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A Game of Thrones: The Board Game (Second Edition)» Forums » Strategy

Subject: Top-down analysis of a balance of power rss

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Motivation

It is now 2.5 years since Perrytom wrote his outstanding analysis of the game mechanics (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3). Following those lines will probably avoid you from getting in trouble when Westeros is burning. The most important conclusion: aggression is unattractive (1on1 conflicts are cost-intensive, it is hard to defend a remote territory, and finally there is leader bashing). Unfortunately, there is usually at least one player who either fails in the task of leader bashing or who is bored and rather commits suicide than playing the game of thrones until the end (and thus creates a chaotic power vacuum). But what happens when everyone has mastered the game mechanics? When neither obvious blunders appear nor too optimistic (e.g. in context of future Westeros cards) – and thus statistically inferior – strategies are applied? When everyone wants to win? (Remember, there is only one winner and five losers. No second place!)

Everyone will focus on his unquestioned sphere of influence and only a couple of areas will be battered by fight, if ever. However, you shall not confuse “unquestioned” with “natural” as there is no natural balance of power by construction. First, Stark’s “natural” sphere is about twice as good as Greyjoy’s! And secondly, let’s assume the houses have indeed organised an apparently “fair” territorial division until Round 10. Who will win? The house with the most potent assault team. And nothing compares to the incredible possibilities of Loras + Queen of Thorns.

In my opinion the tenor of this game has to be: How to stop Stark and Tyrell from winning?

I play this game since 2011 and in all these years and all these games Stark and Tyrell did a quite overproportional score. (I do not understand why this is not also manifested in the PBF statistics. Anyway, also Perrytom seems to agree with this finding. The most delicate statistics: as Tyrell, I won all but one game!) In my opinion, this is because the late-game dominance (see above) of these houses is usually underestimated. I argue that this fact has to be considered from the very beginning.

The explicit reason why I decided to write this manuscript is actually the discussion and treatment of the so-called Greyjoy–Lannister-conflict. E.g. there are a lot of game modifications tested in order to settle it. Personally, I have never understand why there shall be such a conflict. Maybe my position is clearer at the end of this manuscript.



Assumptions

As we are talking about an “expert” (i.e. with rational and non-blundering players) game, we can take the following axioms as given:

Axiom1: The game ends after Round 10 and it is sufficient to have 1 extra castle (i.e. 1 stronghold + 4 castles or 2 strongholds + 2 castles, depending on the house).
Remark: When the game is really balanced you should not hope for more. There is nothing bad in getting 2 extra castles but that is rather a matter of late-game luck or blunders of your opponents.

Axiom2: All attacks have some strategical reason, there will be no opportune but strategically useless attacks.
Remark: It is hardly possible to win a 1on1 conflict, so generally a 1on1 conflict is just weakening both opponents. Make sure that your aggression supports your chosen long-term goals.

Axiom3: Do not bet on “Web of lies”.
Remark: You can construct a whole strategy around web of lies. I shifted the justification to the end of this manuscript. If you do not like this Axiom, just imagine that web of lies was drawn in turn 2 without any influence and this manuscript regards only such games.

Overall remark: Some of these Axioms may break down at the end of the game (Round 8+) but shall be the guideline until then.



Central metric

The central topic in this manuscript shall be for each house: “How to maximise the winning probability after Round 10?”

The different possible strategies of the houses have to be evaluated according to the two central questions:
1) Where is the required extra castle?
2) How to avoid anyone else from getting an extra castle?




Economic potentials
(The rankings are definitively somewhat subjective and may depend slightly on the current alliances and degree of aggression. However in a rough view, most would support a ranking similar to this, I guess.)

Supply: Stark > Martell > Tyrell > Baratheon > Greyjoy > Lannister
Reasoning: Stark has 5-6 barrels and further the possibility to get a lot of 1-unit armies, Martell and also Tyrell have 4 save barrels, Baratheon has most probable 4 barrels but is vulnerable, Greyjoy and Lannister have to fight for more than 3 barrels.

PT-generation: Stark > Tyrell > (Baratheon, Martell) > Lannister > Greyjoy
Reasoning: Stark can easily generate 4 or 6 PTs each round, Tyrell has 3-4 save PTs (arbor + port/Dornish Marches), Baratheon can usually not utilise KL but has still nice CP-options, Martell is happy in peace but has sincere problems in war, Lannister has at maximum 3 PT (Harrenal, port), Greyjoy has a really hard/uncertain job.

