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Subject: What's actually going on with Asmodee's Diabolical Machinations rss

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toby
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In the comments section of Monday's BGG News item regarding ANA's new policies I outlined what I think is going on, but I want to flesh it out here, since I now have good 3rd party reason to believe I've pretty much dialed it in. They do truly seem to have figured out a way to cash-in on B&M support that Mayfair/CMON did not.

1. The announcement is not about altruism or nostalgia, it's about making more money, which is the basis for most for-profit firms activities.

2. Crucially, ANA really, truly believes that Brick & Mortar game stores' existence generates significant marginal revenue for ANA above and beyond that which would exist in an OLGS-only world. This revenue MUST be significant, since ANA companies already provide B&M stores with support in the form of promos, game night packs, displays, etc., that are of no utility to an OLGS model. That is, it already costs game companies like ANA money to provide traditional forms of support to B&M stores they don't have to provide to OLGSs, so we know they believe B&M stores are helping them.

2a. ANA has a number of "competitive" style games (e.g. FFG's Living Card Games and X-Wing) that thrive and depend on B&M stores' existence as play/tournament spaces. I am not making an argument that many or most or even a significant number of competitive-playing repeat-purchasers buy at B&Ms, just that the B&Ms DO provide the ONLY physical space outside of conventions which supports their competitive play habit/hobby and concomitant spending habits. ANA thus has a peculiar interest in B&M stores over and above that of, say Rio Grande.

2c. ANA determined that their short and long term profit potential would be hard if B&M stores are stagnant or dying, because B&Ms *DO* sell significant quantities of games that would not be sold otherwise, despite argument on BGG to the contrary. I have never purchases a game from anywhere other than an ONLINE store, have a collection of 3000+, yet I do not doubt this. And while casual consumers might go to Amazon, the fact that Target can sell copies of Catan and TTR at full retail suggests casual consumers/new hobbyists are probably perfectly happy browsing/buying at a dedicated B&M game store.

2d. It's morever likely that ANA believes that B&M's mere existence as institutions, physical edifices in the concrete world, serve as advertisements and anchors for the gaming hobby's existence in the public consciousness. Because of this, ANA determined that their long term profit potential would be further harmed if B&M stores are stagnant or dying.

2e. I've purchased ALL (save a tiny handful at FFG's event center during their holiday sale) 3000+ games/expansions at OLGSs. I have no need of FLGSs. But I fully believe ANA is in a better position to make these determinations than BGG users are, so they're probably correct. B&M stores DO help ANA's bottom line.

2f. But B&M stores existence is threatened by OLGS (and with certain fire-sale titles) amazon 3rd party/ebaypricing, and if FLGSs disappear, ANA's bottom line suffers.

3. ANA ALSO determined that their bottom line was being negatively affected by the independence of distributors and is taking action to regulate the wholesale market.

3a. Specifically -- and this is something I've gleaned through years of following all the OLGSs and noting the patterns by which games tend to go on sale -- while it is sometimes the case that a games manufacturer makes the decision to discount the wholesale price of a slow-selling title, causing the title to be discounted -- massively and regularly -- across the spectrum of OLGSs AND at 3rd party amazon seller/small ebay "retailers", it is also frequently the case that retail "fire sales" on a title are driven by an individual, independent distributor's decision to "blow out" a title it over-purchased to its customers.

When a distributor discounts a title it has a glut of, one of three things happen:
1. The distributor creates a relative short term depression in the game's retail price: for a while it's a regular "daily sale" or "sale of whatever holiday" title at OLGSs, and perhaps at a few amazon 3rd party/ebay outlets, but after a time it returns to normal.
2. Other distributors, so as not to be forced to sit on their full-wholesale-price copies of the title while only the first distributor moves their glut of the title, follow suit sooner or later, causing the retail price of the game to depress deeply for a long term, pretty much as if the discounting was initiated at the manufacturer level.
3. Perhaps after #2 occurs, but perhaps only after #1, the manufacturer (i.e. ANA) is forced to discount the game to the distributors, since a) the other distros that may not be overstocked on the title can't compete for sales to retail with the fire-selling distributor and are pissed about this and b) the B&M stores are pissed that even non-savvy customers checking ebay/amazon are seeing the title at great discounts they don't wish to match.

