GeekGold Bonus for All Supporters at year's end: 1000!
9,459 Supporters
$15 min for supporter badge & GeekGold bonus
17 Days Left

Support:

Recommend
9 
 Thumb up
 Hide
18 Posts

Twilight Struggle» Forums » General

Subject: Just Set a New PR for Being Stuck in Bear Trap rss

Your Tags: Add tags
Popular Tags: [View All]
Michael Valentine

Texas
msg tools
mb
Opponent played Bear Trap on the headline. I missed 6 rolls and skipped the seventh with no eligible discard. Missed the first roll on the next turn before getting out of the trap. Seven missed rolls total, one skipped round, and one made roll; nine action rounds lost in total. To make matters worse, I didn't have a single USA card the turn I spent in the trap. shake

1/3^7 = 1/2,187. I hate Bear Trap.
14 
 Thumb up
0.02
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Shawn Garbett
United States
Nashville
Tennessee
flag msg tools
designer
badge
Will Provide Statistics for Data
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
MichaelVal wrote:
1/3^7 = 1/2,187. I hate Bear Trap.


That's the odds of failing exactly 7 times, p=0.0004572474.

Another viewpoint is odds of being still trapped on a given turn. You had a 1 in 3 chance on 1st turn of escaping. The odds of escaping by the first or second round are 1/3 + 2/3 *(1/3) = 0.555... This creates a negative binomial distribution of r=1. So the odds of being trapped for any given number of turns are as follows:



> 1-pnbinom(0:15, 1, 1/3)
[1] 0.666666667 0.444444444 0.296296296 0.197530864 0.131687243
[6] 0.087791495 0.058527663 0.039018442 0.026012295 0.017341530
[11] 0.011561020 0.007707347 0.005138231 0.003425487 0.002283658
[16] 0.001522439


So there's a 0.059 chance of still being Bear Trapped by turn 7, or pretty close to 1 in 20! It's a crit fail in D&D.

 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Alex Drazen
United States
Massachusetts
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
CyberGarp wrote:
MichaelVal wrote:
1/3^7 = 1/2,187. I hate Bear Trap.


That's the odds of failing exactly 7 times, p=0.0004572474.

Another viewpoint is odds of being still trapped on a given turn. You had a 1 in 3 chance on 1st turn of escaping. The odds of escaping by the first or second round are 1/3 + 2/3 *(1/3) = 0.555... This creates a negative binomial distribution of r=1. So the odds of being trapped for any given number of turns are as follows:


> 1-pnbinom(0:15, 1, 1/3)
[1] 0.666666667 0.444444444 0.296296296 0.197530864 0.131687243
[6] 0.087791495 0.058527663 0.039018442 0.026012295 0.017341530
[11] 0.011561020 0.007707347 0.005138231 0.003425487 0.002283658
[16] 0.001522439


So there's a 0.059 chance of still being Bear Trapped by turn 7, or pretty close to 1 in 20! It's a crit fail in D&D.



Don't you have a 2/3 chance of escaping on the first roll? It's a roll of 1-4 that gets you out.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Shawn Garbett
United States
Nashville
Tennessee
flag msg tools
designer
badge
Will Provide Statistics for Data
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
alexdrazen wrote:

Don't you have a 2/3 chance of escaping on the first roll? It's a roll of 1-4 that gets you out.

DOH! Got it backward. Teach me to finish coffee before posting.

Works out to the original.


> 100*(1-pnbinom(0:15, 1, 2/3))
[1] 3.333333e+01 1.111111e+01 3.703704e+00 1.234568e+00 4.115226e-01
[6] 1.371742e-01 4.572474e-02 1.524158e-02 5.080526e-03 1.693509e-03
[11] 5.645029e-04 1.881676e-04 6.272255e-05 2.090752e-05 6.969172e-06
[16] 2.323057e-06
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Steven Albano
United States
Bloomfield
NJ
flag msg tools
badge
mbmbmbmbmb
This is why I don't like this card.

It's really uncontrolled game altering randomness seems to really go against the tight design of the game.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Valery Prikhodko
Belarus
Gomel
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
You need to learn to roll better.
8 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Alex
Canada
Quebec
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
colormage1 wrote:
This is why I don't like this card.

It's really uncontrolled game altering randomness seems to really go against the tight design of the game.


Twilight Struggle is all about risk assessement.
66% chances of spending 3 ops to see your opponent discard one of your event : Not so good.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Steven Albano
United States
Bloomfield
NJ
flag msg tools
badge
mbmbmbmbmb
Oh, I know it could do nothing.

