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Subject: Fastest top 20 ever? (EDIT) ...I meant top 1 rss

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Clyde W
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Don't forget, people who bought it solely because it hit #1 on BGG.
 
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clydeiii wrote:
Don't forget, people who bought it solely because it hit #1 on BGG.
I buy the #1 game on BGG once a month. I sure was getting tired of all these TS boxes piling up.
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Clyde W
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If a game is Top 10 BGG, any self-respecting gamer should at least try it once. 4000 users can't be wrong, right?

Unless the game is a coop of course.
 
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Clive Jones

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I agree that limited availability will have an impact, but with what latency?

Most people will take weeks or months to finish, and might hold off rating the game until they're done. I'd expect any downward blip in the number of ratings to be quite diffuse and to have barely started yet.
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clivej wrote:
I agree that limited availability will have an impact, but with what latency?

Most people will take weeks or months to finish, and might hold off rating the game until they're done. I'd expect any downward blip in the number of ratings to be quite diffuse and to have barely started yet.
I'm only through June.

June was a bad month...
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Dean L
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clivej wrote:
I agree that limited availability will have an impact, but with what latency?

Most people will take weeks or months to finish, and might hold off rating the game until they're done. I'd expect any downward blip in the number of ratings to be quite diffuse and to have barely started yet.
Given how quickly it got ratings, I'm not sure people were holding off
clydeiii wrote:


Unless the game is a coop of course.
Board Game: Chicken Coop Dominoes
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Clive Jones

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Sure, there were people who booked vacation, ate coffee granules by the spoonful straight from the jar, propped their eyelids open with matchsticks and played the game non-stop until they were finished.

Those people didn't wait until the new year to buy their copies. :-p
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clivej wrote:
Sure, there were people who booked vacation, ate coffee granules by the spoonful straight from the jar, propped their eyelids open with matchsticks and played the game non-stop until they were finished.

Those people didn't wait until the new year to buy their copies. :-p
Guilty.
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January 15:

Votes: 5191 (+32)
Average: 8.655 (±0)
BGG: 8.238 (+4)
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January 16:

Votes: 5223 (+32)
Average: 8.653 (-2)
BGG: 8.237 (-1)
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January 17:

Votes: 5275 (+52)
Average: 8.653 (±0)
BGG: 8.241 (+4)
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January 18:

Votes: 5339 (+64)
Average: 8.653 (±0)
BGG: 8.244 (+3)

On December 13, the average was 8.83; this is the day that Pandemic Legacy first overtook Terra Mystica for #2.
By December 21, the average had plunged down to 8.73 ... where it remained until January 1.

On January 1, the average was 8.73; this is the day that Pandemic Legacy overtook Twilight Struggle for #1.
By January 7, the average had plunged down to 8.65 ... where it has remained until (at least) January 18.

In fact, the more-precise average that we now have access to has been constant for three days now. It is also exactly the same spot it was six and nine days ago.
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Projection to 8.25: 92 votes
Projection to 8.30: 974 votes
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January 19:

Votes: 5396 (+57)
Average: 8.662 (+9)
BGG: 8.255 (+11)

I'd first like to note the increase in votes. After four straight days with added ratings in the 30s, the last three days have been in the 50s and 60s. One possible explanation for this is the weekend effect: These last three days have been for ratings newly added on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Monday can be included in the concept of "weekend" for our purposes since some users are definitely more active on weekdays, while at work; alternately, Monday was a minor US holiday, which could also bring it into "weekend" status. If this theory is correct, we could anticipate seeing a downturn in added ratings come tomorrow; if not, then something else is at work, and I have no idea what that thing might be.

The bigger news is the major upward jump in rating. After 11 consecutive days with a rating of 8.65, the average ticks up noticeably, making its biggest leap upward since January 1. I don't think there is any larger explanation that needs to be given for this, as this likely just falls into the normal distribution of votes. That the rating had plateaued in its decline actually indicated to me that this sort of bump upward was possible; the deluge of "1" votes that Pandemic Legacy has endured has dried up, which in turn enables it to claw back some of its lost ground. This isn't to say that it might not see a similarly-sharp downturn come tomorrow, of course.

The 11-point leap in BGG rating has enabled PL to pass Twilight Struggle's all-time high mark, which was set back in June 2013 at around 8.247. We have to go back even further to find a time when a game had a higher geek rating. In fact, the last time any game had a rating of 8.25 or 8.26 -- to give you an idea of how far back we have to go, the three-decimal-point rating had not been instituted yet -- was in September 2009, when Agricola's geek rating was 8.27; by October 1, 2009, it had fallen to 8.25.