3b. This whole phenomenon pisses off every distro that didn't feel like it was time to fire-sale (since the game is devalued and their stock is inert), B&M stores (which are even less able to compete on price with fire-sale discounts than they are with "regular" 30-35% OLGS discounts), AND the manufacturers (ANA), which have their product devalued and are often forced to sell their remaining stock at a discount in order to mollify B&Ms and the non-fire-selling distros, therefore earning FAR less money for their game than they wanted/expected they could have eventually made had the individual disto(s) not made the decision to fire-sale.

4. ANA looked at two big problems that they saw as costing them money in the short term (#3) and long term (2 & 3) and pulled off a stroke of evil genius that they believe will make them a LOT more money.

5. They know price floors are hated. They also know they don't really help the manufacturer (ANA), since the manufacturer now sells fewer copies of the game (since the game is more expensive to the consumer than similar non-regulated titles) but has the same wholesale vs. MSRP pricing as other companies.

6. BOOM! They determined they don't need a price floor if they simply regulate/classify the entities authorized to buy their products at wholesale (from them or their distros), and, once classified/regulated, sell them to OLGSs for MORE than they sell to B&Ms. THIS is the reason for the codifying of retailers as one or the other and the licensing of retailers and distributors.

6. ANA and its authorized distros are going to sell to authorized OLGSs, which will NO DOUBT include CSI, MM, etc., for a smaller discount vs. MSRP than they will sell to B&M.

6a. I am GUESSING it's going to be a difference of 50-55% of MSRP for B&M vs. 60-65% for OLGSs, but I wouldn't be totally stunned to see OLGSs paying as much as 75% of retail.

6b. OLGSs have essentially demonstrated that they can survive marking up games (assuming purchase at 50%) by 1/3 or so (i.e. to 65% off retail). If you take 75% of retail and add a 1/3 mark up you get... voila, MSRP. So it COULD be that bad.

6c. BUT I think just as they realize the generic existence of B&Ms is good for them, they also realize that OLGSs have likewise been a tremendous source of "boom" for them. If OLGSs can still be 20% off MSRP on ANA games, they'll still have a place and still move significant quantities, especially with the rest of the industry (besides Mayfair/CSI, which have a far less well thought-out version of this policy in place wherein they don't get the GIANT piece of extra cake ANA is now going to get in profit from its sales to OLGSs) now effectively subsidizing OLGSs vis-a-vis ANA, since OLGSs will still carry everybody else's games at the old discounts vs. MSRP.

6d. Thus I predict we'll see roughly 20% off MSRP at OLGSs, based on selling to them for 20% more than they sell to B&Ms.

6e. ANA's calculus must be that even if BGG types will now buy fewer ANA titles at 20%-ish off MSRP than they now do at full "online retail" (30-35% off MSRP), a) every copy they do buy puts a hefty extra chunk of change in the distros'/ANAs' pockets since the wholesale price to OLGSs will be higher, offsetting lowered sales; and b) there will no longer be unauthorized fire-sales by their authorized distributors causing other distros to chase their prices and eventually ANA to chase the price, meaning ANA itself will ultimately sell a far higher percentage of their games at full WHOLESALE price, which makes them lots more money.

7. I expect they will ABSOLUTELY accommodate MM/CSI/etc.'s dual-nature operations so long as those entities formally separate their operations and agree not to leak product across the firewall.

7a. The OLGSs with B&M presence like CSI may have to do some paperwork and maybe stop offering pickup/selling online out of computers at their stores like CSI does, but other than that, they'll be fine. Except they won't be buying ANA products for the same discount, and there won't be distributor-initiated fire-sales fueling their holiday/daily sales anymore.

In the end, the discount games buyer is upset, ANA makes more money AND get to claim the noble virtue/prestige of "helping the little guy". Which they wouldn't care at all about if they perceived it wouldn't help their bottom line.
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Bryan Thunkd
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Sounds about right.
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Derry Salewski
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Makes sense.

If it gets to the point where I can't get the same deals I'm used to which is all that lets me keep up to date on half a dozen collectible ffg titles, I'll just sell complete collections of the ones I like least.

