Mike Stiles
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For the record here's the result from part 1, back in the beginning of December

Quote:
Poll
Who will be the winning GOP Candidate in the 2016 Primary?
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
Bush
8.3% 7
Carson
1.2% 1
Christie
0.0% 0
Cruz
8.3% 7
Fiorina
0.0% 0
Gilmore
0.0% 0
Graham
0.0% 0
Huckabee
0.0% 0
Kasich
2.4% 2
Pataki
0.0% 0
Paul
0.0% 0
Rubio
48.8% 41
Santorum
1.2% 1
Trump
29.8% 25
Voters 84
This poll is now closed.   84 answers
Poll created by windsagio
Closes: Tue Mar 1, 2016 6:00 am


So here's a new one:

Poll
Who will win the GOP primary?
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
Cruz
14.3% 9
Rubio
9.5% 6
Trump
52.4% 33
Other/Convention madness.
23.8% 15
Voters 63
This poll is now closed.   63 answers
Poll created by windsagio
Closes: Thu Mar 31, 2016 6:00 am


I'm still on Team T where are folks now?
 
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James King
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galad2003 wrote:
Trump. Fuck it's going to be Trump.

But in all fairness the GOP had a bunch of limp dicks who had nothing to say.

As opposed to one hard dick who had nothing specific of substance to say other than broad, undefined policy proposals?


galad2003 wrote:
They are just the same old, same old and had no message, much less any personal charisma. Just more corporate lackies going to sell out the American public.

You mean, unlike Donald Trump who's already publicly acknowledged that he'd bought those same services from the politicians he donated to in order to unduly influence them, legislatively speaking?


galad2003 wrote:
People are pissed off at the way things are going and they are blaming the government and immigrants.

No, it's *Donald Trump* who's directing his followers to scapegoat the government and immigrants.


galad2003 wrote:
Gotta remember that Wall Street has been doing well financially while Main Street has suffered.

Which is due in no small part that over the past decades, businessmen like Donald Trump have preferred to outsource jobs to China and Mexico (where Trump-related merchandise were produced) that might well have been made here in the USA.

Color me unimpressed by Trump's abject hypocrisy, especially since he never sounded off to protest NAFTA and GATT before they were passed by Congress 20 years ago.


galad2003 wrote:
Wages are down, the dollar is down and numbers like unemployment and inflation are fabricated and are way worse than what is presented. I guess people see Trump as a way to fix this, bring jobs back to the US and get rid of "those damn Mexicans stealing all their jobs."

Are you referring to those jobs for which U.S. employers willfully and knowingly hire illegal aliens but aren't punished for doing so? (Nor has Trump yet called for their punishment or advocated any meaningful policy goals to punish them.)


galad2003 wrote:
The other GOP candidates are just going to be business of screwing the American people over as usual. Except maybe Cruz, but he is creepy and slimy looking.

But aren't Ted Cruz's Dominionist beliefs even creepier and slimier than his personal looks?


galad2003 wrote:
That's my theory. I just don't see Trump doing any of that. But he knows what to say so far. So we'll see. Maybe if he wins the nomination it will shake up the establishment enough that the GOP will take notice and change their game.

Since there is not much, if any, genuine traditional GOP Establishment left, you'll just have to settle for its current Tea Party Republican Establishment which replaced it.



 
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Donald
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I may ruin things with numbers but:

Delegates Remaining: 1,612

Delegates won

D. Trump 382

T. Cruz 300

M. Rubio 128

J. Kasich 35

1,237 Delegates Needed for Nomination

Cruz can still win. When he lost on Saturday it was by a small margin and when he won it was by double the amount. The best thing now is for Romney to give another speech.

Best thing for Trump, I mean.


Source
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Wendell
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Donald wrote:
I may ruin things with numbers but:

Delegates Remaining: 1,612

Delegates won

D. Trump 382

T. Cruz 300

M. Rubio 128

J. Kasich 35

1,237 Delegates Needed for Nomination

Cruz can still win. When he lost on Saturday it was by a small margin and when he won it was by double the amount. The best thing now is for Romney to give another speech.

Best thing for Trump, I mean.


Source


Mathematically, Cruz CAN still win, though his numbers here are boosted a bit by the fact that his best state - Texas - has already happened.
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MGK
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Looking at the next ten days:

Today - Puerto Rico. Nobody's polled this for the GOP because Puerto Rico doesn't have electoral votes and because it goes pretty reliably Democratic. But I will go out on a limb and suggest that Trump is unlikely to win it. It's not a big deal if he loses it.

