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Pandemic Legacy: Season 1» Forums » General

Subject: Fastest top 20 ever? (EDIT) ...I meant top 1 rss

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Philip Newman
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Re: Fastest top 20 ever?
FWIW, a rough estimate of the ranking algorithm suggests Pandemic Legacy would need around 3000 votes to reach #1 with an average rating of 9. The number rises quickly if the average rating goes down.
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Adam Strong-Morse
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Re: Fastest top 20 ever?
Well, it hit 20 this morning. The climb has noticeably slowed, though--even a few days ago it was jumping 7 or 10 slots per day. It went up one place from yesterday. Two weeks to top 10?
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Re: Fastest top 20 ever?
It's feasible. Could get there at around 2000 ratings even with a little bit of decay in the average.
 
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Re: Fastest top 20 ever?
ahmorse wrote:
Well, it hit 20 this morning. The climb has noticeably slowed, though--even a few days ago it was jumping 7 or 10 slots per day. It went up one place from yesterday. Two weeks to top 10?
The jump between Keyflower (7.744) and Caylus (7.779) was so big.

Yes in about 10-14 days it can be top 10.
 
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Re: Fastest top 20 ever?
This thread just makes me want to lower my 9 to an 8. No way is this game Top 20.
 
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Re: Fastest top 20 ever?
clydeiii wrote:
This thread just makes me want to lower my 9 to an 8. No way is this game Top 20.
I feel the same about several other games in the Top 20...
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Clive Jones

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Re: Fastest top 20 ever?
mfaulk80 wrote:
clydeiii wrote:
This thread just makes me want to lower my 9 to an 8. No way is this game Top 20.
I feel the same about several other games in the Top 20...
Quite!

I've tended to find the 50-200 range in the BGG rankings contains a lot more things that I enjoy than the highest echelons. With the prospect of a game I really like in the top ten, I'm quite looking forward to being one of the cool kids for a change.

(Argharghargh! Still haven't actually got the group together to play, it though. I'm only assuming I'll really like it. Even now, after all the ratings, might it be too good to be true? /-8 )
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Re: Fastest top 20 ever?
clivej wrote:
I've tended to find the 50-200 range in the BGG rankings contains a lot more things that I enjoy than the highest echelons.
I'm with you. A lot of the top 20 are games are just boring, either mechanically, or thematically. If I see Uwe Rosenberg's name, I know I'm going to be looking at my watch wondering when the game is going to end.
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Re: Fastest top 20 ever?
Well the average rating is dropping, so maybe the climb will slow down a peg. A little off topic, has anyone actually read the rating of Rob Daviau on this game? Hilarious!
 
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Re: Fastest top 20 ever?
farsidehobbes wrote:
If I see Uwe Rosenberg's name, I know I'm going to be looking at my watch wondering when the game is going to end.
Really? With some of those top-rated games, I'll be looking at my watch wondering when the game is going to begin.

The other week, my table enjoyed two entire games before the table next door had finished the rules explanation for Through The Ages. They claimed that was why they weren't done playing until 2am...
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Re: Fastest top 20 ever?
gamequack wrote:
Well the average rating is dropping, so maybe the climb will slow down a peg. A little off topic, has anyone actually read the rating of Rob Daviau on this game? Hilarious!
Or Matt Leacock's?
 
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Re: Fastest top 20 ever?
Up a couple more to 17 now.
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Re: Fastest top 20 ever?
clydeiii wrote:
This thread just makes me want to lower my 9 to an 8. No way is this game Top 20.
uhh.. yeah, I get mad when my highly rated games get popular
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Re: Fastest top 20 ever?
monteslu wrote:
clydeiii wrote:
This thread just makes me want to lower my 9 to an 8. No way is this game Top 20.
uhh.. yeah, I get mad when my highly rated games get popular
Not mad, but by comparison to my other 9s, Pandemic doesn't hold up. Legacy is amazing but only lasts for 15 or so games. Pandemic is at most a 7...maybe a 6 even. Legacy isn't a 10, but close. So...8?
 
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Re: Fastest top 20 ever?
clydeiii wrote:
This thread just makes me want to lower my 9 to an 8. No way is this game Top 20.

This is a strange reason the rating of ones impression of a game...

As it is now in the Top 20 would that mean to you that you have to lower your rating even further?
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Re: Fastest top 20 ever?
BitJam wrote:
The rise of Android: Netrunner is well documented here: Tracking the Rankings. It was fast, less than 2 months from the top 100 to the top 20, but I think PL is faster.
I'm the one who compiled the numbers linked here. If you're interested in a similar comparison between Android: Netrunner, Terra Mystica, and Caverna -- three recent fast-risers (excluding Star Wars: Imperial Assault) -- check out this specific post within that thread: Re: Tracking the ranking

I've spent quite a long time on BGG and have been very interested in the rankings through all that time. In my experience, this sort of rise is unprecedented in recent years. It is true that games like Agricola, Space Hulk, and Dominion vaulted into the top 10 within the span of just a couple of months ... and, of course, Agricola went all the way to #1. But the month Agricola cracked the top 10 it had less than 1000 votes, and though it's no longer possible to go into the database (or, at least, I no longer know how to do it) and confirm this, I'm fairly sure that it's average rating was only around 8.5, not 9.

Of the games that have entered the top 10 in the last few years -- Eclipse, Mage Knight, Android: Netrunner, Terra Mystica, Caverna, and The Castles of Burgundy -- a couple of those were slow burners. Three of them are tracked in the post I have linked above, and Eclipse is compared in the first page of that same thread. In short, though, Android: Netrunner has been the fastest-rising, best-rated game in at least the last 5 years ... and it has nothing on Pandemic Legacy to this point.

