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Subject: Is 2015 Franklin Gutierrez Skewed Or Is It a Die-Rolling Game rss

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Brian Mc Cabe
United States
Arizona
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In the past 18 days, 17 games, Franklin Gutierrez has 33 at bats (not plate appearance). In that span he has 12 hits, a .275 average, not far from his recorded BA of .291.

Of his twelve hits, though, nine of them have been home runs, eight of which have come off the batter's card, a rate of 3.67. Projected over his 170 recorded at bats, this would equate to forty-five HRs, or, over 600 at bats, 150+.

He has not played in two of those seventeen games, pinch hit three times (1/2 with a walk) and pinch run once and stayed in the game, going 1/2 with a tenth-inning walk-off HR.

In one game, he went 2-6, with two HRs. Most of his own-card HRs come on a white die "two", which I managed to roll four times in the six at bats. One of those would have been a HR, too, but the split result was high, for a fly out.

I've reached the point I don't even want to use him at all.

Has anyone else experienced these anomalies? Or is he just so out of whack with reality that SOM made a mistake? He did have sixteen HRs in those 170 ABs, but that isn't anywhere near one hundred fifty HRs. More like the 45 he's going to get if I manage to give him one hundred seventy Abs.

Brian
 
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Darrell Hanning
United States
Jacksonville
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apatheticexecutioner wrote:
In the past 18 days, 17 games, Franklin Gutierrez has 33 at bats (not plate appearance). In that span he has 12 hits, a .275 average, not far from his recorded BA of .291.

Of his twelve hits, though, nine of them have been home runs, eight of which have come off the batter's card, a rate of 3.67. Projected over his 170 recorded at bats, this would equate to forty-five HRs, or, over 600 at bats, 150+.

He has not played in two of those seventeen games, pinch hit three times (1/2 with a walk) and pinch run once and stayed in the game, going 1/2 with a tenth-inning walk-off HR.

In one game, he went 2-6, with two HRs. Most of his own-card HRs come on a white die "two", which I managed to roll four times in the six at bats. One of those would have been a HR, too, but the split result was high, for a fly out.

I've reached the point I don't even want to use him at all.

Has anyone else experienced these anomalies? Or is he just so out of whack with reality that SOM made a mistake? He did have sixteen HRs in those 170 ABs, but that isn't anywhere near one hundred fifty HRs. More like the 45 he's going to get if I manage to give him one hundred seventy Abs.

Brian

Hey, hitters go on tears, even in SOM. He might go zero-for-twenty his next six games.

Keep playing him.
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Rick Rodrick
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Portland
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Seventeen games is a small sample size. It is not surprising to see batters hit above their head for a small sample size game. Think how often the BA and HR for a playoff series will be quite different than a players season-long performance. Nevertheless, it is a dice game and quirky things will happen.


(Also, check his righty-lefty splits if you are playing the advance games. In the leagues I have been in, playing a batter at different split percentages- like playing a guy who played every day and stunk against rightys only against left handers- will skew his output pretty significantly.)

edits--making the grammar readable--oy!
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John Lee
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Agree with Rick and Darrel. The dice should even out in the long run. Let us know where his HR total is after he reaches his historical 171 AB's. BISHOP
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Randal Divinski
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Along with the quality and handedness of pitching face, the types of ballparks you are playing in are going to matter.

But if you are rolled "2" on a pair of six-sided dice one out of every 6 rolls instead of the statistical norm of 1 in 36 rolls, the cards are not going to fix that.
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Brian Mc Cabe
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randiv wrote:
Along with the quality and handedness of pitching face, the types of ballparks you are playing in are going to matter.

But if you are rolled "2" on a pair of six-sided dice one out of every 6 rolls instead of the statistical norm of 1 in 36 rolls, the cards are not going to fix that.

The roll of 2 was on the white die; but, what you say still holds true.
If I roll two four times out of six, instead of one, the cards aren't going to fix that, either.

Brian
 
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Brian Mc Cabe
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All good replies. Thanks, guys.

Brian
 
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