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Subject: Overview of odds for the dice? rss

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Willem Moransard
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So, I'm pretty terrible at odds calculation.
I find it very hard to calculate my % of succes when rolling dice.
For instance, I can roll three dice to inflict brawl damage, I need 3 "brawl" icons in total to kill an enemy, what would the odds of succes be? Should I play another card to increase my odds and have a bigger chance of getting knocked down this turn?
Is there anyone here who can shed some light on this? Maybe a nice spreadsheet?

I do love the game! So very tense, every card played is a risk, nice objective based gameplay with thematic random events...man o man, what a winner
 
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Trevor Taylor
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FARINGDON
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Not super helpful of me, but I remember seeing an android app where you could put in the dice being rolled and the result required and it would calculate the odds for you. But I don't remember its name though soblue Sorry
 
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Max Maloney
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"If trees could scream, would we be so cavalier about cutting them down? We might, if they screamed all the time, for no good reason." -Jack Handey
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fillem wrote:
So, I'm pretty terrible at odds calculation.
I find it very hard to calculate my % of succes when rolling dice.

The dice are simpler than they look. There are an equal number of symbols of each type (six), so all attacks average 1 hit/die.

However, the distribution is different. What this means is that Brawl is very consistent, because the sides are 0,1,1,1,1,2. So you will much more often have exactly as may hits as dice rolled.

The bomb sides are 0,0,0,1,2,3. Even though that still adds up to six hits and averages as many hits as dice, you are much more likely to get lower or higher results. This also means, in theory, your maximum result is higher (all 3s would be 3 times the number of dice rolled in hits).

Bullet is in between the two: 0,0,1,1,2,2.

So when you want to "do the odds," remember that the average is equal to the number of dice rolled, but if you really need to make a certain kill, you will want extra dice for bullet attacks and even more so for bomb.

The converse is that throwing out a low damage bomb attack might not be a total waste. You can toss out 1 or 2 die bomb attacks knowing you are more likely to get a higher result than with brawl. While you'll still have more failures than kills, you may find it is worthwhile to spend a card on a 40% chance to kill a couple creatures in one space because spending only a single card doesn't cost you much.
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Thibaud Dejardin
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Let's not forget that bombs touch everything in the zone, so they are indeed more powerful (and monsters have usually less defenses against bombs).

Usually, Brawl is relatively "secure": if you need 4 hits, you have good odds to have 4 hits with 4 dices, and it's almost certain to have them with 5 dices and a reroll.

Ranged is kinda tricky. You have 2/3 chances to succeed, and each success has 50% chances to be double. It's a better way to have a chance to make more than 6 hits (usually necessary for the bosses), but you can make a lot less, too.

Finally, bomb is really random: 50% chances to make 0 hits, and otherwise, you make 1, 2 or 3 hits.
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Joel Carr
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just failed act 2, 6 bomb dice+1=1 result(three elit corrupted humans in a spawn zone)....shake well mainly it was do to the foul wind event that flipped the coin down... but that whiff was the end.

I play very 'tight' trying to ensure kills, however the bombs can be really powerful... The demo is the luck character. I think I like the Marksmen the best so far with the sniper focus(I think...the one that makes all shots 2 zone minimums.)

game is tons of fun

 
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Loig Roumois
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my favorite is clearly Rat the melee expert. I am death incarnate!!!! muhahahhahah
 
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I ran some simulations, with a million rolls per data point. Hopefully I haven't made a mistake in my program.


-------------------------------------------------- BRAWL
num dice rolled
defense 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 83.3% 97.2% 99.5% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
2 16.7% 75.0% 94.0% 98.7% 99.7% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0%
3 0.0% 25.0% 70.4% 90.9% 97.6% 99.4% 99.9% 100.0%
4 0.0% 2.7% 29.6% 67.5% 88.3% 96.4% 99.0% 99.7%
5 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 32.5% 65.5% 86.1% 95.2% 98.5%
6 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 9.1% 34.4% 64.2% 84.1% 94.0%
7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 11.7% 35.8% 63.0% 82.5%
8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.4% 13.9% 36.9% 62.2%
9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 3.6% 15.8% 37.9%
10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 4.8% 17.4%
11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% 6.0%
12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.5%

-------------------------------------------------- BULLET
num dice rolled
defense 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 66.6% 88.9% 96.3% 98.8% 99.6% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0%
2 33.4% 66.5% 85.2% 93.8% 97.5% 99.1% 99.6% 99.9%
3 0.0% 33.3% 63.0% 81.5% 91.4% 96.1% 98.3% 99.3%
4 0.0% 11.1% 37.1% 61.7% 79.0% 89.3% 94.9% 97.6%
5 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 38.2% 60.5% 76.8% 87.4% 93.6%
6 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 18.5% 39.5% 59.7% 75.3% 85.9%
7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 21.0% 40.4% 59.0% 73.9%
8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 8.6% 23.1% 41.1% 58.4%
9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 10.7% 24.7% 41.5%
10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 3.9% 12.6% 26.1%
11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.2% 14.1%
12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.6% 6.4%