Unfortunately, as I've stated before, I don't have access to its average rating from that time. However, there is some other data that I do have. For instance, it had been #1 for a little over a year, having attained that position in mid-August of 2008. Its vote total on September 1 was 10418, a gain of 403 over August 1, and 62% of the total for Puerto Rico, the game that was at #2 with a geek rating of 8.24; Power Grid was a distant third with a rating of 8.15, or about where Terra Mystica is today.

However, Agricola's peak rating came with its accession to the top spot. Its geek rating climbed from 8.20 on August 1, 2008, to 8.34 on September 1, 2008, where it hovered until December 1, 2008, when it slid back to 8.33. Whether it peaked above that mark of 8.34 at any point mid-month, I can't answer. But it held that rating on November 1 with 4890 votes (though I think it's safe to say that it's average rating was likely not as high as Pandemic Legacy's is). So we'll use that number as the next target for Pandemic to reach for. It's a long way off, as far from where Pandemic is now as it is back to Terra Mystica -- or, to put it another way, the amount of distance that PL has covered in the last five weeks.
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Projection to 8.30: 770
Projection to 8.34: 1635

It's as "close" to 8.30 as it has ever been, but not the closest it's been to 8.34.

Nov. 30: 1727
Dec. 1: 1441
Dec. 3: 1435 (this is the closest I have in my spreadsheet, but I am missing a few days in early December)
Dec. 13: 1482 (passed TM)
Dec. 19: 2229 (hit 8.73 for the first time)
Dec. 31: 1888 (still 8.73)
Jan. 1: 1598 (passed TS)
Jan. 7: 2283 (hit 8.65 for the first time)
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January 20:

Votes: 5434 (+38)
Average: 8.659 (-3)
BGG: 8.255 (±0)
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January 21:

Votes: 5484 (+50)
Average: 8.654 (-5)
BGG: 8.252 (-3)

It's given back most of its gain in average from the last couple of days -- three days ago it's average was 1 point lower -- but not nearly as much of its geek rating (it's geek rating was 8 points lower three days ago).
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January 22:

Votes: 5518 (+34)
Average: 8.653 (-1)
BGG: 8.254 (+2)
 
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It might be interesting for you to start following the new Through the Ages (or maybe you already do?).
Its ascension is much slower due to the number of ratings (I believe it's been much harder to get ahold of in North America, and I believe it's not as easy to get to the table as PL) but right now its average is 9.19 (was 9.20 earlier this week) with 802 ratings. It hasn't started gaining any hate-voters yet and its rating curve is quite remarkable (54.6% of voters giving it a 10).
 
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Philip Newman
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I don't have the 3 decimal averages, but based on what I do have:

1/22/16: 802 votes, 9.19 avg, 7.371 bgg

Projected votes to:
8.000 - 837
TtA - 923
PL - 1493
 
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mith wrote:
I don't have the 3 decimal averages, but based on what I do have:

1/22/16: 802 votes, 9.19 avg, 7.371 bgg

Projected votes to:
8.000 - 837
TtA - 923
PL - 1493
Very interesting. But if ever a game was going to benefit heavily from the second edition selection bias, it would be this one.

I may start a whole new thread somewhere to keep tracking both of them.
 
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I have copied over my data for Pandemic Legacy into a new thread: Tracking the ranking (Pandemic Legacy, Through the Ages 2, Gloomhaven). I will also be commencing a tracking of Through the Ages there.
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Aweberman wrote:
mith wrote:
I don't have the 3 decimal averages, but based on what I do have:

1/22/16: 802 votes, 9.19 avg, 7.371 bgg

Projected votes to:
8.000 - 837
TtA - 923
PL - 1493
Very interesting. But if ever a game was going to benefit heavily from the second edition selection bias, it would be this one.

I may start a whole new thread somewhere to keep tracking both of them.
I would expect it to earn a place higher than old TTA with it having much better art and being a slightly more forgiving game (not as easy to get hosed early on, and Napoleon isn't broken anymore), but not what this average is signifying. So far it's probably old-timers who have eagerly sought out copies or started playing it on boardgaming-online.com over the last weeks who have rated it.

I'd guess that once it enters the top 5 it will get votes from people who haven't played it (but played the old one) on the basis of "they can't fix what I disliked about it" and who will feel justified in rating it. With its very low vote total it would also be even more sensitive to shill votes than PL was, if it enters the top with this high a rating.
 
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clydeiii wrote:
Unless the game is a coop [...].
There's a contradiction in your sentence.
 
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