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Subject: Hillary Clinton will beat Trump - right? rss

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The following polling data shows Hillary will beat Trump.

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/ge...


Anyone want to disagree?

Googling this question shows several articles that talk about how Trump could beat her:
https://www.google.com/search?q=poll+trump+beat+clinton
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Paul W
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That data's actually a lot closer than I'd would expect: a more accurate summary would be "Clinton is a moderate favorite over Trump".

Where things really get interesting are if a Clinton/Trump match up results in Bloomberg entering the race.

I would be surprised if a Trump candidacy didn't result in some sort of significant third party candidate emerging. If that candidate emerges on the right, then Hilary wins easily, if they're a moderate, it's pretty difficult to predict where the race might go.
 
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Hillary would have to run an abysmal campaign...which is entirely possible given that she has even less charisma than John Kerry. In the end, though, she's got too many structural advantages, some of which Trump is handing her by insulting every minority group he mentions. It shouldn't even be close.

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fizzmore wrote:

I would be surprised if a Trump candidacy didn't result in some sort of significant third party candidate emerging.


Here you go --

Some Republicans saying they will run a third party candidate:

GOP badly split as Trump, Clinton seek Super Tuesday wins
http://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2016-02-29/raci...

I'm wondering if this could even create a new main conservative party to replace the Republican party. What would they call it?
 
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Koldfoot wrote:
This time two cycles ago Hillary, the presumed nominee, was going to beat all the repubs, too.


And almost certainly would have. Fortunately for her, Sanders is no Obama.
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He can absolutely beat her. He wins the beer test. Name a candidate that lost the beer test but won the election.
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There is a strong possibility that Trump beats Clinton. Clinton's cards are already on the table. She has no surprises. Trump can say and do anything. The only issue he cannot waver on is his staunch opposition to immigration. He go left of Bernie Sanders or right of Pat Buchanan on any other issue he chooses. He can pledge to throw Bush and Cheney in prison if he wants.

He is already set up to do this. He has already made many statements attacking hedge funds, drug companies, the Bushes, etc. If his campaign becomes 90% about single payer health care and throwing the insurance companies off the gravy train, even his "conservative" base will not abandon him because they support him primarily because of his cult of personality (and his stance on immigration)

Also consider that if Clinton is the nominee, you have a huge cohort of liberals who will be very very angry that a "criminal" stole the election through superdelegates and other un-democratic measures. This is the same group of people that were disenfranchised by Bush's un-democratic victory over Gore, who won the popular vote. For nearly two decades the "system" has been screwing liberals out of the candidates that actually have the support of the people. Trump will channel this energy. He can adopt all of Bernie Sanders' positions (except immigration), savagely attack on her on corruption, and win easily.

Trump's current supporters will not care how liberal he becomes in the next 8 months. He can stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot someone, and he wouldn't lose any voters.

If Hillary hits back on the corruption angle, he can say "You're damn right I'm corrupt- I've bought off hundreds of politicians, including you."

Trump is absolutely the most likely president in 2017.
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Hillary is extremely vulnerable. She ends up on the defensive very easily and completely loses all charisma when attacked.

She has had an extremely easy path to the nomination as she has essentially run on name recognition and has faced basically no character based attacks which, accurate or inaccurate cause her to instantly become completely unappealing to voters.

Trump on the other hand has been in the crosshairs of the entire Republican establishment and has completely laughed it off. He's running as a huge fucking asshole who will probably declare himself emperor, and people are voting for him anyway, so there is basically literally nothing Hillary can attack him on. The only think that people can say about him is the truth: his ideas are stupid. Unfortunately, his voters are stupid, so that will have basically no effect.

The fundamental question is will more smart and scared people halfheartedly turn out for the unlikable Hillary than dumb and/or evil people will show up for would be King Trump.
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Rob
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How about this guy entering the race? GOP's secret weapon if Rubio loses Florida:

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bkawcazn wrote:
There is a strong possibility that Trump beats Clinton. Clinton's cards are already on the table. She has no surprises. Trump can say and do anything. The only issue he cannot waver on is his staunch opposition to immigration. He go left of Bernie Sanders or right of Pat Buchanan on any other issue he chooses. He can pledge to throw Bush and Cheney in prison if he wants.

He is already set up to do this. He has already made many statements attacking hedge funds, drug companies, the Bushes, etc. If his campaign becomes 90% about single payer health care and throwing the insurance companies off the gravy train, even his "conservative" base will not abandon him because they support him primarily because of his cult of personality (and his stance on immigration)

Also consider that if Clinton is the nominee, you have a huge cohort of liberals who will be very very angry that a "criminal" stole the election through superdelegates and other un-democratic measures. This is the same group of people that were disenfranchised by Bush's un-democratic victory over Gore, who won the popular vote. For nearly two decades the "system" has been screwing liberals out of the candidates that actually have the support of the people. Trump will channel this energy. He can adopt all of Bernie Sanders' positions (except immigration), savagely attack on her on corruption, and win easily.