-------------------------------------------------- BOMB
num dice rolled
defense 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 50.0% 75.0% 87.5% 93.7% 96.9% 98.4% 99.2% 99.6%
2 33.3% 58.3% 75.0% 85.4% 91.7% 95.3% 97.4% 98.6%
3 16.7% 38.9% 58.3% 73.0% 83.0% 89.6% 93.8% 96.3%
4 0.0% 16.7% 37.0% 55.3% 69.7% 80.0% 87.3% 91.9%
5 0.0% 8.4% 23.1% 39.9% 55.7% 68.5% 78.5% 85.5%
6 0.0% 2.8% 12.1% 25.7% 41.0% 55.2% 67.3% 76.8%
7 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% 14.3% 27.4% 41.4% 54.7% 66.2%
8 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 7.6% 17.1% 29.2% 42.0% 54.4%
9 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 3.3% 9.6% 19.0% 30.5% 42.6%
10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 4.8% 11.4% 20.7% 31.6%
11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 2.2% 6.3% 13.2% 22.0%
12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% 3.2% 7.7% 14.6%


For example, if you need to do 3 damage and you roll 4 dice:
- brawl damage: 90.9%
- bullet damage: 81.5%
- bomb damage: 73.0%

Brawl odds are highest because it's the most consistent.

On the other hand, if you need to do 4 damage and you roll 3 dice:
- brawl damage: 29.6%
- bullet damage: 37.1%
- bomb damage: 37.0%

Brawl odds are lowest because you have less chance of rolling multiple hits per die.
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Here are the odds if Henry is with you, allowing you to reroll your lowest die upon failure. Henry is awesome! Never leave home without Henry.


-------------------------------------------------- BRAWL
num dice rolled
defense 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 97.2% 99.5% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
2 30.5% 94.0% 98.7% 99.7% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
3 0.0% 40.8% 91.0% 97.6% 99.4% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0%
4 0.0% 7.4% 47.7% 88.3% 96.4% 99.0% 99.7% 99.9%
5 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 52.5% 86.1% 95.2% 98.5% 99.6%
6 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 18.0% 55.4% 84.1% 94.0% 98.0%
7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 22.6% 57.3% 82.5% 92.8%
8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 5.7% 26.7% 58.4% 81.1%
9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 8.1% 29.9% 59.0%
10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.6% 10.6% 32.6%
11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.6% 13.1%
12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 3.7%

-------------------------------------------------- BULLET
num dice rolled
defense 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 88.9% 96.3% 98.8% 99.6% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
2 55.6% 85.2% 93.8% 97.5% 99.0% 99.6% 99.9% 100.0%
3 0.0% 59.2% 81.5% 91.4% 96.2% 98.4% 99.3% 99.7%
4 0.0% 26.0% 60.4% 79.0% 89.3% 94.9% 97.6% 98.9%
5 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 60.2% 77.0% 87.5% 93.6% 96.8%
6 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 37.4% 59.4% 75.3% 85.9% 92.4%
7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.8% 39.5% 59.0% 73.9% 84.5%
8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 20.9% 40.7% 58.4% 72.7%
9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 23.7% 41.6% 58.0%
10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 11.0% 25.7% 42.0%
11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 13.3% 27.0%
12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 5.4% 15.1%

-------------------------------------------------- BOMB
num dice rolled
defense 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 75.0% 87.5% 93.7% 96.9% 98.4% 99.2% 99.6% 99.8%
2 55.6% 75.0% 85.5% 91.7% 95.3% 97.4% 98.6% 99.2%
3 30.6% 57.8% 72.9% 83.0% 89.6% 93.8% 96.3% 97.9%
4 0.0% 35.5% 55.3% 69.7% 80.0% 87.3% 92.0% 95.1%
5 0.0% 19.9% 39.7% 55.5% 68.6% 78.4% 85.6% 90.6%
6 0.0% 7.3% 25.1% 40.9% 55.2% 67.2% 76.8% 84.1%
7 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 27.2% 41.4% 54.6% 66.2% 75.5%
8 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 16.7% 29.2% 42.2% 54.4% 65.3%
9 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 9.0% 19.0% 30.5% 42.5% 54.3%
10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 11.2% 20.6% 31.5% 42.9%
11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 6.1% 13.0% 22.1% 32.5%
12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 2.9% 7.6% 14.6% 23.2%
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Willem Moransard
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haha, wow, that's awesome, thanks!
 
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