Recommend
 
 Thumb up
 Hide
14 Posts

Axis & Allies Naval Miniatures: War at Sea» Forums » Variants

Subject: Buckets of dice rss

Your Tags: Add tags
Popular Tags: [View All]
Joe Donnelly
Canada
Unspecified
BC
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
I find rolling up to 18 dice for a single broadside to be a bit tedious. Has anyone worked out any shortcut methods that keep the same probabilities?

How about halving the number of dice (round down) but doubling the number of hits? Would that unduly skew the distribution of results?
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Seth Owen
United States
Norwich
Connecticut
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Rolling dice is fun.
I don't think any alternative is going to keep the same probabilities. In fact, rolling fewer dice will tend to lead to more extreme results because there will be less of an evening out effect.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Brian Morris
United States
Raytown
Missouri
flag msg tools
2nd, 6th and 7th Wisconsin, 19th Indiana, 24th Michigan
badge
24th Michigan Monument Gettysburg Pa
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
I agree. The fewer dice you roll the more extreme your results will be. Anyway, rolling a truck full of dice is fun.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Brent Lloyd
United States
League City
Texas
flag msg tools
Canadian Game Design Award: http://www.fallcon.com/design
badge
Canadian Game Design Award: http://www.fallcon.com/design
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
I also agree. The more dice you roll the better the chances that the bell curve will occur. I personally like the bell curve with occasional swings to each end, makes for exciting changes in fate. If I "have" to roll dice in a game, give me a bucket full.

Peace
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Greg Low
United States
Mansfield
Massachusetts
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Sunray11 wrote:
I find rolling up to 18 dice for a single broadside to be a bit tedious.


That's funny. When you roll 18 dice, usually something is sinking very soon. It isn't a roll you have to make too many times in a single game.

You do realize that you can just roll three batches of six dice and stop rolling when the target blows up?

-Greg
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Li'l Ronnie Post
United States
Seattle
Washington
flag msg tools
Avatar
Sunray11 wrote:
I find rolling up to 18 dice for a single broadside to be a bit tedious. Has anyone worked out any shortcut methods that keep the same probabilities?

How about halving the number of dice (round down) but doubling the number of hits? Would that unduly skew the distribution of results?

No, you can't do it that way - but you CAN change to percentile dice. I posted a basic CRT for the bae A&A minis set some time back, and I think someone has put together an improved version since. Personally, I'd much rather roll two (or three) percentile dice and consult a CRT than repeatedly roll mass quantities of d6 - but to each their own!

I keep meaning to go back and really wrap up that project with the newer abilities, etc - but the prospect of having to wrap my mind around the math again from a cold start is daunting and I keep finding other projects that come first...
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Li'l Ronnie Post
United States
Seattle
Washington
flag msg tools
Avatar
Thunder wrote:
I also agree. The more dice you roll the better the chances that the bell curve will occur. I personally like the bell curve with occasional swings to each end, makes for exciting changes in fate.

I'm not really a stats guy, so I may be the wrong person to explain this, but actually the bell curve "occurs" on every roll no matter what the results are - it's only a description of the distribution of possible outcomes.

Getting a statistically improbable result (the ends of that bell curve) will happen regardless of how many dice you roll - rolling more or less dice does not impact the rate at which it occurs, but rather only what constitutes "improbable".

Quote:
If I "have" to roll dice in a game, give me a bucket full.

It can be fun if it only happens once in a while, but if I'm constantly rolling a big handful, it's just gets a bit old to me after a while. Nothing wrong with it at all if it doesn't bother you, though!
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Joe Donnelly
Canada
Unspecified
BC
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Quote:
I posted a basic CRT for the bae A&A minis set some time back, and I think someone has put together an improved version since. Personally, I'd much rather roll two (or three) percentile dice and consult a CRT than repeatedly roll mass quantities of d6 - but to each their own!


