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Subject: The UpShot's Paths of Glory tool rss

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J
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This is really neat:



http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-...

It shows that if Hillary wins Florida, Trump has only one path to victory: win all the other toss-ups.
 
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Junior McSpiffy
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I'm rooting for a tie and a sane legislator naming Gary Johnson as president.
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Josh
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GameCrossing wrote:
I'm rooting for a tie and a sane legislator naming Gary Johnson as president.


So, betting on 00 while playing Poker?
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William Boykin
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But how can I get the US into play early if the Germans dont play the Unrestricted Sub Warfare card?

Darilian
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Alexandre P.
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jmilum wrote:
It shows that if Hillary wins Florida, Trump has only one path to victory: win all the other toss-ups.


Could you explain the logic of a "path" like this ?
All the elections take place at the same time and all the results are revealed at the same times so what is the idea behind this chart which make things look like the events are successive ?
 
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Oldies but Goodies ... Avalon Hill and
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MWAHAHAHAHA! I'm holding this until after the election.

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Bojan Ramadanovic
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Xahendir wrote:
jmilum wrote:
It shows that if Hillary wins Florida, Trump has only one path to victory: win all the other toss-ups.


Could you explain the logic of a "path" like this ?
All the elections take place at the same time and all the results are revealed at the same times so what is the idea behind this chart which make things look like the events are successive ?


'Path' is slightly misleading term here.
The claim is that there are 10 states that are seriously contested in presidential election.
Assuming binary outcomes (D or R) in each state that is 2^10=1024 possible outcomes. What this analysis claims is that 945 of those (or about 92%) result in Clinton presidency and only 72 (7%) in Trump presidency.
This is because Clinton is assumed to be winning greater portion of the states which are 'in the bag' and not seriously contested.
 
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Oldies but Goodies ... Avalon Hill and
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On a serious note, these paths start with the assumption that Clinton wins Michigan and Wisconsin, which are listed as toss-ups when I look around. Clinton holds slim leads in both states, but projecting her to win both is based on past party performance more than present party candidates. Clinton lost both of those primaries to Sanders, and her poll numbers and projections in both states have been slipping since May. Both candidates have ridiculously high unfavorables as well, so what's past may not be prologue this time.

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