Scott Kullberg
United States
Needham
Massachusetts
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I've just gotten myself in a bit of a cliffhanger- rolled 12 to hit with a torpedo, follow up with a 12, then roll 1d6 which came up "6".

Which is the correct rule for circular runs? In 14.8 it says roll 2d6 and the torpedo hits on a 5 or less. But chart S4 says to roll 1d6 where 6 is a hit.

If it's 2d6 I'm safe- with a 6 on the first die I can't be hit. If it's 1d6 I'm sunk; I already rolled the 50/50 dud (it's 1/43) and got a 4.

I've been beating heck out of a convoy in the first Empire box for 25k tons so far so I'd like to keep going
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Christopher Schall
United States
Evans City
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Ouch@! I think you're sunk. The chart would appear to be correct and you only roll 1d6.
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Gregory Smith
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Pennsylvania
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Heya,

Circular run is: bad miss (12) causes circular check, another (12) it has gone circular and you get to try to evade it...the final roll is 1d6.

The chart is correct, the rules, unfortunately, a small error. I had made a change to make it even less likely to occur, and it didn't get corrected in the rulebook. So the rulebook was correct -originally- but I found it was too excessive. Hence the change to 1d6, 6 only. This is less likely than 2d6 2-5 sunk - not in your case, though. LOL.


My apologies for the rules error.

Greg

PS you rolled 5 sixes in a row, pretty impressive
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Chick Lewis
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Claremont
California
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I am MUCH more terrified by mines than circular runs.

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Scott Kullberg
United States
Needham
Massachusetts
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Oh well, on to a new sub. Thanks for the rules answer.

That was (would have been) an interesting patrol- I gamed out the rest just in case. I shot off all but 4 torps re-re-attacking that convoy, got those 4 stuck behind broken aft doors, finished off a cripple with the gun for another 7000 tons, then aborted home from the first Empire box. 32k tons, not bad for a one-month patrol.


A circular run is a 1/7776 chance (1/36*1/36*1/6), halved for duds... gotta happen to someone sometime though


edit: Oh yeah, minefields are bad, bad news. 0.77% chance of sinking every time you encounter an Empire box. That adds up uncomfortably fast. (Half that with a veteran crew, half again with an elite crew.)
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Gregory Smith
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Heya Scott,

Yeah sorry for the bad news Ironically my change in rules to IMPROVE your chance of survival happened to doom you

Good work on the math, though. We fired about 15k+ torps during the Pacific war, with one circular run known to have occurred which resulted in a sinking (the Tang. Although some sources state two...certainly it's suspected in a second loss.) Hence the odds as they are, they are roughly correct mathematically.

On the other hand, the key to minefield survival is getting that crew improved! But minefields were suspected in about 8 losses, IIRC. It was a hazard.

Greg
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James Moore
United States
Waynesville
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Sturmer wrote:
Heya Scott,

Yeah sorry for the bad news Ironically my change in rules to IMPROVE your chance of survival happened to doom you

Good work on the math, though. We fired about 15k+ torps during the Pacific war, with one circular run known to have occurred which resulted in a sinking (the Tang. Although some sources state two...certainly it's suspected in a second loss.) Hence the odds as they are, they are roughly correct mathematically.

On the other hand, the key to minefield survival is getting that crew improved! But minefields were suspected in about 8 losses, IIRC. It was a hazard.

Greg


Yes, the Tullibee is the other boat suspected of being sunk by a circular run.

EDIT: Confirmed. Tullibee had one survivor, one of the lookouts. He stated the boat had just fired two torpedoes at a convoy in a surface attack on 3/26/44, and one of the torpedoes came back around and sank the boat.
He survived by being blown clear of the boat in the explosion, then got picked up by a Japanese destroyer and spent the rest of the war in a POW camp..
Source: Navy Department Official History of USS Tullibee

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