Mustering: (Tyrell, Baratheon, Martell) > Greyjoy > Lannister |Stark

Reasoning: In terms of Westeros-mustering all houses have 5 mustering points. For CP*-mustering two conditions have to be considered: 1) CP* possible and 2) the quality of the CP*-location. Tyrell, Baratheon, and Martell can most probable CP* and have remote but well connected CP*-locations (with Martell slightly worse as Sunspear is not connected to Prince’s Pass or enemy territory). Greyjoy and Lannister have rather no CP* and Lannister has no unraidable CP*-location. Stark stands somewhat aside. If there is pressure on Winterfell he lacks a stronghold. On the other hand, he can spam a lot of footmen for the vast lands of the North.

To conclude, Stark and Tyrell are economically superior. However, Martell and Baratheon are almost as good. Usually these four houses have either at least 1 star or the VSB. Lannister and Greyjoy are economically inferior. This, plus the empirical knowledge that a war decreases the CP/CP*-generation, already visualises why a Greyjoy-Lannister alliance is mandatory. But we will find much more pressing reasons when analysing the geostrategic abilities of the different houses.



Geostrategic potentials


The omnipotent champion
Goal: Take Crackclaw Point or Seagard (or Flint’s Finger)

Stark has an awesome situation. Like Russia, the North is basically not invadable. Lord Baratheon can do actually nothing as long as the Narrow Sea is save and Greyjoy may claim the Stoney Shore but Winterfell is quite hard to conquer and even harder to defend. So Stark’s 4 victory points are save and he has to do nothing but preparing the final stroke in Round 10. (However, sometimes a Stark player reaches such a dominant position that he holds up to 6 castles in the mid-game or even ends the game immediately.) Further Roose Bolton is a beloved guest in Crackclaw Point, so Stark has usually always a full set of hand cards. Thus, Eddard + Blackfish will automatically result in more causalities on the other side of the conflict.

Fun fact: If the status quo is manifested until the very end, Stark has still won because he has more barrels than Martell. (And even if this is not the case, he has probably more PTs then Martell.)




The kingmaker
Goal: Riverrun or Winterfell

Greyjoy has a quite poor unquestioned sphere of influence. He has the very unthankful job to utilise his dominant early-game power to get a competitive sphere of influence in the late-game. There are two options, either excepting or ignoring Axiom2:
(1) Take Bay of Ice and Stoney shore (and maybe Castle Black)
(2) Destroy Lannister

Option 1: Stark can neither defend the Bay of Ice nor the Stoney Shore. Only an aggressive Lannister may stop Greyjoy but a smart Lannister would never ask Greyjoy to switch to Option 2.
This option gives Greyjoy 4 barrels and makes Flints Finger untouchable. Also Seagard becomes much more stable as Stark has to focus on the defence of Winterfell (and as Lannister would probably not support Stark at Seagard). Further, set up in the right manner, the Realm and even Stark may regard Greyjoy controling Bay of Ice and Stoney Shore as “fair” (in fact, the supply distribution is fair then). So as long as Greyjoy stops there, a peace/only cold war between Stark and Greyjoy is still possible. In my opinion the superior Greyjoy strategy.

Option 2: This option is ill in two points. First, it is not that easy to destroy Lannister. Greyjoy has a great attack power but a very poor defence power (once Lannister is further up on the FD track). He can neither land with a siege engine nor with a great army as Clegane might wipe out the whole Greyjoy army at once. But lets assume Greyjoy is successful: He holds all shores from Flint’s Finger to Lannisport. And Lannister has only useless remains in Stoney Sept and Harrenhal. With this set-up Tyrell will almost certainly go for Lannisport and Riverrun in Round 10, probably by burning the support in the Golden Sound. And/or Stark can invade Flint’s Finger and Seagard as Greyjoy can not defend against Tyrell and Stark (and Lannister).
Conclusion: When Greyjoy loses only one castle, either Stark or Tyrell has won the game. And Greyjoy has lost. I evaluate Greyjoy’s winning chances as close to zero. This reasoning shows that going for a Lannister alliance is mandatory for Greyjoy by very basic principles. Same shall hold for Lannister. There is actually no Greyjoy-Lannister conflict.