Since there's nowhere nearby to use them anyway. I need that discount to subsidize MY mortgage so I have a place to put a big table to play them all since nothing in my area is buying a big table to host any ffg organized play.

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Michael Denman
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Whether you are 100% correct or not, it's very refreshing to read something about the situation that's at least reasonable. All of the insane ravings I've been seeing from users all over the place just drive me nuts.
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Tyler Bishop
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This pretty much matches my instincts on the topic. At first I was a bit thrown by the dual announcement of A) distributor shake-up and B) FLGS/OLGS delineation and certification, but eventually I got to where you did as well on the reasoning. I think the percentage of inventory that gets fire-sold is overstated, but if you can squeeze an extra percent or two of profit from your inventory, that's worth the change.

Which reminds me, there's a pretty good possibility of behind-closed-doors deals between AMA and these five distributors. Volume and coverage are likely not the only reasons these ones were chosen to carry all the lines, and no others. There is every possibility that some of AMA's concerns WRT fire sales, OLGS/FLGS price discrepancies, and inventory firewall policing have been addressed in the distribution contracts. As a distributor, I'd definitely accept a little extra work and restriction on my customers in exchange for seeing an extra few percent from OLGS sales and finally being able to carry Days of Wonder.

I did hear unconfirmed specifics of a non-B&M price hike, but without quotable sources I won't bother passing them along.

:edit for clarity:
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Silver Bowen
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This being a stroke of evil genius depends on whether or not folks are willing to buy at a 20% discount from an OLGS. Since Amazon regular sells at around 25% and offers free shipping on individual titles with Prime (or at a $35 threshold), I suspect the answer is no.

The fundamental fact here is that you can't get blood from a stone. If ANA takes a bigger cut, without actually expanding the market, somebody else has to take a smaller cut. If the OLGS doesn't, the consumer will have to. Or they can continue to buy not-ANA game at the typical 35% discount instead. Are ANA games worth a 23% premium (not-ANA at $6.50 OLGS, assuming 35% discount, is $8 at 20%) to OLGS customers? Again, I suspect the answer is no.
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Leonard Moses II
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Based on past titles from Asmodee I would pay up to 10% off mrsp the way that I gladly do with new Mayfair games. I still do not begrudge them what I bought Nations for. It was good enough.

I bought most everything I want already. It isn't like it is hard to keep up with the release rate of games in my wheelhouse.

Of course I would try to save the 10% as that is a free nice game every so many purchases. Of course I would still use OLGS's and not brick and mortar. My OLGS can give me the same product as Brick and Mortar in the same condition.
 
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This pretty much lines up with my thinking.

Well stated.
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Matthew Kokaly
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Their success depends partially on whether other publishers follow suit. If they don't, they will lose market share and prices could fall again. The cats are already out of the bag on OLGS discounts.... If i was the competition, I would be embracing my new best friends in OLGS stores.
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Joshua Hamer
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Quote:
7. I expect they will ABSOLUTELY accommodate MM/CSI/etc.'s dual-nature operations so long as those entities formally separate their operations and agree not to leak product across the firewall.


This. MM's in-store sales are limited to dent and ding copies, which would otherwise be returned to the manufacturer at a loss. (Not accounting for in-store pickups, which are more of a service for the customer and a way to save on shipping costs. I don't see many customers in the store placing an order at the kiosk and having it brought out, but that's purely anecdotal.)

It seems to me that with the volume MM moves for them, it's worth maintaining that relationship. You probably won't see ANA titles as the Deal of the Day, they might get pulled off the Dent and Ding wall, but that'd be about it.
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toby
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mtkokaly wrote:
Their success depends partially on whether other publishers follow suit. If they don't, they will lose market share and prices could fall again. The cats are already out of the bag on OLGS discounts.... If i was the competition, I would be embracing my new best friends in OLGS stores.


Totally disagree, for the reasons stated. They make more money, by far, per copy they sell to OLGSs now. Sell a few fewer, sure, but make more. Moreover, they'll no longer have to dump their games to distros below Manufacturer's Starting Wholesale Price (MSWP, i just made that up) just to chase the price of a distro that's dumping a glut they were sitting on (which they won't be allowed to do anymore) and/or catch up with a reduced perceived value for a game that's been repeatedly discounted by distros (even if it's no longer being fire-sold), therefore they don't LOSE money on already manufactured product anymore, which makes up for even more of the revenue lost due to lower numbers of games sold (due to higher real-world online retail price).
 
