Professor of Pain
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Back in the Summer of '15 most pundits predicted that GOP presidential front runner Donald Trump would soon flame out. We are only two months away from the Iowa caucuses and Trump is actually rising in the polls. To wit, Trump surges as Carson tanks, Democratic race static:

(Note, this is a composite of multiple polls)

So Ben Carson is flaming out (unsurprisingly) and Trump is the big winner followed by Ted Cruz. One month ago, Trump was at 28.4%, Carson 21%, and Cruz was at 8.8%. Now, Trump is at 35.1% (+6.7), Carson 13.9% (-7.1), and Cruz 11.4% (+2.6).

I know this is too good to come to pass, but could Trump end up the GOP nominee? The GOP establishment is starting to freak out over the possibility. They want to take him down but, apparently are Wary of Donald Trump.
Quote:
For months, much of the Republican Party’s establishment has been uneasy about the rise of Donald J. Trump, concerned that he was overwhelming the presidential primary contest and encouraging other candidates to mimic his incendiary speech. Now, though, irritation is giving way to panic as it becomes increasingly plausible that Mr. Trump could be the party’s standard-bearer and imperil the careers of other Republicans.

Many leading Republican officials, strategists and donors now say they fear that Mr. Trump’s nomination would lead to an electoral wipeout, a sweeping defeat that could undo some of the gains Republicans have made in recent congressional, state and local elections. But in a party that lacks a true leader or anything in the way of consensus — and with the combative Mr. Trump certain to scorch anyone who takes him on — a fierce dispute has arisen about what can be done to stop his candidacy and whether anyone should even try.
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Mac Mcleod
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I think it's great because I can't see any way he can win the election.
The republicans are once again running an extremist unelectable candidate.

I hope when the current gerrymandering finally fails that we shut the door on this particular incarnation of the republican party for a generation.
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J
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don't discount Rubio, he's statistically tied with Cruz.

It will be interesting to see where the other candidate supporters end up once they drop out.

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J.D. Hall
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The underlying message here with Trump -- and Bernie Sanders for the Democrats -- is that American voters are sick of politics as usual. They want to see things get done, like budgets and laws, not just a lot of jawboning by rich politicians.

Unfortunately, the voters are putting too much emphasis on the presidential race. Despite what the fringe lunatics on the right and the left have said, presidents like Obama and Bush really can't get too much accomplished under our form of government. It's Congress, and while polls show Congress is in an apparent tie with Hitler, all polls show that while people hate Congress, by and large they love their Congress man or woman, and will re-elect said idiot, er, politician. And therein lies the crux of the crisis.
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Mike Stiles
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remorseless1 wrote:
The underlying message here with Trump -- and Bernie Sanders for the Democrats -- is that American voters are sick of politics as usual. They want to see things get done, like budgets and laws, not just a lot of jawboning by rich politicians.

Unfortunately, the voters are putting too much emphasis on the presidential race. Despite what the fringe lunatics on the right and the left have said, presidents like Obama and Bush really can't get too much accomplished under our form of government. It's Congress, and while polls show Congress is in an apparent tie with Hitler, all polls show that while people hate Congress, by and large they love their Congress man or woman, and will re-elect said idiot, er, politician. And therein lies the crux of the crisis.


The massive irony is this:

Lifetime political and media professionals:

Pundit: "Hey you guys should be sick of politics as usual and politicians!"

voters; "Yeah, you're right... I hate those guys!"

Pundit: "But not me, I'm not one of those bastards, I'm an maverick outsider!"
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Boaty McBoatface
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windsagio wrote:
remorseless1 wrote:
The underlying message here with Trump -- and Bernie Sanders for the Democrats -- is that American voters are sick of politics as usual. They want to see things get done, like budgets and laws, not just a lot of jawboning by rich politicians.

Unfortunately, the voters are putting too much emphasis on the presidential race. Despite what the fringe lunatics on the right and the left have said, presidents like Obama and Bush really can't get too much accomplished under our form of government. It's Congress, and while polls show Congress is in an apparent tie with Hitler, all polls show that while people hate Congress, by and large they love their Congress man or woman, and will re-elect said idiot, er, politician. And therein lies the crux of the crisis.


The massive irony is this:

Lifetime political and media professionals:

Pundit: "Hey you guys should be sick of politics as usual and politicians!"

voters; "Yeah, you're right... I hate those guys!"

Pundit: "But not me, I'm not one of those bastards, I'm an maverick outsider!"
I love the massive irony of showing how much you hate jawboning rich politicians by backing a jawboning uber rich celebrity businessman.
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Grand Admiral Thrawn
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I feel that it's NOT so great for progressives if he is the nominee. There's still a slight chance he could win, but mostly he will dredge up a lot of violent hate that will affect people as long as he stays on the bully pulpit.