The under dog
Goal: Any of the 3 castles bordering Blackwater

Lannister has two options to win the game:
(1) Alliance with Greyjoy: Close the ring around the Stoney Sept support hub
(2) Destroy Greyjoy
The second option is actually just a joke. Balon and Victarion may destroy a Lannister fleet unconditionally on the environment. So an alliance with Greyjoy is the only option. (Well, this requires Greyjoy to agree. But Lannister is anyway helplessly bound on Greyjoy’s strategy.) But even with a Greyjoy alliance, Lannister is facing a hard task. The occupation of the Blackwater and maybe even Searoad Marches is a hard task when facing a Baratheon-Tyrell alliance. However, if this is realised prior to Round 10, Lannister may have the second best winning chance after Stark.




The diplomat
Goal: Storm’s End, the Reach, Harrenhal

Baratheon’s own defence capabilities are somewhat limited. Theoretically, the four neighbours may agree to divide Baratheon’s territories is 4 pieces. Within 1 or 2 turns he holds at maximum Dragonstone. However, neither Stark nor Tyrell have any interest that Martell escapes from his cage and Lannister gets the Blackwater. So Stark will support Baratheon on the seas and Tyrell at the Blackwater (probably). But only as long as Baratheon stays best friend with both of them. Furthermore, Doran will remember Baratheon in times of a clash that also Martell is also one of his best friends. This makes Baratheon nothing more than a puppet. Actually his only proper aim is Harrenhal.
So Baratheon is the puppet of at least two neighbours and the eternal enemy of Lannister (Blackwater, Harrenhal). Pretty depressive position. Anyway, if the diplomacy works, Baratheon has a realistic chance to end up with an extra castle after Round 10, so he has actually a “balanced” position.




The juggernaut
Goal: Any castle south and left from the Eyrie

Tyrell has two options to go beyond his unquestioned sphere for a fourth barrel:
(1) Searoad Marches
(2) Prince’s Pass
Remark: If Tyrell goes for all 5 barrels all but Stark have to exercise some leader bashing…

Searoad Marches:
(Baratheon shall support this claim, so it is actual easy to obtain.) Until Round 8/9, the Tyrell strategy is a no-brainer: Construct two SE in Oldtown and keep Loras and QoT on your hand.
In Round 10 you pick your victim: Martell, Lannister, or Baratheon. (When there is no Arienne in Starfall or no Tyrion in Lannisport, your choice is easy.) QoT is even more important than Loras as she will allow you to march after your victim by burning one of his marches. (There is no doubt that you will have a M+1*, of course.) A preemptive Patchface or Doran can limit your abilities but even so you have an over-proportional chance to win.

Prince’s Pass:
This comes with a total war against Martell. Martell shall be hindered from the very beginning so at some point Starfall will be occupied. The drawbacks are obvious: Martell will fight unconditionally for Prince’s Pass. While this conflict will require the complete military and diplomatic focus, the defence of the Reach or Highgarden is rather weak. Further the CP-situation will dramatically decrease compared to a friendly Martell, as there is Doran but also a permanent raid order at the Boneway. And finally: As the all-in plan is obvious, Tyrell may just meet Arianne in Round 10 and remain with 3 castles.
Remark: The Prince’s Pass option is actually not possible since Martell is much more potent in the early-game. Only in the rare case of facing in Round 2 a mustering and a CoK (probability of 1/9 or 2/9, depending on Baratheons opening), this option appears to be realistic.

Conclusion: The Searoad Marches strategy gives decent late-game possibilities. The Prince’s Pass strategy gives satisfaction since Martell will be worse but hardly any winning chances when the leader bashing mechanism is working.




The Prince
Goal: Take the Reach
(In my opinion, Martell has the smallest winning chance, and is thus the most exciting house.)

The “superior” strategy is a complete isolation (which is often easily achievable as Doran and Arienne makes Martell the ugliest aim in the game). Of course Storm’s End and Prince’s Pass are not negotiable. Just set-up a full army and generate as much PT as possible (i.e. 6 in late game). Further, Doran shall explain Baratheon that Martell is his very best friend in times of a clash and shall explain Tyrell that raiding Prince’s Pass is the worst idea ever. The extreme problem of this strategy is, that there is actually only one realistic way to win, the Reach. This makes him maximum predictable. Further, an Arianne-defence at Starfall may destroy Tyrell’s win but it also costs Martell a castle. So in case that Tyrell can not defend the Reach, he can attack or thread to attack Starfall in revenge.

