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Subject: Blundering Through, Summer '36 rss

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Will Pearson
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Draws:

Public #86 Greece: 0

Germany #124 One Western Europe: 1
Italy #105 Italian Support -1
Britain #16 Covert Ops +1 Level
France #39 French Support -1
Russia #38 Income -1

EC: -1.
EAI: +2 (1CW+RE).

Purge: Military (AAF), purge level 5->6.
Garrison: Need 8 Siberia + 2 BOP + 2 EAI + 4 Influence (1 in each Minor) = 16. Have 13 units + 1 research = 14.

Garrison requirement not met, -1 Support.

1 German INF becomes available to build.

Income:


Germany Italy Britain France Russia

Support 1 -1 1 1 -4
CF 10 4 6 4 10
EC -1 -1 -1 -1 0
RE 0 0 0 0 -1
TP 4 1 1 2 0
Maint. -3 -3 0 -3 -8
Draw 2 1 2 3 3

Net: 13 1 9 6 0

Carry: 0 0 0 4 0

Final: 13 1 9 10 0



Mobilisations:

Germany mobilises an idle factory for 7, INF Win '36, AAF Sum '37, ARM Win '37. Gains +1 Support.

Britain mobilises a civilian factory for 7, 2 AAF Sum '37, ARM Win '37. gains +1 Support.

France mobilises a civilian factory for 7, AAF Sum '37, ARM Win '37.

Research:

Germany: Rockets (3-4), CounterInt (1-2), Armour (5-6), Strat. Bomb (0-1).
Italy: BB Design (5-6).
Britain (AC1): Espionage (1-2), Light Ships (1-2), BB Design (4-5), ASW Research (1-2). RE: CovOPs (1-3)
France: Maginot (5-6).
Russia: CovOps (1-2), Spec. Units (1-2).

German Armor result: +1 BoP.
Italian BB result: +1 BoP, can make BB4.
French Maginot result: +1 Support.

Shipbuilding:

Germany: AC2 - Continue 2 BC3 to Sum/2.
Italy: AC1 - Launch BB3, Defer BB3 to Fall/3.
France: AC1(Ship) - Lay down BB3.

Builds:

Germany: AC2 - INF.

BoP: Armor +1 -> +2, Infantry still +1, Air still 0, Naval -1 -> +1. Total +4.

Russian Garrison: Non-naval BoP increased by 1, adds 1 RG requirement (now 3 short).

Diplomacy:

Germany: ACC1 Rumania, DC1 Spain, MC1 Rhineland, CW Poland.
Italy: None.
Russia: None.
Britain: DC1 Norway, DC1 Sweden.
France: DC1 Rhineland, DC1 Poland.
Germany: DC1 Rhineland, RE: +1 Bel/Lux.
Italy: None.

Diplomacy Results:

Rumania 3-4 Germany
Poland No Change
Norway 2-3 Britain (Trade)
Sweden 1-2 Britain
Rhineland 0-1 Germany
Bel/Lux 3-2 France (Lose Trade)

Greece CW: 0->1

Civil War Results:

Axis intervention level: 1(DC) = 1

Russian intervention level: 1(Gov't) = 1

Intervention threshold draw = 5.

Result: No effect.

- CW counter not removed from play.

Crisis Phase:

Germany moves on Rhineland, neither Britain or France DoW (2/3 success chance) so aggression succeeds.

- Germany gains an idle factory, an AC1, and one extra RE next turn. Also allows West Wall research and MC placement in Bel/Lux.
- Russia adds Great Purge card to deck.

Expenditure:


Germany Italy Britain France Russia

Mobilisation 7 0 7 7 0
Research 0 0 1 0 0
Shipbuilding 2 1 0 1 0
Builds 2 0 0 0 0
Diplomacy 3 0 2 2 0
Other -1 0 -1 -1 0

Expenses: 13 1 9 9 0


Starting: 13 1 9 10 0


Carry: 0 0 0 1 0



Germany finally has an aggression succeed, and remilitarises the Rhineland only a turn behind schedule, if Italy hadn't drawn that -1 support Ethiopia would've worked as well. The civil war in Spain is likely to drag on as with only high counters left it'll take high commitments or REs to shift them. With Germany on the rise they can just throw Franco a tile a turn without worry, it's Russia that will feel the loss of income the longer it goes on.

This is where it could start to get interesting, France and Britain will want to ramp up mobilisation now Germany's starting to kick off, but it'll hit income for them.

Germany's issue is that while She's in a position to start hoovering up territory, every aggression is going to benefit the Allies via increased support and EAI.

Russia finally lost that deficit (for now) and with the Great Purge added can start to gain cohesion, but faces a rising garrison requirement.

Italy really needs to save to mobilise, but rushing for naval supremacy has helped Germany so far.

I suspect this will end up more of a WW1.5, earlier start, lower tech, but we'll see...
 
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Gary Goh
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deathninja wrote:
Draws:

Public #86 Greece: 0

Germany #124 One Western Europe: 1
Italy #105 Italian Support -1
Britain #16 Covert Ops +1 Level
France #39 French Support -1
Russia #87 Income -1


#87 was drawn last turn, so the card number needs updating.


deathninja wrote:
Income:


Germany Italy Britain France Russia

Support 1 -1 1 1 -4
CF 10 4 6 4 10
EC -1 -1 -1 -1 0
RE 0 0 0 0 -1
TP 4 1 1 2 0
Maint. -3 -3 0 -3 -8
Draw 2 1 2 3 3

Net: 13 3 9 6 0

Carry: 0 0 0 4 0

Final: 13 3 9 10 0



Should Italy's tile point level be 1 instead?


deathninja wrote:
Research:

Russia: CounterInt (1-2), Spec. Units (1-2).


