Jon Badolato
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Video at link

http://video.foxnews.com/v/5026555237001/fox-news-debuts-ele...

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Clinton will be the next Fuehrer.
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Christopher Seguin
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Interesting.

I disagree with a few assessments, but I am not a political science professor at University of Texas, so what the hell do I know.

1.) Michigan is not a "Lean Dem" - it should remain a "solid Dem".

2.) Wisconsin is not a "Lean Dem" - it should remain a "solid Dem" (sorry, BJ)

3.) Arizona is no longer a "Lean GOP" - it should be a "Toss Up" at best

4.) Missouri is no longer a "Lean GOP" - it should be a "Toss Up" at best

5.) Georgia is no longer a "Lean GOP" - it should be a "Toss Up" at best

There are others that are probably wrong as well, but those are the ones that jumped out at me the most.

By the way, the reason for the "drop down" of MI and WI from "Solid Dem" to "Lean Dem" that the show host gave as "a bunch of white people concerned about immigration and trade" is a bunch of crap! WTF, really?

BJ, what do you think? Is that a proper assessment of the leanings of the electorate in Wisconsin? Immigration and Trade? I don't know if I buy that, but, like I said, I could be wrong.

Thanks for the post, Jon.
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Josh
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Calling PA a toss up is wildly generous to the GOP. It should be at least lean dem if not solid Dem.
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Jon Badolato
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Yeah, PA was one that stuck out in my mind when viewing their video. Obama won it 52 to 48 % in 2012. Most rural counties voted Romney but the urban heavily populated areas voted Obama. I can't see Clinton losing any of those urban areas to Trump given his track record with minorities and women. I would at worse list PA as a lean democrat state rather than a toss up as they have done.
 
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chrisnd wrote:
Interesting.

I disagree with a few assessments, but I am not a political science professor at University of Texas, so what the hell do I know.

1.) Michigan is not a "Lean Dem" - it should remain a "solid Dem".

2.) Wisconsin is not a "Lean Dem" - it should remain a "solid Dem" (sorry, BJ)

3.) Arizona is no longer a "Lean GOP" - it should be a "Toss Up" at best

4.) Missouri is no longer a "Lean GOP" - it should be a "Toss Up" at best

5.) Georgia is no longer a "Lean GOP" - it should be a "Toss Up" at best

There are others that are probably wrong as well, but those are the ones that jumped out at me the most.

By the way, the reason for the "drop down" of MI and WI from "Solid Dem" to "Lean Dem" that the show host gave as "a bunch of white people concerned about immigration and trade" is a bunch of crap! WTF, really?

BJ, what do you think? Is that a proper assessment of the leanings of the electorate in Wisconsin? Immigration and Trade? I don't know if I buy that, but, like I said, I could be wrong.

Thanks for the post, Jon.


Fox News is served by presenting skewed poll results to give viewers the sense that a contest they could win is on the way. This both helps to elect Republicans by creating momentum, but primarily just keeps viewers engaged by slanting their way.

For more examples, see liberal networks.
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Snoo Py
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Here are the current numbers for the electoral vote:
Clinton 342
Trump 195
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
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Chief Slovenly
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What do I think?

I think:
- Hillary wins. I think PA actually goes Trump, but it's not enough to overcome Hillary winning FL, NC, CO, NM, and many of the other tossups. PA I think will be the outlier.
- As a consequence, the Senate will be in Democratic hands.
- Trump won't be able to help himself. There is always a deeper floor to him. It's very early yet, but I think trends will continue: the GOP elite will fail (again) to leash him, and he'll continue to say dangerous things that rile up crowds but really piss off everybody else.

The more interesting questions (to me) are:

- Do Democrats take the House? That's a longshot, but Trump is making it certainly possible. Republicans, at least off the record, are starting to talk in apocalyptic terms about this.
- Does Dump Trump succeed? I think that's also a longshot, given the power each party apparatus has, but I'm not sure Trump has the money or the will to continue this thing if a serious challenge gets made. In which case, I think the person who has the most logical case to replace Trump on the ticket is Ted Cruz -- who, conveniently for the gods of comedy, already has his running mate picked.

For the republic, I hope #NeverTrump is successful.
As a liberal, well... watch the bus crash, I guess.

Edit: after looking at this, I conclude that I'm high. With a map like this, Hillary can go campaign on offense in AZ and NC. Trump can continue to spout like a racist uncle at a picnic.
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News networks desperately want a horse race so that ratings will boom rather than just increase. They're being generous toward Trump in order to facilitate that narrative.

That having been said, here are some points to ponder:

- Trump could certainly have a shot at Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. If he holds the "lean Republican" states and takes those as well as Florida or North Carolina, he's in. There are other paths available, but if he succeeds there then he's also likely succeeding in the aforementioned states and is on his way to an easy victory.