Trump's current supporters will not care how liberal he becomes in the next 8 months. He can stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot someone, and he wouldn't lose any voters.

If Hillary hits back on the corruption angle, he can say "You're damn right I'm corrupt- I've bought off hundreds of politicians, including you."

Trump is absolutely the most likely president in 2017.


Missing the part where the liberals will be voting against Trump, instead of for Hillary. You overlook the advantage of running against a candidate who has included committing war crimes as a campaign promise. And his supporters still have not managed to break 50% in any contest yet. Making your scenario sound more like wishful thinking.
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Rob
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bkawcazn wrote:

Trump is absolutely the most likely president in 2017.


Yep. Hillary's going to crumble against him come debate time. He's going to talk about all the naughty things she's done and it's going to be epic. I can't stand her but I'm probably going to feel bad for her it's going to be so rough. She's going to be Trumped for sure. She'll be so unappealing after he's done with her (as if she wasn't already) it will be a landslide victory for Trump come election day.
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Wait, is Clinton or Trump the one running against a candidate promising to commit war crimes?
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rylfrazier wrote:
He's running as a huge fucking asshole who will probably declare himself emperor, and people are voting for him anyway, so there is basically literally nothing Hillary can attack him on. The only think that people can say about him is the truth: his ideas are stupid. Unfortunately, his voters are stupid, so that will have basically no effect.

Ha ha, so true! Made me laugh, thanks.
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R. Frazier
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Clinton beats Sanders but falls apart on utter lack of likability/charisma against any republican and any sustained personal attacks in the general.
 
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rylfrazier wrote:
Hillary is extremely vulnerable. She ends up on the defensive very easily and completely loses all charisma when attacked.

She has had an extremely easy path to the nomination as she has essentially run on name recognition and has faced basically no character based attacks which, accurate or inaccurate cause her to instantly become completely unappealing to voters.

Trump on the other hand has been in the crosshairs of the entire Republican establishment and has completely laughed it off. He's running as a huge fucking asshole who will probably declare himself emperor, and people are voting for him anyway, so there is basically literally nothing Hillary can attack him on. The only think that people can say about him is the truth: his ideas are stupid. Unfortunately, his voters are stupid, so that will have basically no effect.

The fundamental question is will more smart and scared people halfheartedly turn out for the unlikable Hillary than dumb and/or evil people will show up for would be King Trump.


it's my belief that republicans will hold their nose and vote trump if he is their parties candidate- despite anything they say now.

HOWEVER-Drew seems pretty upset by Trump so I could be misreading it.

All my face to face republican friends are absolutely not talking about Trump either way. In fact, they are uncharacteristically quiet about the republican election right now.
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Fortunately, given her age, he can't say she's bleeding out of her wherever.
 
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robininni wrote:
bkawcazn wrote:

Trump is absolutely the most likely president in 2017.


Yep. Hillary's going to crumble against him come debate time. He's going to talk about all the naughty things she's done and it's going to be epic. I can't stand her but I'm probably going to feel bad for her it's going to be so rough. She's going to be Trumped for sure. She'll be so unappealing after he's done with her (as if she wasn't already) it will be a landslide victory for Trump come election day.
And she will reciprocate and point how dodgy hiring and his string of failed marriages.

Trumps biggest weakness is if he decides to make this a campaign about personalities.
 
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Anything is possible I suppose, but I don't see Trump beating Hillary in the general. The demographics just aren't on his side. He won't win with African Americans, and he won't win with Hispanics and Latinos. Hillary will likely carry the population centers in most states where it matters for the electoral vote and Trump will get huge swaths of rural red states where the population is mostly white and rural. In other words it is probably going to look a lot like the electoral map in the last election. It would be close, just like Obama/Romney, but I still think it would be a Hillary win.



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Jon Badolato
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The latest CNN poll

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/01/politics/donald-trump-hillary-...

You can explore more here and actually play out some scenarios

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

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Ron Preisach
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jonb wrote:
Anything is possible I suppose, but I don't see Trump beating Hillary in the general. The demographics just aren't on his side. He won't win with African Americans, and he won't win with Hispanics and Latinos. Hillary will likely carry the population centers in most states where it matters for the electoral vote and Trump will get huge swaths of rural red states where the population is mostly white and rural. In other words it is probably going to look a lot like the electoral map in the last election. It would be close, just like Obama/Romney, but I still think it would be a Hillary win.





Yeah, seriously. Let's assume that Trump does as "well" with minorities as Romney did. Okay, he loses. Two demographics that he's going to lose worse than Romney did are going to be women and Hispanics. So, yeah, he loses.
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Just imagine if the electoral college were abolished. The Republicans might as well not even run candidates. In that case (with 2004 as a caveat), there last presidential election victory would have been 1988.
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Stirlingmoomoo wrote:

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Koldfoot wrote:
rylfrazier wrote:
Clinton beats Sanders but falls apart on utter lack of likability/charisma against any republican and any sustained personal attacks in the general.


Obviously.

That is why..... Oh nevermind.


Yeah baby!

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