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Subject: The 3rd Campaign (Summer 41') rss

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Ian Yeo
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Summer 41’ Axis Turn

With the British having built so few air in Spring, the Germans realized that an opportunity presented itself. German staged 15 Air factors (+ Airbase) to the dual port city hex of Portsmouth/Southhumpton, and counterairs the remaining 10 British Air factors, resulting is 7 British AAF destroyed vis-à-vis 3 German AAF Destroyed. Good die rolls.

The Axis further sea transported a 4-6 armour and an Italian 2-6 armour to Portsmouth. The British surprisingly didn’t intercept. With the armour in the British Isles, and an Air Supply run to the isolated beach hex west of Portsmouth, the Axis attacks London at 2:1 odds. 1 Airborne drop, 17 AAF and 6 Armour factors against a defence of 12. A good die roll, results in the Axis taking London without any losses.

SW combat was meager at best, with the british losing 2 transports, and 1 damaged. The Axis also produced 1 more Italian 2-6 armor and 1 German 1factor infantry. 2 Subs were also produced.

All is relatively quiet in the Pacific Theatre.

Summer 41’ Allies Turn.

Pacific Theatre – Attrition inflicting 1 jap counter loss. The Communists also builds a partisan.

In Europe, Stalin declares war on Romania, with a final attack at 2:1 odds against Bucharast. An Ex result was obtained, with the Russians losing a 5-6 armour and 3 AAF. Heavy losses on the Russians part. But this occupation would pressure the Germans to turn East eventually, as oil supplies are at risk, especially when RGT reaches 45.

In the supply run in the Med to Malta, 2 Italian subs attack the British Task force, and sinks Repulse. However supply to Malta is re-established.

The British conducts an attrition attack in the Isles, inflicting 1C/1H. The German opt to take the airborne counter loss at the dual-port hex, thereby denying the British any chance of occupying that hex.

Tensions at End Summer 41’
USAT : 43
USJT : 18
RGT: 26.

Seems like the US will enter the European war in Autumn 41’. This will put some pressure on the Japanese as well.

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Gary Goh
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Budding wargamer
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Actual (effective) tension levels (end of Summer 1941):

- USAT = 42 (40)
- RGT = 26
- USJT = 18 (16)

Allied commentary (Europe):

Britain’s war situation has deteriorated with London’s conquest, and it faces the impending conquest of its remaining key economic objective cities of Birmingham and Manchester. With London no longer an unlimited supply source for Western Allied units in Britain, the Western Allies are obliged to set aside one transport each turn to provide sea supply to the British Isles from the Atlantic U.S. box. This stands a high risk of successful interception by the European Axis, and which will threaten a British surrender if the Western Allied units in Britain are cut off from supply:

British resistance level, as at end Summer 1941:
- +1 British DP (+3 default, +1 for having at least 100 BRPs as calculated in the YSS, -2 for Axis control of London, and -1 for Axis presence in Britain);
- 0 for the number of other major powers at war with the European Axis;
- -2 for unbuilt British/Commonwealth units (approximately 20 factors off-board, comprising mostly of British army air factors);
- +1 for Allied/Axis naval factors;
- +2 for USAT being 40 or more, and the U.S. is not at war with Germany;
- +5 for Western Allied ground/army air factors in the western front (ignoring units in the Atlantic U.S. box);
- +1 for Russian units in Rumania;

Total = +8 (Britain offers to surrender at the end of the Allied turn where this reaches zero or lower)

An Axis conquest of Birmingham and Manchester in Fall 1941 will reduce the British resistance level by two points, so these calculations show that Britain is hanging by a thread since the U.S. is expected to enter the war only in Winter 1941 (which is a conservative view). Ensuring that most of the British force pool is built and placed in the British Isles will therefore deal with two key modifiers that depend on 1) the number of unbuilt British/Commonwealth units, and 2) the number of Western Allied ground/army air factors based in the western front respectively.

If additional European Axis aggressions/conquests and the USAT tension die roll in Fall 1941 permit though, USAT may hit 50 in the same turn and therefore allow the U.S. to declare war on the European Axis in advance of an outbreak of war in the Pacific theater. This will raise the British resistance level by a minimum of one point:
- +2 from the inclusion of the U.S.’ European naval fleet to the Allied/Axis naval factor calculations;
- +1 for the number of major powers being at war;
- -2 from the USAT-related modifier, which is now no longer relevant once the U.S. is at war.

The U.S. can also deploy units to Britain and contribute further to the modifier which is concerned with the number of Western Allied ground/army air factors in the western front.

Prior to the Summer 1941 turn, the Allies had discussed two options for Russia which had positioned itself to attack Rumania in the previous turn:

1) Stay quiet, and allow RGT to run up to 50 in Spring 1942;

As Russia will stop supplying oil to the European Axis when RGT hits 45, the Axis will have to align/conquer Rumania in Winter 1941 or Spring 1942 to secure the Rumanian oil supply before a Russian DOW. This means that the Axis may have to move their forces eastwards which will alleviate the German air siege of Britain, though the Axis will also have an oil supply source to draw from. The most likely outcome of this path will be a standard Russo-German war with no Axis oil issues, but without the element of Axis surprise and Russian IC level increases (since Russia is the side that declares war).

2) Declare war on Rumania prior to the outbreak of a Russo-German war before the Axis can take the minor country by diplomatic alignment or conquest:

The immediate and obvious downside of this option is the substantial reduction in RGT of close to six points due to Russia’s aggression. While this opens up a window of opportunity for the Axis to conquer more of Britain’s real estate by delaying Russia’s entry into the war, it will also provide the Axis with the benefit of an additional turn to take North Africa if they wish. It will also give the Axis more time to build out their force pool in preparation for the impending war with Russia. Overall, this is the riskier option of the two.

Despite the dangerous (and very real) risks to Britain however, the Allies eventually embraced Option 2 for the following reasons:

- A Russian conquest of Rumania may compel the Axis to declare war on the former while it still has the element of surprise (i.e. so long as RGT is below 40 at the time of declaration) if it wishes to secure the Rumanian oil source. However, the Axis DOW on Russia will trigger the BRP increase of the latter’s ICs which would be beneficial for Russia over the long haul though Russia will need to defend Rumania and the Motherland staunchly. Since all of the Axis air units (which are critical for success of an opening surprise attack on Russia) are presently deployed in the west, Russia will be warned in advance since these units will need a full turn to relocate eastwards;
- A viable alternative is for the Axis to produce an oil plant each year to compensate for the absence of Rumanian oil supply of three counters. While this avoids the need for a German DOW on Russia with its related benefits (and risks), this requires an expenditure of Axis RPs which could be better used elsewhere. In addition, oil plants are eligible strategic bombing targets for the Allies and Russia, so the Axis will be forced to station air units within operational range of the oil plants to defend them if they do not wish to see a disruption in their oil supply. Also, Germany (the wealthier major power in the European Axis alliance faction) will have fewer than 400 BRPs during the 1942 YSS, so it will only be able to place a maximum of three RPs in the production category.
- This path is more fun (at least from the Western Allied player’s perspective);

How the war will pan out for Britain before the U.S. entry will be reflected in the following session report.

Allied commentary (Pacific):

All is quiet in the Pacific since the last update apart from skirmishes in China, though the wider peace will not remain for long.
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