And I know the game is about risk assessment. But I just don't like that there's a card that could literally and very randomly shut your opponent out of the game and there's nothing the player on the receiving end can do about it.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
King in Green
Japan
flag msg tools
mb
And the more games you play of TS, the more likely this is to happen to you dear reader...

One can go two ways on this, the unfairness of the card's mechanics or the slim hope it always gives that no matter how badly you are losing there's always a slim hope that your opponent will do a Michael.

It was redesigned for Freedom 1989 to add the card ops but my opponent still missed 5 rolls first game If I were redesigning the cards I imagine that you could pay your way out by allowing your opponent to remove/add influence in Asia. At least that way you'd have a choice if you wanted to suffer or make the roll.
4 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Tod Andrew
Australia
Wollongong
NSW
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
colormage1 wrote:
This is why I don't like this card.

It's really uncontrolled game altering randomness seems to really go against the tight design of the game.


I'd prefer that the requirement was to simply discard any non-scoring card, rather than having to be 2 or more ops. At least then players would not be left holding 1 op cards with nothing to do but pass.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Snooze Fest
United States
Hillsborough
North Carolina
flag msg tools
badge
We love our pups!! Misu, RIP 28 Nov 2010. Tikka, RIP 11 Aug 2011.
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Yeah, I love the game but this is one of those things that still if pretty annoying! I kind of wish you got a +1 to your die roll after every failure or two!
3 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Kristofer Östen Karlsson
msg tools
mbmbmbmb
In 1989 Dawn Of Freedom, like Harding said, it takes op strength into account. But there you have to roll a total of six or more (adding the value of the card). Which means that discarding a 2op card only gives you a 1/2 of getting out. And, there is only one such event, not one for each side.
They're both brutal when they're brutal.

(Edited for better basic arithmetics)
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Max DuBoff
United States
New Brunswick
New Jersey
flag msg tools
"My name is Ozymandias, king of kings: / Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!"
badge
Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present.
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
colormage1 wrote:
This is why I don't like this card.

It's really uncontrolled game altering randomness seems to really go against the tight design of the game.


This is only one of many, many luck elements in TS. Not sure what you mean by tight, but TS is only mostly skill-based.
3 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Shawn Garbett
United States
Nashville
Tennessee
flag msg tools
designer
badge
Will Provide Statistics for Data
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
On the plus side, one could say it adds to the nail biting tension.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Steven Albano
United States
Bloomfield
NJ
flag msg tools
badge
mbmbmbmbmb
MD1616 wrote:
This is only one of many, many luck elements in TS. Not sure what you mean by tight, but TS is only mostly skill-based.


I don't know. I'd say the better play is going to win almost all the time. You can have pretty terrible Coup attempts for six turns in a row and still come back.

But I'm talking about this specific card, where you can play it and your opponent can't do anything. I don't like the vast swinginess of one card.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
DominiGeek
Dominican Republic
Santo Domingo
D.N.
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmb
snoozefest wrote:
Yeah, I love the game but this is one of those things that still if pretty annoying! I kind of wish you got a +1 to your die roll after every failure or two!


I like this idea, I think I´ve made comments about it. By expanding the range of a successful roll by 1 after each failed die roll, the card could even start the range of the trap/quagmire at 1-3, increasing the odds of the trap lasting at least 2 turns, in exchange for not lasting more than 4 turns (if the player has eligible cards)
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Shawn Garbett
United States
Nashville
Tennessee
flag msg tools
designer
badge
Will Provide Statistics for Data
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
rubendario5 wrote:
snoozefest wrote:
Yeah, I love the game but this is one of those things that still if pretty annoying! I kind of wish you got a +1 to your die roll after every failure or two!


I like this idea, I think I´ve made comments about it. By expanding the range of a successful roll by 1 after each failed die roll, the card could even start the range of the trap/quagmire at 1-3, increasing the odds of the trap lasting at least 2 turns, in exchange for not lasting more than 4 turns (if the player has eligible cards)


The problem with this is the odds for 1 to 4 are, 50%, 33%, 14%, 3%. The median roll will be one turn! 83% of the time it will last 2 turns. Not much of a quagmire.

If you reduce initial roll to 1-2 and give a +1 bonus for every previous roll. This gives a spread of 33%, 33%, 22%, 9%, 2%. Median time is 2 turns with 89% in the range 1-3.

Warning: I haven't finished my coffee. I'll check these numbers later.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Noah B
Canada
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmb
Remember that there's Quagmire to (hopefully) balance things out
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Front Page | Welcome | Contact | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertise | Support BGG | Feeds RSS
Geekdo, BoardGameGeek, the Geekdo logo, and the BoardGameGeek logo are trademarks of BoardGameGeek, LLC.