It's gone from a joke to fascistic fantasies in a few months.soblue
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J
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Maybe he'll work like a vaccine.
 
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shumyum
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Two months is plenty of time for Trump to flame out. The Iowa Republican caucus will then elect someone with no chance of winning the nomination because he's too religious (probably Cruz).

I live in Iowa and the pattern has been happening for a while now. Four years ago at this time, polls of the state had pizza magnate Herman Cain way out in front of the rest of the Republican presidential primary field. Eventual winner Rick Santorum stood at a mere 4 percent. Santorum, of course, had no chance of winning the nomination.

Only the Iowa democrats have retained any semblance of relevance.

Edit: the difference this year is that before Cain went down quietly. Trump, as he sinks, will unleash all sorts of crazy insults on Iowa and I, for one, plan to be quite entertained by it.
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Professor of Pain
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Right now the polling suggests Cruz is on track to win Iowa, but Trump may well take New Hampsire.
 
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Mike Stiles
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shumyum wrote:
Two months is plenty of time for Trump to flame out. The Iowa Republican caucus will then elect someone with no chance of winning the nomination because he's too religious (probably Cruz).

I live in Iowa and the pattern has been happening for a while now. Four years ago at this time, polls of the state had pizza magnate Herman Cain way out in front of the rest of the Republican presidential primary field. Eventual winner Rick Santorum stood at a mere 4 percent. Santorum, of course, had no chance of winning the nomination.

Only the Iowa democrats have retained any semblance of relevance.

Edit: the difference this year is that before Cain went down quietly. Trump, as he sinks, will unleash all sorts of crazy insults on Iowa and I, for one, plan to be quite entertained by it.


'cept there's no reason to believe he'll flame out.

He's pretty much all on the surface, and it's hard to picture him going to over-the-top that he'll flame out.

Carson is the more normal scenario, where they gain prominence, get a ton of media exposure, and then implode. This is explicitly not happening with Trump, and there's really nothing in sight to say it even could
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James Webb Space Telescope in 2018!
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Somebody re-post that graph here from a recent RSP thread, that showed how only a small minority of people are even paying attention now to politics - not until the Iowa primary.

Also, telling a pollster something on the phone is one thing. Maybe you want to send a message. But actually voting for a nut with no experience is another thing.
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Mike Stiles
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you say that, and it's easy to say, but where're the possible challengers?

Also, and maybe more importantly, this is an unusually media-saturated primary season (largely because of Trumps presence).
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Seth Brown
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maxo-texas wrote:
I think it's great because I can't see any way he can win the election.
The republicans are once again running an extremist unelectable candidate.

Once Again? Romney may not be a particularly compassionate person, but he's certainly far from extremist, more moderate than most candidates.

Admittedly, moderates are thin on the ground this year. Kasich's probably the most moderate, although he also seems to have no chance in hell. Rubio's the only vaguely moderate GOP candidate with double-digit poll numbers. Then again, Sanders is clearly no moderate either, and Hillary seems to face no other serious in-party opposition.
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Mac Mcleod
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Osirus wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:
I think it's great because I can't see any way he can win the election.
The republicans are once again running an extremist unelectable candidate.

Once Again? Romney may not be a particularly compassionate person, but he's certainly far from extremist, more moderate than most candidates.

Admittedly, moderates are thin on the ground this year. Kasich's probably the most moderate, although he also seems to have no chance in hell. Rubio's the only vaguely moderate GOP candidate with double-digit poll numbers. Then again, Sanders is clearly no moderate either, and Hillary seems to face no other serious in-party opposition.


I still think Hillary is unelectable... but if the republicans are going to run someone even more unelectable then it's crazy but possible.

I guess I read Romney differently. he was more conservative than the average 1980 republican congress. he only seemed moderate by comparison to the extremists we have now.
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Boaty McBoatface
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einsteinidahosu wrote:
I feel that it's NOT so great for progressives if he is the nominee. There's still a slight chance he could win, but mostly he will dredge up a lot of violent hate that will affect people as long as he stays on the bully pulpit.

It's gone from a joke to fascistic fantasies in a few months.:soblue:
Given the rhetoric around the oath keepers and resisting the tyrant, I am really afraid as to what may happen if he loses.
 
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Matt Brown
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If Trump gets elected, American intelligence should be the new Microsoft Works. There's not a big enough "We're sorry" that this country could give to the rest of the world.
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