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Horse Fever» Forums » General

Subject: An analysis of probabilities in horse fever rss

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Jonathan Coveney
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I can't guarantee there are no bugs, but I threw together a quick script to simulate the racing portion of the game

The code: https://github.com/jcoveney/horse_fever
Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Le1HkXrYtbkg2GGOX4kW...

There is certainly more analysis that could be done (taking suggestion!), the most pressing would be a) incorporating some value for VPs (any ideas? could be variable based on the auctions at the end...) and b) the cost of things (like the $200 per action card). The github issues have various ideas, feel free to comment there or here with any suggestions.

Looking at it another way, I want to figure out a good example of when it doesn't just make the most sense to make a win/show double bet on the 1:2, VP wise. Obviously early on you need money to be able to survive later on, so there's that...but people are also going to be doing shit to your horse if you're betting too much on it, so I am trying to think of a quantitative way to capture that.
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