Mac Mcleod
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Maddow describes trumps terrible numbers in the swing states as a
Quote:
"Campaign that's on fire...that's a campaign on fire that is sinking into a lake that is also on fire and the fire truck that just showed up to help is on fire and what's shooting out of it's firehoses is more fire."


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/08/05/hannity_if...

Meanwhile... if Trump loses, Hannity blames the RNC and it's leadership.

Quote:
"If in 96 days Trump loses this election, I am pointing the finger directly at people like Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham and John McCain," Hannity said on his syndicated radio show Wednesday.
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G Rowls
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Sorry as a European I can't take anybody seriously who comes out with this "Barack Obama and his radical agenda".
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Kelsey Rinella
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Sure, but Maine allocates it's delegates proportionally. So if one of Maine's electoral votes is teetering, this might be the right call.

I saw a visualization of the tipping-point states recently in which Maine and Nebraska were split up into districts rather than being considered as states. I think that captures this reality nicely.
 
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I'm not any huge Maddow fan, but the imagery in that quote is A+ material.
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rinelk wrote:
Sure, but Maine allocates it's delegates proportionally. So if one of Maine's electoral votes is teetering, this might be the right call.


If anything it suggests that Maine should be largely ignored. If you campaign in Ohio (when its close) you could flip 18 EVs. There are very few scenarios where the right call is going to be chasing one or two EVs when so many more are at stake elsewhere.
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Pontifex Maximus
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Chad_Ellis wrote:
rinelk wrote:
Sure, but Maine allocates it's delegates proportionally. So if one of Maine's electoral votes is teetering, this might be the right call.


If anything it suggests that Maine should be largely ignored. If you campaign in Ohio (when its close) you could flip 18 EVs. There are very few scenarios where the right call is going to be chasing one or two EVs when so many more are at stake elsewhere.


Especially since he managed to say something moronic again (quel suprise)

"Somali refugees have opened bustling shops in this state, sent their children to college, joined local government, stitched themselves into the fabric of life.

But Donald Trump suggested they also have brought crime and fostered terrorists. That incendiary charge was denounced Friday not only by a chorus of Somali leaders but by Senator Susan Collins, a Maine Republican.

“Mr. Trump’s statements disparaging immigrants who have come to this country legally are particularly unhelpful,” Collins said in yet another rebuke from a prominent Republican of the party’s presidential nominee. “Maine has benefited from people from Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and, increasingly, Africa — including our friends from Somalia.”

Trump’s comments, delivered Thursday at a Portland rally, led to bewilderment and anger among the state’s Somalis.

“Coming from a troubled place does not mean that we are criminals,” Abdifatah Ahmed said to loud cheers at a Friday protest in Portland, where at least 4,000 Somalis live. “So we will stay here, and, you know, in November we will vote.”

https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2016/08/05/maine-sees-soma...
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Truly hilarious. Now that he's dropping like a rock in the polls and has made it abundantly clear that there is no general election pivot coming, we can enjoy whatever entertainment value the campaign has to offer while we wait for the infamous "dustbin of history" to swallow Donald J. Trump.

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An interesting article on 538:

"Many have assumed that adherence to a certain conservative purity was the engine of the GOP, and given the party’s demographic homogeneity, this made sense. But re-evaluating recent history in light of Trump, and looking a bit closer at this year’s numbers, something else seems to be the primary motivator of GOP voters, something closer to the neighborhood of cultural conservatism and racial and economic grievance rather than a passion for small government."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-end-of-a-republican-...

Note: "A" GOP, not "The" GOP.

TLDR (and it is long): Trump is tapping very angry, anti-immigrant, anti-free trade voters.


Note: The graphs each use a different vertical scale.

The big question in my mind is, Trump seems to be enjoying himself: what if he does this again in four years? In eight years? ...
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Mac Mcleod
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rinelk wrote:
Sure, but Maine allocates it's delegates proportionally. So if one of Maine's electoral votes is teetering, this might be the right call.

I saw a visualization of the tipping-point states recently in which Maine and Nebraska were split up into districts rather than being considered as states. I think that captures this reality nicely.



Never hAve YOU More Clearly NOT Watched The video.


Maddow addresses that point. I recall she said it was a good one if you were drunk. But he didn't campaign anywhere near t he area that vote was. And Maine has famously voted against republicans over and over.
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Kelsey Rinella
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maxo-texas wrote:
rinelk wrote:
Sure, but Maine allocates it's delegates proportionally. So if one of Maine's electoral votes is teetering, this might be the right call.

I saw a visualization of the tipping-point states recently in which Maine and Nebraska were split up into districts rather than being considered as states. I think that captures this reality nicely.



Never hAve YOU More Clearly NOT Watched The video.


Maddow addresses that point. I recall she said it was a good one if you were drunk. But he didn't campaign anywhere near t he area that vote was. And Maine has f famously voted against republicans over and over.