Thus, when there are no conflicts weakening one of his neighbours, the only possibility to get a realstic winning chance is negotiating an aggressive alliance with one of them. However, both have their drawbacks.
With Tyrell: There is little to achieve. Maybe Martell gets the Kingswood, but neither Baratheon nor Tyrell will allow to give him King’s Landing. Further, the occupation and defence of King’s Landing is harder to realize than the standard strategy to go for the Reach in Round 10.
With Baratheon: Baratheon’s strategic goal is the defence of the Blackwater. This is actually only possible with Tyrell’s support (or neutrality). So Baratheon will only turn against Tyrell when this appears to be opportune, Martell has rather no influence on this decision. Once a Baratheon-Tyrell war started, it still might be clever just to stay neutral. And anyway, the Reach seems to be still the only approachable extra castle.

So Martell will stay unbowed, unbent, and unbroken, usually never worse than position 3 but hardly better than position 2. A prince who will never become king.



Conclusions

Stark and Tyrell enjoy some natural superiority and a Greyjoy - Lannister conflict would just increases this imbalance. Further, Stark and Baratheon are forced by construction to be allied. So in my conclusions, Stark and Baratheon on the one side and Greyjoy and Lannister on the other side shall have some kind of unconditional alliance (or rather master-puppet relations). There will be three non-avoidable conflicts:
(1) The siege of Winterfell between Greyjoy and Stark
(2) The battle for the Blackwater between Baratheon and Lannister
(3) The battle for the Reach between Tyrell, Baratheon, and Martell.

Tyrell and Martell have to decide if they want to join one of these “eternal” alliances or if they stay neutral. From my point of view, Tyrell shall prefer to (passively) join the Baratheon alliance. So, Martell is forced to join the Lannister alliance. However, at some opportune point Baratheon might ask Martell for an aggressive alliance against Tyrell. The cold war between these 4 houses has to find the final balance of power.



Discussion


A word on web of lies:
I am aware that the “web of lies” has a game changing character. However:
1) In half of the cases (until Round 6) you have either no possibility to utilize this the unique possibility or there is still enough time for the Realm to correct for your aggression. So this guide holds true for at least half of all games.
2) This card favours according to the IT track. It is really double-edged, it is good to have some backup plan when you are the victim of this card (reliable diplomatic relations which support you to recapture the lost territory in the next season, demilitarized borders, uncomfortable cards,...).
3) Besides Arienne Martell, unfortunately especially Stark and Tyrell have the smallest risk due to “web of lies”. The Narrow Sea can be easily defended by a D+2* order, same holds for Winterfell. Also WSS is pretty save with a D+2* but additionally QoT can easily prevent most attacks.

Maybe my analysis seems to be too theoretical, maybe you cannot completely ignore the irrationality or greed or optimism of the human players. Maybe all of this is useless when “web of lies” shows up. So I am looking forward for your comments! You are welcome to disprove my analysis! ;-)


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Tom Ragaert
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MasterOfCoin wrote:
In my opinion the tenor of this game has to be: How to stop Stark and Tyrell from winning?

I haven't read the rest of the analysis but in my experience victories in GoT are divided as follows:

- Greyjoy: 33%
- Baratheon: 25%
- Tyrell: 20%
- Stark: 15%
- Martell: 5%
- Lannister: 2%

Very intrigued to read the rest of this post now!
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Björn Grafström
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First of all, it's a wonderful post with much insight into the game. In the actual table top sessions I've played (and kept record of) Tyrell is the worst house with only 2 victories in 29 attempts. I do consider them to be strong (they are often close or in the middle regarding victory points), but I guess most players understand the final push Tyrell can make and act against it in turn 10. Stark, Greyjoy and Baratheon fare well with 7, 6 and 6 victories each btw.

Most of your reasoning stands on this though:

Quote:
But what happens when everyone has mastered the game mechanics? When neither obvious blunders appear nor too optimistic (e.g. in context of future Westeros cards) – and thus statistically inferior – strategies are applied?