- Hillary Clinton is a terrible campaigner who excites about as much enthusiasm as your grandmother passing around slices of fruit cake at the family Christmas party. She's taken nearly the entire primary season to put away Bernie fucking Sanders, a self-avowed socialist and angry old man who wasn't even a Democrat until last year. She also lost...ahem...the Michigan and Wisconsin primaries.

- The FBI investigation is over, but it did not exonerate Clinton. She won't be indicted while running for president, but the bureau's report raises serious questions about her judgement, temperament, and penchant for playing fast and loose with the rules and the truth. This is finally the exploitable scandal that conservatives have been looking for. It's not going away.

- Of course, the X Factor is Trump himself. He's fully capable of sinking his own campaign without any outside help. He's also energized a portion of the electorate which hadn't done a lot of voting recently. The pundits marked them down as unreliable support which wouldn't show up at the polls. They were wrong.

- One has to wonder how much of the current presidential race modeling is making the same potentially false assumptions. If the pundits are as wrong in November as they were throughout the primaries then we could be in for a severe election night shock. This was, of course, the Romney narrative in 2012, and it turned out to be false. Will it be false in 2016? I'm much less sure this time.

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jonb wrote:


I think they've been spending too much time in Colorado.

Interesting fun fact. Candidate Johnson said he has had legal pot edibles recently. And that he would not consume them while president. On a recent Bill Maher show. That's actually kinda cool.
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SPIGuy wrote:
News networks desperately want a horse race so that ratings will boom rather than just increase. They're being generous toward Trump in order to facilitate that narrative.

That having been said, here are some points to ponder:

- Trump could certainly have a shot at Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. If he holds the "lean Republican" states and takes those as well as Florida or North Carolina, he's in. There are other paths available, but if he succeeds there then he's also likely succeeding in the aforementioned states and is on his way to an easy victory.

- Hillary Clinton is a terrible campaigner who excites about as much enthusiasm as your grandmother passing around slices of fruit cake at the family Christmas party. She's taken nearly the entire primary season to put away Bernie fucking Sanders, a self-avowed socialist and angry old man who wasn't even a Democrat until last year. She also lost...ahem...the Michigan and Wisconsin primaries.

- The FBI investigation is over, but it did not exonerate Clinton. She won't be indicted while running for president, but the bureau's report raises serious questions about her judgement, temperament, and penchant for playing fast and loose with the rules and the truth. This is finally the exploitable scandal that conservatives have been looking for. It's not going away.

- Of course, the X Factor is Trump himself. He's fully capable of sinking his own campaign without any outside help. He's also energized a portion of the electorate which hadn't done a lot of voting recently. The pundits marked them down as unreliable support which wouldn't show up at the polls. They were wrong.

- One has to wonder how much of the current presidential race modeling is making the same potentially false assumptions. If the pundits are as wrong in November as they were throughout the primaries then we could be in for a severe election night shock. This was, of course, the Romney narrative in 2012, and it turned out to be false. Will it be false in 2016? I'm much less sure this time.



Trump can't defeat math. The minority population has grown since 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012. He's doing only about as well with whites as Romney did, and much worse with minorities. For every working class white he picks up he loses a suburban white soccer mom. He's hopeless.

Short of a huge scandal or an indictment, Clinton has this in the bag. But both of those are possible, which is the only reason it's not a foregone conclusion.
 
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Jon Badolato
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maxo-texas wrote:
jonb wrote:


I think they've been spending too much time in Colorado.

Interesting fun fact. Candidate Johnson said he has had legal pot edibles recently. And that he would not consume them while president. On a recent Bill Maher show. That's actually kinda cool.


The pot edibles are what probably led him to the conclusion that him being president was even remotely a possibility !
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Mac Mcleod
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jonb wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:
jonb wrote:


I think they've been spending too much time in Colorado.

Interesting fun fact. Candidate Johnson said he has had legal pot edibles recently. And that he would not consume them while president. On a recent Bill Maher show. That's actually kinda cool.


The pot edibles are what probably led him to the conclusion that him being president was even remotely a possibility !


I think he'd make a decent president. He's probably the most charismatic and most normal libertarian candidate in years.
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Quote:
Here are the current numbers for the electoral vote:
Clinton 342
Trump 195
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/


Gary Johnson 0.6 electoral votes.

I can't wait to see how this happens...
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If everyone who was going to hold their nose and vote trump instead voted for gary johnson, it would actually shake things up.

Once it's clear Trump is going to lose all the electoral votes in their state anyway, Trump voters should vote for Gary Johnson.