PL currently has 1632 ratings right around 6 weeks after release. At the same point in time, ANR had less than 1000 ratings and Caverna had only about 700. But in addition to that, PL has an average rating of 9.00, whereas at the same amount of ratings, ANR had at 8.57 (though it was also ranked #15) and Caverna was only top 25 with a rating of 8.50. So Pandemic Legacy is not only acquiring ratings at an extremely fast rate, but it's also maintaining a far higher rating than, really, any other game.

These facts make it hard to estimate exactly how high it might go. Not only is it hard to judge the pace and timing of its rating decline, but it's also hard to judge the pace of additional ratings.

All that having been said, obviously it's a lock for top 10, almost certainly for top 5, very likely #2 ... and then we'll have to see.
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Re: Fastest top 20 ever?
What everyone isn't talking into consideration is twilight struggle's digital implementation is imminent.

I predict that will ultimately be it's demise from number one because more people will play it and think there is no way this is the best game of all time. Thus more lower ratings will be created which will ultimately bring it down.

So if this can get to number 2, eventually it will likely be number 1.
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Re: Fastest top 20 ever?
MrPretty wrote:
What everyone isn't talking into consideration is twilight struggle's digital implementation is imminent.

I predict that will ultimately be it's demise from number one because more people will play it and think there is no way this is the best game of all time. Thus more lower ratings will be created which will ultimately bring it down.

So if this can get to number 2, eventually it will likely be number 1.
This is a really interesting point - I've said many times that I believe I won't like Twilight Struggle, and am therefore highly unlikely to rate it because I'm not going to bother to play it.

However, if I can pick up an app version for a few bucks, just to see what all the hubbub is about, I might give it a go. And I might rate it more highly than I would the cardboard version, because app versions of games tend to play a lot more quickly than their physical counterparts. There are a lot of interesting confounding factors at work here, and I find them pretty fascinating.
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Re: Fastest top 20 ever?
Current projected number of votes to reach each position in the rankings (assuming same average rating and other algorithm characteristics, and that the other games don't move):

Current: 1680 (8.99 average, 7.893 bgg)
#13 - 1698
#12 - 1731
#11 - 1764
#10 - 1785
#9 - 1840
#8 - 1845
#7 - 1858
#6 - 2030
#5 - 2066
#4 - 2099
#3 - 2139
#2 - 2389
#1 - 2698
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Re: Fastest top 20 ever?
mith wrote:
Current projected number of votes to reach each position in the rankings (assuming same average rating and other algorithm characteristics, and that the other games don't move):

Current: 1680 (8.99 average, 7.893 bgg)
#13 - 1698
#12 - 1731
#11 - 1764
#10 - 1785
#9 - 1840
#8 - 1845
#7 - 1858
#6 - 2030
#5 - 2066
#4 - 2099
#3 - 2139
#2 - 2389
#1 - 2698
Pretty solid projection. Currently 1737 reviews and up to #12.
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Re: Fastest top 20 ever?
New projection!

Current: 1999 (8.97 average, 7.992 bgg)
#6 - 2109
#5 - 2146
#4 - 2185
#3 - 2224
#2 - 2492
#1 - 2817

PL has gained 319 votes in the last week, and lost .02 average. The same changes over the next week would put it virtually even with Caverna for 3rd.
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Re: Fastest top 20 ever?
A thing I've just realised, which will help both Twilight Struggle and Pandemic Legacy in the ratings, arguably unfairly...

Suppose a lot of people (rightly) feel inhibited about rating a game they've not played.

Also, suppose that people feel they need to have played the entire season to have "played" PL.

Also, suppose people aren't willing to spend hours and hours on something they don't enjoy.

This means, the longer a game is, the greater the proportion of people who complete a play of the game will be people who liked it. That helps both Twilight Struggle (3h) and PL (15h).
 
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Re: Fastest top 20 ever?
clivej wrote:
Suppose a lot of people (rightly) feel inhibited about rating a game they've not played.

Also, suppose that people feel they need to have played the entire season to have "played" PL.
Somehow I don't think these suppositions are correct.

Just look at how many BGG reviews in general are written after a single play.
 
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Re: Fastest top 20 ever?
38 1 ratings, 5 are marked as owned.
14 2 ratings, 2 owned.
11 3 ratings, 0 owned.
13 4 ratings, 2 owned.
13 5 ratings, 2 owned.
31 6 ratings, 8 owned.
7 and up are mostly marked as owned.

Out of 120 ratings below 7, only 19 are marked as owned. An argument could really easily be made against the conclusion I'm drawing, but I think it's still valid. There is a political game being played here. How very meta.

There is this gem of a comment, though:
Quote:
only will play it at gunpoint.
I wonder how that fellow's game nights usually go, if that's a qualifier for play...
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Re: Fastest top 20 ever?
Mixo wrote:
clydeiii wrote:
This thread just makes me want to lower my 9 to an 8. No way is this game Top 20.

This is a strange reason the rating of ones impression of a game...

As it is now in the Top 20 would that mean to you that you have to lower your rating even further?
Absolutely. Everything is relative. The game simply isn't as good as the other ones in the Top 20.

And don't get me wrong. I love Pandemic: Legacy and don't even really like Caverna or Terra Mystica, but they're clearly better games than Pandemic, by far. I don't like them as much, but they're absolutely better.

See the difference?
 
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