Thanks for actually addressing my concerns. It was, in fact, your percentile table for the land game that prompted me to ask the question. Something similar, but including the double hits for sixes, would be the sort of thing I'm after. (I guess it would also have to incorporate decreased chances for crippled ships.)
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Li'l Ronnie Post
United States
Seattle
Washington
flag msg tools
Avatar
Sunray11 wrote:
Thanks for actually addressing my concerns. It was, in fact, your percentile table for the land game that prompted me to ask the question. Something similar, but including the double hits for sixes, would be the sort of thing I'm after. (I guess it would also have to incorporate decreased chances for crippled ships.)

Sure - that's doable. It's only the modifications that make it difficult (well, for me anyhow) - but it should still be feasible.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Joe Donnelly
Canada
Unspecified
BC
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Out of curiosity, I ran some tests using on-line dice roll simulators. Halving the dice and doubling the hits does seem to approximate the number of hits obtained by rolling the full number of dice. In the absence of a statistical argument to the contrary, I decided to trust the empirical evidence.

I played a game tonight using the halving/doubling technique for all rolls of more than 8 dice. It seemed to work okay, and was certainly a lot easier.

For those who like rolling all the dice all the time: play on! I'm not trying to dissuade you.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Brian Morris
United States
Raytown
Missouri
flag msg tools
2nd, 6th and 7th Wisconsin, 19th Indiana, 24th Michigan
badge
24th Michigan Monument Gettysburg Pa
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Let's put it this way. What are the odds of you rolling four 6's on eight dice? Now what are the odds of rolling two 6's on four dice? By halving the dice you are in effect making more extreme rolls such as rolling four 6's more common.

Now if you are comfortable with that that is fine but just because your over all average will be the same doesn't means the results will be. What you are doing is flattening the bell curve and getting more extreme results more often.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Clark
United States
Unspecified
Texas
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmb
Problem? What problem? :-)

My 6-year-old son gets a grin on his face a mile wide everytime he rolls 18 dice for the Yamato. He can barely pick up all the dice. I think it's his favorite (and mine too) part of the game with the possible exception of the subsequent "glub, glub" sounds he makes as my ship sinks.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Greg Low
United States
Mansfield
Massachusetts
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Sunray11 wrote:
Halving the dice and doubling the hits does seem to approximate the number of hits obtained by rolling the full number of dice. In the absence of a statistical argument to the contrary, I decided to trust the empirical evidence.


Statistically this is a good approximation because the mean of the two techniques is the same. The standard deviation, however, has changed.

The result (as pointed out by others) is a greater frequency of results away from the mean.

Try this as an experiment. Quarter the number of dice and multipy by four. If you do an adequate number of trials, you should find that the mean still hasn't changed much, but the results will likely start to get too far away from the mean for you to be satisfied with the results.

What would this experiment mean to the game? With a single six counting as hitting an eight armor, you'll find swarms of destroyers are suddenly far too effective!

As long as you only use this technique only when there are 12 or more dice involved, I suspect it works well, but it really breaks down if applied too liberaly.

-Greg
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Joe Donnelly
Canada
Unspecified
BC
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
I see your point, and I don't disagree with the math. However, I'm not sure that the change in distribution of scores is meaningful in this case.

Combat resolution in AAWAS hangs on the concept that you either have enough hits to overcome the armor value, or you don't. One might argue that how far your scores fall on either side of that line is irrelevant (setting aside the "vital armor" mechanism, which we look at next).

The only significant effect of the shortcut would seem to be a slight increase in the chance of defeating vital armor, which will usually depend upon a score at the upper end of the distribution. The point of rounding down the number of dice was to help control for this.

Even so, I think that the residual skew to the distribution just adds a bit of excitement and suspense to the game, and as I said, I'm only applying it to the "fistfulls" of dice anyway.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Front Page | Welcome | Contact | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertise | Support BGG | Feeds RSS
Geekdo, BoardGameGeek, the Geekdo logo, and the BoardGameGeek logo are trademarks of BoardGameGeek, LLC.