There are more ways than one to master a game, and your reasoning seems to go down to that there is A best way to play the game and that all players should (for their best interest) play the game this way. If you told machines how to play the game and let six of them battle it out I think your reasoning is spot on. However, the human factor will completely trash that most of the time. People will come with different ideas, they will try things they have never done before, they will have good days and bad days, they master different houses better than others, they can be more or less open to diplomatic solutions etc etc. And as you point out, it takes only one house to not play the optimal way for a potential power vacuum to appear. And I am yet to see a game where no one makes what they on their own call "a mistake".

In short, I don't hold your axioms as axioms. Axiom 1 can be the case in games I play, but I don't consider it a law of the game due to the human factor mentioned above. As for Axiom 2 I often see attacks with a strategic value when it comes to house cards. As Perrytom has mentioned in his analysis the hand management is very important for all houses, and good players often try to gain an advantage by clever(er) use of house cards. Trying to lure out Arianne, Tyrion, Loras, Balon, Roose etc. "Tourneys" also comes into effect here, that can often change things.

I also holds Greyjoy in higher esteem than you do when it comes to PT generation. With Pyke and Pyke port they should easily collect three tokens every turn without the worry of raids. Only Stark and Tyrell can match or beat that imho (I guess Baratheon could but you rarely see a ship in Dragonstone port in games I play). Greyjoy can do this and still fight Stark or Lannister, a rare treat I'd say.

Just to add some things about what goals different houses should have (as most of the things written by you I agree with).

I also think an alliance between Lannister and Greyjoy is best for both parties. It almost always leaves the door to Riverrun open for Greyjoy conquering anyway, so should the fight in the north prove successful Riverrun could be victory point number seven for Greyjoy (Pyke, Seagard, Flint's Finger, Winterfell, Moat Cailin, White Harbor and Riverrun), but with only Winterfell on your hands of the Stark castles you often win the game if you also take Riverrun (Pyke, Seagard, Riverrun, Winterfell all being strongholds and your are most likely to have Flint's Finger for a total of five). Most of the time you can reach Riverrun from anywhere on the board where you have units so the option to try and take it is always there.

Lannister wins of this alliance as well, and can focus on other things than to survive

Baratheon is an interesting house as they hold so many different options. I find them really hard to play myself, but given the right circumstances they could invade Dorne, the middle of the map (The Reach, Harrenhal) or the north. I actually find it best to somewhere down the line go for The Narrow Sea, that would give you access to three victory points and some of them are often scarcely defended if you have an alliance with Stark. This is most likely the case if Greyjoy have moved north - something Greyjoy should do as we both think it is best for Greyjoy to ally with Lannister just to stop Stark from the predictable "I'll claim castle five and six in the final turn and there's nothing you can do about it". But regarding Baratheon, I always seem to have supply issues while playing them, more often than not breaking my game. I also think they have the worst set of house cards. All neighbours have lots of swords and you have one (1!) fortification, and it's on one of your precious sword cards... When the fighting begins, Baratheon units drop of like...in the books. Or in the tv show

As for Martell I often see the chase for Dragonstone as a realistic option. Baratheon have so many neighbours that you could often gain the upper hand when it comes to house cards, giving you options apart from the Web of lies situation.

In short, I agree with lots of what you've said, but as you say yourself, I think you have underestimated the human factor (a bit).

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Thank you for the detailed response! Let's see if I find further valid arguments for my position.

Quote:
There are more ways than one to master a game, and your reasoning seems to go down to that there is A best way to play the game and that all players should (for their best interest) play the game this way. If you told machines how to play the game and let six of them battle it out I think your reasoning is spot on.

Your argument about six machines is fair. However, I rather have in mind a set-up with 3 machines (or quite rational human players) and 3 human players who master the game "their" way/in an yet unknown way (possibly also the "rational" way). Assume the rational players indeed perform collective leader bashing if required. (Further, Greyjoy shall be controled by a rational player as this house is indeed crucial.)

So the central question is: What is the superior strategy for a "non-"rational player in such a set-up?



Perrytom is right about the hand management. And especially in a world with leader bashing this is the approprioate method to weaken your opponent compared to an invasion. Tourneys on the other hand are usually preformed between houses of a tight alliance. And thus just increase the imbalance between alliances and houses with such an alliance.

Of course Greyjoy can CP on Pyke, however, it is also his only CP*-location. Additional, it is sometimes tactically mandatory to have SE + march order at Pyke in order to answer an assault. (Well, once Greyjoy holds the Bay of Ice, the SE can be moved to Flint's Finger).