Russia's intel point has to go to Covert Operations because that is the intel project with the least research progress to-date.


deathninja wrote:
Shipbuilding:

Germany: AC2 - Continue 2 BC3 to Sum/2.
Italy: AC1 - Launch BB3, AC1(Ship)+AC1 - Lay down BB4, Defer BB3 to Fall/3.
France: AC1(Ship) - Lay down BB3.


Italy should only have one tile point for the turn, so it cannot work on two ships.


deathninja wrote:
Builds:

BoP: Armor +1 -> +2, Infantry still +1, Air still 0, Naval -1 -> +1, +1 BB race. Total +5.


The BB race only begins when an alliance has launched or placed a minimum of two 4-factor ships more than the other, so the BOP ought to be at +4:

Rule book wrote:
19.93 4-FACTOR BATTLESHIPS: Once at least one major power has achieved a battleship design research result and started construction of a 4-factor battleship, the lead in battleship construction is then determined as follows:
- If one alliance has launched two or more 4-factor battleships than the other, that alliance has the lead.
- If neither alliance has launched two or more 4-factor battleships than the other, 4-factor battleships on the “2” row of each major power’s naval construction chart, regardless of the exact season (column), are included in the calculation.
- If neither alliance has launched or has on the “2” row two or more 4-factor battleships than the other, 4-factor battleships on the “3” row are included in the calculation. If the battleship race is still tied, then 4-factor battleships on the “4” row are included in the calculation.
- If neither alliance has the lead when all launched and building 4-factor battleships are taken into account, the battleship race is tied, and the +/-1 balance of power modifier is not applied.



deathninja wrote:
Diplomacy:

Germany: ACC1 Turkey, DC1 Spain, MC1 Rhineland, CW Poland.
Italy: None.
Russia: None.
Britain: DC1 Norway, DC1 Sweden.
France: DC1 Rhineland, DC1 Poland.
Germany: RE: +1 Bel/Lux.
Italy: None.


- The ACC must go to the least anti-Communist country (excluding countries which have an Allied flag in them), so that would either be Rumania or Finland which have three Axis flags each (Turkey has four Axis flags);
- The Axis ACC1 and CW counters are placed at no tile point cost, so Germany should have one tile point left for a DC1 placement in the final Axis DC placement segment;


deathninja wrote:
Diplomacy Results:

Rumania 3-4 Germany
Poland No Change
Norway 2-3 Britain (Trade)
Sweden 2-3 Britain
Rhineland 0-1 Germany
Bel/Lux 3-2 France (Lose Trade)


Combining the Rhineland results with the DC placements above, it looks as if Germany has placed a DC1 in the Rhineland during the initial DC placement, though that was not entered. Is this correct? This would also explain how Germany ends up with zero tile points at the end of the turn.

Sweden should be 1-2 Britain.


deathninja wrote:
Crisis Phase:

Germany moves on Rhineland, neither Britain or France can DoW (even on a 3 draw) so aggression succeeds.


With a BOP of +4 instead of +5, Germany now only has a 2/3 chance of success. That said, the Allies may rationally not contest the aggression due to the unfavourable odds, so probably no impact.


deathninja wrote:
Germany finally has an aggression succeed, and remilitarises the Rhineland only a turn behind schedule, if Italy hadn't drawn that -1 support Ethiopia would've worked as well.


With a BOP of +4, there is no way Italy can succeed against Ethiopia. Mussolini must have a crystal ball somewhere in his cupboard!
 
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Will Pearson
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Looking at my paper notes I played everything apart from the BB race right, I just read them wrong when copying up (again...)

Ratio wrote:
#87 was drawn last turn, so the card number needs updating.


#38


ratio wrote:
Should Italy's tile point level be 1 instead?


Yep.


deathninja wrote:
Russia's intel point has to go to Covert Operations because that is the intel project with the least research progress to-date.


Must have got mixed up (they sound similar), at any rate all 3 are level 2 now on my chart, so it's correct.


ratio wrote:
Italy should only have one tile point for the turn, so it cannot work on two ships.


Right, they won't lay down the BB4 then, just launch and defer.


Rule book wrote:
19.93 4-FACTOR BATTLESHIPS: Once at least one major power has achieved a battleship design research result and started construction of a 4-factor battleship, the lead in battleship construction is then determined as follows:
- If one alliance has launched two or more 4-factor battleships than the other, that alliance has the lead.
- If neither alliance has launched two or more 4-factor battleships than the other, 4-factor battleships on the “2” row of each major power’s naval construction chart, regardless of the exact season (column), are included in the calculation.
- If neither alliance has launched or has on the “2” row two or more 4-factor battleships than the other, 4-factor battleships on the “3” row are included in the calculation. If the battleship race is still tied, then 4-factor battleships on the “4” row are included in the calculation.
- If neither alliance has the lead when all launched and building 4-factor battleships are taken into account, the battleship race is tied, and the +/-1 balance of power modifier is not applied.


Missed the first line about there needing to be a margin of two, not one.


ratio wrote:
Diplomacy stuff


Again it's a copy error, ACC was in Rumania, and an extra DC1 was placed in the Rhineland in the second Axis phase.

ratio wrote:
With a BOP of +4 instead of +5, Germany now only has a 2/3 chance of success. That said, the Allies may rationally not contest the aggression due to the unfavourable odds, so probably no impact.


They still didn't, when it's 2/3 I coin flip for both parties.


ratio wrote:
Mussolini must have a crystal ball somewhere in his cupboard!


Presumably Laval never helped him out in this timeline, plus Benito's been blowing all his resources on ships rather than mobilising.

-----------------------------------------------
Got to the root of the cock-up - Halfway through writing up yesterday I had to deal with a hamster-related incident, and the page timed out by the time I'd sorted Genghis out. Copy-pasted a lot the second time around.
 
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