Right you are! Not only had I not watched it, I actually misunderstood how Maine structures its votes. My belief was that the awarded electors proportionally. Apparently it's weirder than that, with upstate Maine being winner-take-all for one EV, and downstate being winner-take-all for two.

So, yeah, unless he's trying to romance a big donor in Portland and figured he'd get in a campaign stop on the way, that just looks bizarre. My bad.
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Xander Fulton
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More weird - he's campaigning shortly in Washington (state) AND OREGON. Apparently, this has been on some of our local news, but his campaign believes he has a shot to take Oregon.

I...wow.

Maine is one thing, but the Pacific Northwest? Good golly...I mean, the Pacific Northwest was 2 of the, what, 5 total, states that went Dukakis in '88. C'mon! What's he even thinking?
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Tyler Gobe
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XanderF wrote:
More weird - he's campaigning shortly in Washington (state) AND OREGON. Apparently, this has been on some of our local news, but his campaign believes he has a shot to take Oregon.

I...wow.

Maine is one thing, but the Pacific Northwest? Good golly...I mean, the Pacific Northwest was 2 of the, what, 5 total, states that went Dukakis in '88. C'mon! What's he even thinking?
Maybe he's going after the Bundy family's vote?
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Xander Fulton
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TylerGoble1 wrote:
XanderF wrote:
More weird - he's campaigning shortly in Washington (state) AND OREGON. Apparently, this has been on some of our local news, but his campaign believes he has a shot to take Oregon.

I...wow.

Maine is one thing, but the Pacific Northwest? Good golly...I mean, the Pacific Northwest was 2 of the, what, 5 total, states that went Dukakis in '88. C'mon! What's he even thinking?
Maybe he's going after the Bundy family's vote?


Common misconception: none of them were Oregonians.

(Although I'll grant that this may be a nuance that Trump also completely misses, since he does not appear to have any understanding of world affairs beyond 140-character-headline-Tweets)
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Boaty McBoatface
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Chad_Ellis wrote:
rinelk wrote:
Sure, but Maine allocates it's delegates proportionally. So if one of Maine's electoral votes is teetering, this might be the right call.


If anything it suggests that Maine should be largely ignored. If you campaign in Ohio (when its close) you could flip 18 EVs. There are very few scenarios where the right call is going to be chasing one or two EVs when so many more are at stake elsewhere.
If your goal is to win, and not just make a point at how broken the system is.
 
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Perhaps his strategists have realised that Trump campaining actually has a negative impact on voting intentions; therefore he should only campaign where it really doesn't matter as this minimises the effect.
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Christopher Yaure
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It is August, during the Olympics. Now IS the time to campaign in low impact states. If he goes back to Maine after Labor Day, then it will be time to question his judgment.

Ok - there are lots of reasons already to question the Snake Oil Salesman's judgment. But this is not one.
 
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Chief Slovenly
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It may be the doldrums of August, but he's way behind. He needs to run the table on OH, PA and FL to have any shot at it, and he's off in Maine and now a West Coast tour. It's all part and parcel of an interview he gave in the WaPo where he made a vow to compete in "states no Republican would ever go" -- his "secret state strategy" in the words of his interviewer.

Which is about as insanely stupid as anything else he does any given day.
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J
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Maine did elect LePage governor! gulp
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SPIGuy wrote:
Truly hilarious. Now that he's dropping like a rock in the polls and has made it abundantly clear that there is no general election pivot coming, we can enjoy whatever entertainment value the campaign has to offer while we wait for the infamous "dustbin of history" to swallow Donald J. Trump.


No please. Let him come back in 4 years to run again. You can't destroy a party in 1 election cycle. But give him 2, and he'll have a fighting chance.
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Chief Slovenly
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jasonwocky wrote:
SPIGuy wrote:
Truly hilarious. Now that he's dropping like a rock in the polls and has made it abundantly clear that there is no general election pivot coming, we can enjoy whatever entertainment value the campaign has to offer while we wait for the infamous "dustbin of history" to swallow Donald J. Trump.


No please. Let him come back in 4 years to run again. You can't destroy a party in 1 election cycle. But give him 2, and he'll have a fighting chance.


He won't in the slightest. He'll have lost too much face, and if he even makes the slightest noise about running again, the long knives will be out in picoseconds.

No, for however horrible he is, Ted Cruz set himself up brilliantly.
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Boaty McBoatface
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bbenston wrote:
jasonwocky wrote:
SPIGuy wrote:
Truly hilarious. Now that he's dropping like a rock in the polls and has made it abundantly clear that there is no general election pivot coming, we can enjoy whatever entertainment value the campaign has to offer while we wait for the infamous "dustbin of history" to swallow Donald J. Trump.


No please. Let him come back in 4 years to run again. You can't destroy a party in 1 election cycle. But give him 2, and he'll have a fighting chance.