Edit... (I added this after the first four thumbs...)

Once it's clear Hillary is going to lose all the electoral votes in their state anyway, Hillary voters should vote for Gary Johnson.
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Are we going to get a repeat of Fox's 2012 election coverage where they had themselves so convinced that Romney would win (in a landslide) that they have on-air meltdowns on election night?
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chrisnd wrote:


3.) Arizona is no longer a "Lean GOP" - it should be a "Toss Up" at best

4.) Missouri is no longer a "Lean GOP" - it should be a "Toss Up" at best

5.) Georgia is no longer a "Lean GOP" - it should be a "Toss Up" at best



I think AZ, MO, and GA are all "Lean GOP" (or Solid GOP) in any 2016 presidential election in which a self-congratulatory womanizing bankruptcy-declaring dubiously-coiffed reality-TV-star overtly racist rich boy real estate developer isn't the Republican nominee.
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Christopher Seguin
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Kumitedad wrote:
chrisnd wrote:
Interesting.

I disagree with a few assessments, but I am not a political science professor at University of Texas, so what the hell do I know.

1.) Michigan is not a "Lean Dem" - it should remain a "solid Dem".

2.) Wisconsin is not a "Lean Dem" - it should remain a "solid Dem" (sorry, BJ)

3.) Arizona is no longer a "Lean GOP" - it should be a "Toss Up" at best

4.) Missouri is no longer a "Lean GOP" - it should be a "Toss Up" at best

5.) Georgia is no longer a "Lean GOP" - it should be a "Toss Up" at best

There are others that are probably wrong as well, but those are the ones that jumped out at me the most.

By the way, the reason for the "drop down" of MI and WI from "Solid Dem" to "Lean Dem" that the show host gave as "a bunch of white people concerned about immigration and trade" is a bunch of crap! WTF, really?

BJ, what do you think? Is that a proper assessment of the leanings of the electorate in Wisconsin? Immigration and Trade? I don't know if I buy that, but, like I said, I could be wrong.

Thanks for the post, Jon.


Right now Realclearpolitics averages of the polls has Hillary up by .5% is AZ, which is a toss up by any definition. Just where is Fox getting this horseshit analysis from anyway


That's what I am saying (that Fox if full of horseshit). If Hillary is up by .5%, how can AZ still be "leaning GOP" and not "Toss Up"? Unless typical Trump supporters aren't being included in the Realclearpolitics polls, the numbers are pointing towards a "Toss Up" and not a "Lean".

As Terwox said, it's a "ratings" thing. Giving a little bump to Trump that isn't actually there gives people the false impression that they should watch Fox for confirmation bias confirmation.
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Virginia, new Hampshire and Pennsylvania should be lean Democrat. There's a lot of unicorns and rainbows in their interpretation.
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Josh
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http://www.cnn.com/election/interactive-electoral-college-ma...

You can go here for the CNN electoral map. What do folks think of that one?
 
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Trump will have to almost run the table in the toss-up column, not likely.
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maxo-texas wrote:
If everyone who was going to hold their nose and vote trump instead voted for gary johnson, it would actually shake things up.

Once it's clear Trump is going to lose all the electoral votes in their state anyway, Trump voters should vote for Gary Johnson.


There are a significant number of people who prefer Trump to Johnson. There just aren't many on RSP!
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Mac Mcleod
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Terwox wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:
If everyone who was going to hold their nose and vote trump instead voted for gary johnson, it would actually shake things up.

Once it's clear Trump is going to lose all the electoral votes in their state anyway, Trump voters should vote for Gary Johnson.


There are a significant number of people who prefer Trump to Johnson. There just aren't many on RSP!


I also think once it's clear Hillary is going to lose all the electoral votes in their state anyway, Hillary voters should vote for Gary Johnson.
 
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maxo-texas wrote:
Terwox wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:
If everyone who was going to hold their nose and vote trump instead voted for gary johnson, it would actually shake things up.

Once it's clear Trump is going to lose all the electoral votes in their state anyway, Trump voters should vote for Gary Johnson.


There are a significant number of people who prefer Trump to Johnson. There just aren't many on RSP!


I also think once it's clear Hillary is going to lose all the electoral votes in their state anyway, Hillary voters should vote for Gary Johnson.


Some (not me) will prefer Stein. But yeah, I'm probably going to do just that (for Johnson) -- I'd rather a third party I don't terribly agree with is in the race rather than the crap we have currently.
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edgerunner76 wrote:
Are we going to get a repeat of Fox's 2012 election coverage where they had themselves so convinced that Romney would win (in a landslide) that they have on-air meltdowns on election night?


One can only hope.

That was quality entertainment.
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