LOL!!! yes I know...I wasn't talking about the mission in particular anymore. Sorry that wasn't clear. I mean hitting is hard in the game in general. I feel it is a lot more likely to not shoot/miss (throw blanks attacks and/or opponent throwing evades defense dice) than actually hitting.as anyone calculated the odds?Many people have. Many, many people.
A single red die has 4 hit results (1 crit and 3 hits; we'll just count crits as hits to keep things simple), 2 eyes, and 2 blanks.
A single green die has 3 evade results, 2 eyes, and 3 blanks.
A given unfocused attack die therefore has a 50% chance to provide a damaging result. A given unfocused defence die has a 5/8 chance to let through a damaging result. One die versus one die, unmodified, therefore has a 5/16 chance to deal a damage, i.e. a little over 1/4.
Which isn't very high. Which is why this is a game about maximising your dice, minimising their dice, modifying your dice, and preventing them from modifying theirs.
Because your chances get a LOT better when you have a range 1 shot with a target lock and a focus, and your opponent hasn't got any active defensive actions, and you're tossing 4 dice to their 2 (albeit I don't think that exact situation is possible in the core set).
In the case of the X-Wing with Luke and R2D2, he's tough to take down if you just joust with him (i.e. fly straight at him, and you both k-turn when you've got past each other) but if you can maneuver such that your more maneuvrable TIEs are behind him, you then give him the choice between doing green maneuvers to regain sheilds and probably keeping you behind him shooting at range 1 up his tailpipe, or doing white maneuvers or k-turning to try and get some shots on you, at which point he's not regenning shields any more, and may not be taking an action either.
It's also worth noting that you get twice as many chances to shoot than he does, on average, so he will much more often be shooting against more defence dice with more defensive actions to modify them, whereas many more of your shots will be defended against without tokens, because he'll tend to spend them either shooting at you, or defending against your first of two or more shots.
So yeah, if you just look at the unmodified dice, and assume you're rolling about the same amount of attack and defend, the chance to damage opponents is pretty low. Which is why the game's about finding ways to avoid doing that.
It may also be worth noting that basic TIEs are pretty bad ships unless you have a tonne of them. 2 attack dice is not a lot. But that's why they're cheap in points, so you have the option of fielding twice or three times as many ships as your opponent.