Tuesday: Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan and Mississippi. Even with his campaign flagging a bit, Trump should probably win MI - the solid South has been his strongest area and he's won literally every state that borders Mississippi so far. Hawaii and Idaho have not had a lot of polling because they're Hawaii and Idaho, but Trump leads in both states, although Cruz has been making inroads in Idaho.

Michigan is the biggest state on Tuesday and it's also going to be the one the media focuses on, and right now it looks like a tossup between Trump and Kasich. Which really doesn't hurt Trump either way, because anything that further spreads out and distributes "establishment" votes helps him somewhat.

March 12: Guam and DC. Nobody cares and it doesn't matter.

March 15: Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina. Rubio is essentially banking everything on winning Florida in order to make the "Rubio via contested convention!" argument, and it's probably not going to happen because Rubio has loser-stink all over him now, the same loser-stink that Trump smeared all over Jeb Bush. Kasich is banking on winning Ohio for the same reason Rubio wants Florida, but Kasich actually has a very good chance of winning Ohio because it's his state. Trump should take Illinois and North Carolina, Trump and Cruz probably fight for Missouri.

If Rubio were to drop out in the next couple of days, it would hurt Trump's chances a lot. But he's not going to do that, because Rubio's political career is now dead in the water unless he can win Florida - if he wins Florida he at least can run for, say, Governor or something, and then resurrect his national political career a decade from now. That's why he's still in it: he's already mostly lost the nomination process, he's just trying to keep the gravy train alive.
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Chad Ellis
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I think the "Rubio has already lost everything so he has nothing left to lose" argument is absurd.

First off, let's not pretend that national politics isn't full of rewards for "good behavior". If Rubio drops out now and endorses Cruz then he's a hell of a lot better off on a half-dozen measures then if he sticks with it and loses Florida. Sure, his best theoretically-possible outcomes involve winning Florida -- but he's around 20 points down in Florida. If he drops out now he can say that he was confident he would win Florida but that at this point the delegate count was too heavy against him even with that and so it was time to start the process of uniting the party.

Don't get me wrong -- I think Rubio's "stock" has gone way down in this campaign. He handled a lot of things poorly and is correctly seen as having managed only one really impressive feat -- cheapening the conversation with Trump. But that doesn't mean that he's at zero, either in terms of politics or the sort of sweetheart jobs that well-behaved politicians get after their careers end.
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Frank F
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The US has been secretly fascist for decades. The fact that it is becoming openly fascist is unsurprising.
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LightRider wrote:
The US has been secretly fascist for decades.

I'll bite. How do you figure?
 
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Eric "Shippy McShipperson" Mowrer
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Any Republican will tell you that Obama is a fascist and any Democrat will tell you that W. was a fascist.
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Ahh...

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Mike Stiles
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Koldfoot wrote:
That was in December?

I guess I was still convinced the establishment would steal it. I voted Rubio. Now I'm not so sure.

I think Cruz is looking better and better to the establishment. I don't think he can stop the Trump train, though.

Maybe.

If the GOP doesn't back nominee Trump, the riot would be such that they will lose the house and senate and Supreme Court.

I don't see any kind of brokered convention.


Yeah, 12/6/15 The weird title is because I originally just bumped that thread before I decided it'd be clearer in it's own.

~~~

The brokered convention thing is an interesting question: I'd tend to guess that you're right, they'll worry about short term losses.

Goes back to my idea though; they let him win the primary without too much struggle, but don't give him much institutional support in the general - then if/when he implodes, they clean up, having pretty handily discredited the teaparty elements & regain control.
 
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James Myers
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Thought Rubio, but it's hard to deny the data, as it looks like Trump.
 
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Boaty McBoatface
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Trump will win the popular vote, there will be massive recriminations and shouting and then he will be eventually handed the crown after weeks of childishness.

Weeks ago I would not have said he could win, now it really does look like he can.
 
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Boaty McBoatface
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Gialmere wrote:
LightRider wrote:
The US has been secretly fascist for decades.

I'll bite. How do you figure?
2 bitcon + 2 bitcon=5bitcon.
 
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Bat Profile
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Cruz has already won Texas, he won't take Ohio and he won't take Florida and we are out of the South now.

It is an uphill climb for Cruz to catch up, let alone pull ahead.
 
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James King
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Koldfoot wrote:
Trump isn't the tea party guy.

Cruz is.

Wrong! Donald Trump, the father of Birtherism, is most definitely a Tea Party guy from the ever-declining Libertarian wing of the Tea Party whereas Ted Cruz comes from the rightwing extremist Fundamentalist Christian wing of the Tea Party (whose members have taken over most of the leadership positions in many states' local, county/parish, and state Republican Parties).


 
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