I agree that Riverrun is never save from Greyjoy. But I disagree about Greyjoy getting seven castles. With support hubs at White Harbor and the eastern seas it it quite hard to conquer Winterfell or Moat Cailin. And actually only with siege engine(s) which will be useless in the defence. If Greyjoy is able to get 1 or 2 even to Northern castles permanently, then Stark had either a lot of bad luck or is incompetent (or Baratheon has taken the Narrow Sea).

I agree that Baratheon is the less straight-forward house. A lot of possibilities and a lot of threats. The diplomatic way will hide the supply issue and the poor hand cards. As Blackwater and King's Landing are the crucial territories for Baratheon, most of his troups should stand there. This also supports the strategy to go for Harrenhal or the Reach (only). Anyway, in principle, I would agree that occupying the Narrow Sea is the most exciting way. However, despite that this is usually not possible, this is the most aggressive act in the whole game. Without Narrow Sea, Stark will be helplessly fragmented by Baratheon and Greyjoy. In order to prevent this, I - as any of the three other houses - would (and did!) go for a unconditional crusade against Baratheon until the Narrow Sea belongs to Stark again. Going for Dorne looks also unintuitive. Either Martell and Tyrell will ally (forever). Or Tyrell will join the aggression. While Baratheon will have a hard time to get more than the East Summer Sea and Storm's End, Tyrell gets Starfall and Prince's Pass. Attacking Martell just increases the winning chances of Tyrell.

About Martell and Dragonstone: First, Salladhor makes an assault impossible (aside from web of lies). So this works only with a long war against a prepared Baratheon. Second, as long as Stark supports Baratheon, there is absolutely no way to get the Shipsbreaker Bay.


--------------------
To whom it concers:
Greyjoy and Baratheon have apparently decent scores in many records. I just wonder: How did Greyjoy (mostly) suceed: Going on Lannister or Stark? How did Baratheon (mostly) suceed: Going for Narrow Sea or somewhere else? (I guess most agree at least that Lannister and Martell are the worst houses, right?)
 
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Carlo Patek
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MasterOfCoin wrote:



The kingmaker
Goal: Riverrun or Winterfell

Greyjoy has a quite poor unquestioned sphere of influence. He has the very unthankful job to utilise his dominant early-game power to get a competitive sphere of influence in the late-game. There are two options, either excepting or ignoring Axiom2:
(1) Take Bay of Ice and Stoney shore (and maybe Castle Black)
(2) Destroy Lannister

Option 2: This option is ill in two points. First, it is not that easy to destroy Lannister. Greyjoy has a great attack power but a very poor defence power (once Lannister is further up on the FD track). He can neither land with a siege engine nor with a great army as Clegane might wipe out the whole Greyjoy army at once. But lets assume Greyjoy is successful: He holds all shores from Flint’s Finger to Lannisport. And Lannister has only useless remains in Stoney Sept and Harrenhal. With this set-up Tyrell will almost certainly go for Lannisport and Riverrun in Round 10, probably by burning the support in the Golden Sound. And/or Stark can invade Flint’s Finger and Seagard as Greyjoy can not defend against Tyrell and Stark (and Lannister).
Conclusion: When Greyjoy loses only one castle, either Stark or Tyrell has won the game. And Greyjoy has lost. I evaluate Greyjoy’s winning chances as close to zero. This reasoning shows that going for a Lannister alliance is mandatory for Greyjoy by very basic principles. Same shall hold for Lannister. There is actually no Greyjoy-Lannister conflict.


Should Stark and Tyrell push for the elimination of Lannister then?
 
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Thomas Maile
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Hey so i do understand that you dont want to leave your Influence sphere and how aggression is unattractive, however you might consider to actively lose so the kingbashing how you call it comes into play. I once did this (Dunno which house i played unfortunately) so the other houses bashed they guy i did purposely lose against and buffed me up a little to much in their worries that i could lose too hard against the same opponent once more. What do you think about using this strategy if you know that kingbashing is a common thing in this playing round? I know its a bit risky but if you manage to control your losses to a point where you need other players to buff you up or they'll lose as you do it seems fine to me.
 
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Quote:
Should Stark and Tyrell push for the elimination of Lannister then?


Defitively not!