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I have hundreds of games anyhow, I'll continue to stick to buying games on heavy clearance. Perhaps this price hike will mean even more games will have to be clearanced.
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While the detached and unemotional posting is appreciated, was it really necessary to create a fourth discussion about this? So far there are at least three other discussions about this change, one created already in Discussing Retailers and two in News. While the intent of this post seems to be to cool things down from the ridiculousness that's been posted in those other threads, I'm not sure that's going to be achieved by creating a fourth discussion where it can start all over again.
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Chris Laudermilk
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As always: follow the money. The OP's line of reasoning sounds good and may very well be accurate.

While reading through I had a realization. The car and home audio industry has long had an authorized distributor/vendor system set up. You only get support of any kind if you purchase from an authorized vendor, online or B&M. I get that much of this is to control the tech support/warranty issues that isn't necessarily a "feature" of the board game industry. But, there is also some control of the pricing and discount practices, and that is the relevant part. It basically addresses the fire sale/price depression that the OP covered.

Since I split my purchases between OLGS and FLGS, and really don't have any political/moral outrage over this, I'll just continue merrily on my way. If they publish a game I like, and copies are available at what I feel is a fair price I'll buy the game and enjoy it--if not, I'll move on to the next game. I have enough drama in my life that this simply isn't worth my time & energy to get worked up over.
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Jason Arnold
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Wouldn't it be much simpler to just institute a MAP across the board?

Also, it's really hard to argue that getting your games out to as many people as possible through any means possible doesn't also help grow the industry (be it stand-alone or competitive games).
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Monkeyman wrote:
Wouldn't it be much simpler to just institute a MAP across the board?


MAP's alienate and anger consumers. Some (substantial) portion of the negative reactions to ANA's new policies are due to the FUD surrounding it that made it sound like it would be setting up MAPs.
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Matthew Kokaly
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tobyjason wrote:
mtkokaly wrote:
Their success depends partially on whether other publishers follow suit. If they don't, they will lose market share and prices could fall again. The cats are already out of the bag on OLGS discounts.... If i was the competition, I would be embracing my new best friends in OLGS stores.


Totally disagree, for the reasons stated. They make more money, by far, per copy they sell to OLGSs now. Sell a few fewer, sure, but make more. Moreover, they'll no longer have to dump their games to distros below Manufacturer's Starting Wholesale Price (MSWP, i just made that up) just to chase the price of a distro that's dumping a glut they were sitting on (which they won't be allowed to do anymore) and/or catch up with a reduced perceived value for a game that's been repeatedly discounted by distros (even if it's no longer being fire-sold), therefore they don't LOSE money on already manufactured product anymore, which makes up for even more of the revenue lost due to lower numbers of games sold (due to higher real-world online retail price).


I think we are talking apples and oranges. You are talking profitability, I am talking market share. I think the pull to market share is bigger than the pull to high margin so they will need to compete on price at some point. If the competitors stand firm on lower prices and put out products just good enough, they should start to erode Asmodees marketshare. I'd be surprised if losing marketshare does not present a real problem for them.
 
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Jason Arnold
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BeyondMonopoly wrote:
Monkeyman wrote:
Wouldn't it be much simpler to just institute a MAP across the board?


MAP's alienate and anger consumers. Some (substantial) portion of the negative reactions to ANA's new policies are due to the FUD surrounding it that made it sound like it would be setting up MAPs.


Oh, I understand. But if their true goal is to support B&M stores, I don't really get possibly leaving major online players in place without MAP; it doesn't accomplish much.

Oh forget it, I don't much understand anything in these press releases, nor do I think I'm alone in this
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travvller wrote:
While the detached and unemotional posting is appreciated, was it really necessary to create a fourth discussion about this? So far there are at least three other discussions about this change, one created already in Discussing Retailers and two in News. While the intent of this post seems to be to cool things down from the ridiculousness that's been posted in those other threads, I'm not sure that's going to be achieved by creating a fourth discussion where it can start all over again.


