Roger,Exactly this situation arose in a game I played yesterday, when a single 1-pip French tank motored into Portugal supported by heavy bombers from Paris. The Portuguese fort killed the tank, the heavy bombers then killed the fort. (The Soviet influence chit denoting Portugal being a Soviet associate was removed as soon as the French moved in and the Portuguese fort was set up).
You have raised a good point.
The rules 15.421 say Armed Neutrals are defeated when the Capital is "captured." Unfortunately "captured" is not a defined keyword in T&T.
The posted errata FAQ made this situation worse by citing sole occupation of the Capital by Enemy units as triggering Defeat. You followed this interpretation correctly in your game, but I now see why that wording is not really what was wanted.
The real intention was: "captured" = "is Enemy controlled" and it should have been stated as such.
Under this interpretation, control of the Capital in your example never changed. Control is evaluated at the start of a phase and remains unchanged throughout that phase (until the start of the next phase, when re-evaluated).
So yes, the ANS units would have to ReBase (still Enemy Territory at that point, and no Ground support).
Control is then re-evaluated at the start of next (Supply) phase: Capital is still Neutral controlled by default.
So the Armed Neutral is still not defeated (but open to occupation and does not generate a new Fortress if re-entered).
The underlying principle is that once a Neutral is Violated it becomes an Armed Neutral and this is not reversible (hence if it is entered again it is not a VoN and it does not re-generate another Fortress).
PS Brian and I are considering how to best rationalize the timing issues with Neutral Defeat/Control Evaluation/Unit Removal. Please use the above interpretation for now until we finalize this.
Situation: the Axis had previously activated Spain as a satellite, but the resulting Axis / Spanish army had moved to (and captured) Gibraltar, leaving both Spain and Portugal open - a second French tank had moved to Madrid to capture it too.
We interpreted it as per Craig's response, i.e. the following season the French tank in Madrid motored into a defenceless Lisbon to capture it.
While the French tank captured Portugal, the heavy bombers paid a visit to Gibraltar and destroyed the Axis / Spanish army. I think we played that wrong, as we assumed the unoccupied colony of Gibraltar returned to Western hands. Upon reading the rules later, the elimination of the Axis / Spanish army in Gibraltar in itself wasn't enough to remove the Axis control marker, the West would have to move in a unit to remove the Axis control marker.
Quite a few edge cases in this sequence of events!
It was quite a wild ride - the West were able to hold off the Germans from taking France (thanks in large part to the brave pilots and fortunate dice rolling of the RAF). The West was then diverted by having to deal with an Axis / Brazilian submarine(!) unit that was playing havoc with the trade routes to the Eastern part of the map (including the British satellite of Persia), while the Soviet slowly spread influence in the Balkans (despite the pleas of the West to get stuck in against the Axis).
The French then captured Rome (again aided by the heavy bombers that now included USAAF units), while the Soviets turned on the West (the Axis were looking out of it by now, turtling up in Germany) by conquering Persia and Delhi.
The end game was a race to see whether the Soviets could take a second capital/sub-capital before the West took the Ruhr. There were a number of massive air battles over the Ruhr in which the Luftwaffe made up for its poor showing over France earlier in the war, while the Soviets massed near Berlin.
The move on Berlin was a bluff, as the real target was lightly-defended Rome (held by two one-pip French units). The final season of the game opened with a last, massive battle in the Ruhr,. with the Germans just hanging on (three one-pip units remained) but the game was won by the Soviets who used armour and heavy bombers to brush aside the French defence of Rome.
Think I may cross-post this as a session report....