He won't in the slightest. He'll have lost too much face, and if he even makes the slightest noise about running again, the long knives will be out in picoseconds.

No, for however horrible he is, Ted Cruz set himself up brilliantly.
Given the mentality of his "No we do not support him an any way, ohh no" types here and their conviction the system is bent and needs braking I would not be so sure.

I think his core support will buy the conspiracy theory, and will demand he stands again (if not him then a puppet member of the Trumpist party.

Assuming of course he is not just trolling the Republicans.
 
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slatersteven wrote:
bbenston wrote:
jasonwocky wrote:
SPIGuy wrote:
Truly hilarious. Now that he's dropping like a rock in the polls and has made it abundantly clear that there is no general election pivot coming, we can enjoy whatever entertainment value the campaign has to offer while we wait for the infamous "dustbin of history" to swallow Donald J. Trump.


No please. Let him come back in 4 years to run again. You can't destroy a party in 1 election cycle. But give him 2, and he'll have a fighting chance.


He won't in the slightest. He'll have lost too much face, and if he even makes the slightest noise about running again, the long knives will be out in picoseconds.

No, for however horrible he is, Ted Cruz set himself up brilliantly.
Given the mentality of his "No we do not support him an any way, ohh no" types here and their conviction the system is bent and needs braking I would not be so sure.

I think his core support will buy the conspiracy theory, and will demand he stands again (if not him then a puppet member of the Trumpist party.

Assuming of course he is not just trolling the Republicans.


Your words are mostly English, but that's as far as I got.

The only people supporting Trump in here that I've seen are the "(R) can do no wrong except not being (R) enough and if I ever pull the lever for a (D) then ninjas assassinate my mom" types. Most of the people here who see the system as broken see Trump as a symptom of a broken institution, not its savior.

I think most of his "core" don't care as much about Trump as they do him feeding their xenophobia. And in three years, there will be someone new to feed their xenophobia. And then they can choose to add "orange" to the list of skin colors they hate.
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Boaty McBoatface
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GameCrossing wrote:
slatersteven wrote:
bbenston wrote:
jasonwocky wrote:
SPIGuy wrote:
Truly hilarious. Now that he's dropping like a rock in the polls and has made it abundantly clear that there is no general election pivot coming, we can enjoy whatever entertainment value the campaign has to offer while we wait for the infamous "dustbin of history" to swallow Donald J. Trump.


No please. Let him come back in 4 years to run again. You can't destroy a party in 1 election cycle. But give him 2, and he'll have a fighting chance.


He won't in the slightest. He'll have lost too much face, and if he even makes the slightest noise about running again, the long knives will be out in picoseconds.

No, for however horrible he is, Ted Cruz set himself up brilliantly.
Given the mentality of his "No we do not support him an any way, ohh no" types here and their conviction the system is bent and needs braking I would not be so sure.

I think his core support will buy the conspiracy theory, and will demand he stands again (if not him then a puppet member of the Trumpist party.

Assuming of course he is not just trolling the Republicans.


Your words are mostly English, but that's as far as I got.

The only people supporting Trump in here that I've seen are the "(R) can do no wrong except not being (R) enough and if I ever pull the lever for a (D) then ninjas assassinate my mom" types. Most of the people here who see the system as broken see Trump as a symptom of a broken institution, not its savior.

I think most of his "core" don't care as much about Trump as they do him feeding their xenophobia. And in three years, there will be someone new to feed their xenophobia. And then they can choose to add "orange" to the list of skin colors they hate.
Well I can recall a lot of "we don't support Trump"ers saying that he is a reaction to dissatisfaction with the system, and that if people want to stop him they need to change the system. The same ones who always seem to turn up to defend him (obliquely) whenever he is attacked.

He is being trumpeted as a frustrated reaction to what some see as a political elite that no longer reflects their values. His loss is only going to reinforce that belief that they are no longer enfranchised by a system that (they feel) has lost all direction and is contorted by an intellectual elite that panders to minorities and special interests (rather then them).

Yes, of course, there is an element of racism (the main one I think) but Donny also offers something else, he is a sabot that they are throwing into the gears of American democracy.

They are like the kid who if he cannot play with the toy will break it.
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Yeah, I don't get it. I honestly thought it was his election to lose so long as there was a terror attack every 2-3 weeks until the election. But he just kinda lost it ever since the convention. Unless he waits a few more weeks, drops out, and they give it to Romney. At this point Romney'd win no problem versus Clinton. That doesn't even make much sense in bizarro world though, since Trump isn't actually a Republican.
 
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XanderF wrote:
(Although I'll grant that this may be a nuance that Trump also completely misses, since he does not appear to have any understanding of world affairs beyond 140-character-headline-Tweets)


Not that he has any understanding of world affairs within 140-character tweets, either. This is not a man with a small core of coherence beyond which he begins to sound confused--it's turtles all the way down.
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