuing airstrikes, the Germans attacked with 8 AAS and sunk 2 CVLs at a lost of 3 German AAS. German proceeds to take the coast and plymouth. The Germans also produces a second partisan in Iraq, and NRs Italian armor to North Africa.

Spring 41' Allies turn.

The allies called Sweden, and rolled a 5. It seems that diplomatic overtures from both sides were lacklustre. The UK counterairs the German air left in the English isles destroying 3 German AAF at a lost of 2 British AAF.

In Asia, both sides did attrition, while the Japanese prepares for Pearl Harbour.

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Gary Goh
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Tension levels (end of Spring 1941):
- USAT = 35
- RGT = 24
- USJT = 14

Allied commentary (Europe):

Operation Sealion and Germany's aerial siege of Britain have taken a toll on the latter's economy and defences:
- By the end of the Allied Spring 1941 turn, only half of the RAF is built and placed for the defence of the British Isles;
- Seven transport losses from Atlantic SW combat are yet to be replaced;
- The Germans still control the double port hex at Portsmouth/Southampton and the port of Great Yarmouth, which ground units can be sea transported into for further incursions;
- The built Luftwaffe air force (excluding interceptors) is at 86.67% of its full strength, and are in place to potentially inflict more damage to the RAF and Britain's economy.
- The Royal Navy has had two of its CVLs sunk (for a noble cause, no doubt), and is next to useless in the presence of 20+ German attack AAS;

That said, Britain may have seen the worst of the Axis siege. This can be inferred by its surrender level, while taking into account the fact that the war has progressed beyond the dark days of 1940 and into 1941:
- +3 British DP;
- -2 for unbuilt British/Commonwealth units (<20 factors off-board, comprising mostly of army air factors);
- +1 for Allied/Axis naval factors (a safe estimate, since little naval combat has occurred thus far);
- +1 for USAT being between 30 and 39 (inclusive);
- +9 for Western Allied ground/army air factors (as 99% of the built British force pool is stationed in the mainland);

Total = +12

Other promising signs for the British include the following:
- The German BRP base has not grown significantly beyond its starting level, as German air losses from above-average British and French air combat rolls to-date have placed significant pressure on German construction decisions and spend;
- The Germans have apparently abandoned the notion of taking Spain and Gibraltar (by land, at least) and their associated pro-Axis Atlantic SW combat modifiers;
- The Axis now hold a meagre Atlantic SW combat modifier of +1, due to the following:
-- Naval Nationality DRM and Air Range parity (the Allies announced a Naval Nationality DRM breakthrough in Spring 1941);
-- Germany's two torpedo research results are offset by two Western Allied ASW research results that were obtained in 1940;
-- Germany's +2 modifier from its control of ports in France will be slightly offset by a third ASW research result which will be announced in Summer 1941;
-- Several American CVEs which are under construction should come online in Winter 1941 to offset the remaining pro-Axis Atlantic SW combat modifier;
-- Lastly, the Western Allies' six ASW factors (including two newly produced factors) in the Atlantic SW box are a good match for Germany's four U-boats;

Taking a wider view of the situation, German boots on British soil since Spring 1940 have caused tension levels to rise rapidly in Europe. USAT is increasing far more quickly than its historical counterpart, and this has allowed the U.S. to 1) mobilize a turn earlier on average, and 2) render an increased amount of lend-lease aid to Britain. The U.S. will continue to mobilize in Europe every turn of 1941 and onwards -- a development that Britain welcomes with wide open arms.

While the Axis and Russia have not been active in the east following their joint conquest of Poland, RGT has increased rapidly nonetheless due to the German invasion of Britain. Russia has also deliberately remained passive at the cost of reduced economic growth (e.g. Bessarabia and the Finnish border hexes) as it prepares itself for an inevitable outbreak of war with the German barbarians. The withdrawal of a Japanese 2o3 armor unit from the Manchurian Garrison has also enabled Russia to SR a 3o5 armor unit from its Siberian Garrison to Europe -- this, together with the production of a new 5o6 armor unit and three AAF, will strengthen Russia's defences in the event that the Germans decide to attack Russia in 1941.

Allied commentary (Pacific):

Intentional or not, Japan's low-tension strategy has contributed to a very slow USJT increase over the first 1.5 years of the war (akin to the pattern as indicated by the "Ultimate Surprise" strategy that is described in the 2008 Ultra write-up on the AWAW website). While the Pearl Harbour Surprise Table has been changed since then, the fact remains that Japan has the luxury of deciding between Fall and Winter 1941 (and possibly Spring 1942) to declare its day of infamy and yet still stand a high chance of finding a U.S. carrier by surprise in this game.

As Japan has not expanded its shipbuilding capabilities beyond its initial levels, it has not managed to lay down additional ships or carriers due to its emphasis on churning destroyers out. As of Spring 1941, the BB5s Musashi and Yamato and two destroyers make up the remaining ships in the Tokyo docks, compared to the U.S. Pacific shipyard which contains a new BB5 and CVB (with more heavy ships in its European shipyard).

In China, Communist China's aggression has enabled it to take back two Chinese hexes from Japan, of which one is adjacent to the key economic objective of Peking. Japan has managed to stop the Communist Chinese advance, and is now inflicting heavy attrition losses on both Nationalist and Communist China with its expanded infantry force pool.
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