Than just ignore it. What really doesn't help is when people think they are admins.

Jorune
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Bryan Thunkd
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BeyondMonopoly wrote:
Monkeyman wrote:
Wouldn't it be much simpler to just institute a MAP across the board?


MAP's alienate and anger consumers. Some (substantial) portion of the negative reactions to ANA's new policies are due to the FUD surrounding it that made it sound like it would be setting up MAPs.
Most of the time consumers aren't aware that there are MAP's in place.

My company sells a number of items that have MAP pricing set and I'd be really surprised if our average customers had a clue that the manufacturer had established a MAP pricing program for those items.

The average consumer doesn't pay as much attention to their purchases (and the behavior of the manufacturers of those items) to the degree that BGG'ers do with boardgames. And I doubt BGG'ers pay attention outside board games. I mean do you know whether there's a MAP program on the eggs you bought at the grocery, or for the socks you are wearing, or your golf clubs, etc.? I doubt you follow the press releases or pricing programs for most of the items you buy.
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2f. But B&M stores existence is threatened by OLGS (and with certain fire-sale titles) amazon 3rd party/ebaypricing, and if FLGSs disappear, ANA's bottom line suffers.

I mentioned this in the 2nd News Blog post/thread.... folks have been predicting the fall of the B&M since at least as long I've been on BGG (10 years), but it never happens and no real proof... and as I pointed out in the other thread (and I agree a 4th thread wasn't needed as this is what happens, nothing new just have to rehash everything from the "older" threads) just the opposite, www.cooolstuffgames.com in last 4 years keeps growing/expanding their B&M operations.

only reason for failed B&M's is same reason any startup fails... because the majority do. Asmodee and Mayfair policies aren't going to keep a B&M with a non-successful business model from going out of business....
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JeffyJeff wrote:
Quote:
2f. But B&M stores existence is threatened by OLGS (and with certain fire-sale titles) amazon 3rd party/ebaypricing, and if FLGSs disappear, ANA's bottom line suffers.

I mentioned this in the 2nd News Blog post/thread.... folks have been predicting the fall of the B&M since at least as long I've been on BGG (10 years), but it never happens and no real proof... and as I pointed out in the other thread (and I agree a 4th thread wasn't needed as this is what happens, nothing new just have to rehash everything from the "older" threads) just the opposite, www.cooolstuffgames.com in last 4 years keeps growing/expanding their B&M operations.

only reason for failed B&M's is same reason any startup fails... because the majority do. Asmodee and Mayfair policies aren't going to keep a B&M with a non-successful business model from going out of business....


I'll second this. There was 1 boardgame store that was over a half hour away from me when I started in the hobby. There are now three others. I have NO IDEA what keeps them in business since I don't frequent them enough (Magic? Mini's?)

Jorune
 
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Josh A
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I noticed that most of the gsmes in my collection that I enjoy are around $33-$35, I hope I still end up paying that much for good games.

P.S: I want Abyss but I feel it should cost around $33 not $40 like Five Tribes. Both are games designed by Bruno Cathala that get compared.
 
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tobyjason wrote:
2a. ANA has a number of "competitive" style games (e.g. FFG's Living Card Games and X-Wing) that thrive and depend on B&M stores' existence as play/tournament spaces. I am not making an argument that many or most or even a significant number of competitive-playing repeat-purchasers buy at B&Ms, just that the B&Ms DO provide the ONLY physical space outside of conventions which supports their competitive play habit/hobby and concomitant spending habits. ANA thus has a peculiar interest in B&M stores over and above that of, say Rio Grande.


Just to comment on this one point - this is a bit of a chicken and egg situation. ANA only provides tournament support to B&M stores, so no one else can make the attempt to provide such a space.

Our local club regularly hosts game events for large groups of people. We could readily put together a sizable X-Wing tournament, and draw the TOs necessary to run it. But prize support is only available to retailers.

So I would argue that this is a conscious choice ANA makes - not a necessary state of affairs.
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Jorune wrote:
I have NO IDEA what keeps them in business since I don't frequent them enough (Magic? Mini's?)


It's almost always Magic and/or Minis.
 
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