First of all, it is Lord Greyjoy who has to find his one and only enemy. And he has to decide fast, as long as both neighbours are still weak (let's say directly after the first mustering). Second, in the early-game Lannister can neither militarily nor diplomatically (e.g. in a CoK) be opposed by Stark (S) and Tyrell (T). So even if these houses would like to present Greyjoy a nice Lannister snack, there is just no opportunity.

So let's assume that Greyjoy has picked his target:
1) Against Lannister: Any house in Westeros will be allied to Lannister in order to keep Greyjoy weak. Especially S and T shall make sure that Lannister is their ally at Seagard or the Searoad Marches/even Lannisport.
2) Against Stark: S would love to have a strong Lannister who threats to take Seagard or even the Ironmen's bay, just to keep Greyjoy more careful.
For Tyrell, the Lannister strength is somewhat ambivalent: "Lannister and Baratheon shall have a stalemate at Blackwater so Tyrell gets a diplomatic bonus. On the other hand, Searoad Marches have to be save (via support hub in Highgarden)."
 
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GeneralRetard wrote:
Hey so i do understand that you dont want to leave your Influence sphere and how aggression is unattractive, however you might consider to actively lose so the kingbashing how you call it comes into play. I once did this (Dunno which house i played unfortunately) so the other houses bashed they guy i did purposely lose against and buffed me up a little to much in their worries that i could lose too hard against the same opponent once more. What do you think about using this strategy if you know that kingbashing is a common thing in this playing round? I know its a bit risky but if you manage to control your losses to a point where you need other players to buff you up or they'll lose as you do it seems fine to me.


I am not sure if I understand you right, so I shall repeat in my words (and answer to them):
"May it be a good strategy to blackmail other houses by the threat to act as a king maker?"

In principle, this is nothing but remembering the others that they have to apply "leader bashing". So in principle its a way to bring back rationality to the game. However, it depends on your situation.

If you are just fine but just slighty weaker than your "leading" neighbour, this strategy can not be superior. There is just no reason.

If your opponent has performed a strategically significant stroke (let's say Baratheon took the Narraw Sea) but noone seems to be interested in leader bashing. Without blackmailing: Slow death without any chance to win the game.
=> Blackmail like hell! Ideally summon all forces at the western shores in order to hinder Greyjoy from hindering Baratheon's victory. The only way to stop Baratheon is Martell taking Shipsbreaker Bay (probably by support from QoT). So in the end the North is devastated but Baratheon is rather extinguished. With some luck, Stark is able to reclaim all 4 Stark castles and maybe even Crackclaw Point.

Another blackmail advice: Try to keep our troups alive. Just move them to territories without castles. The aggressor (and leader bashers) are often only interested in the castles (and seas).
 
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Marko Badric
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I've been waiting for a thread made by an experienced player for a very long time...

I will try to contribute my own statistic. I've played about 50 games, counting only the ones played with 6 players (my group cancels playing meetings if we don't get a full 6). My statistics are lost on a spreadsheet on my old PC, so I will have to speak from memory...

My data:
========
When we started playing, and were inexperienced, win count was split evenly between all houses, except Martel. I still believe that, even with an experienced player at the reins, winning as Martel is very hard, but that's another story. I think this even win distribution is because results heavily depended on individual player skills, as there were great skill gaps, and because better players won whatever seat they took.

10-20 games later, situation has changed greatly. Stark became the win count leader by a considerable margin. We then proceeded to put newer players on Stark. Even though that reduces the amount of Stark victories, all those newer guys always performed relatively well, which spoke of how strong that house is. If there's a close second, it would have to be Greyjoy. Greyjoy was always strong as well as Stark. Lannister had 2 victories in like 30 games, and Martel had one. Tyrell and Baratheon were winning 1/6 to 1/10 games on average.
========

Conclusion:

Once every player gets a hang of this game, imbalances are pretty obvious and not at all small. I will try to outline them in a few points:

1) Stark has a huge hinterland which is, combined with his constant supply of Ned Stark and cards with which he never loses troops, also very easy to defend.

2) Greyjoy is stronger than Lannister. It is witnessed by two points: Lannister is extremely unforgiving - one mistake vs a decent GJ and you're dead, and Lannister is permanently very starved on power tokens, meaning that once he loses Raven, he won't be even with GJ. I'm not even gonna mention the discrepancy in house card strengths...

3) Martel is too defensive. It's a house you hate attacking and can rarely conquer, but man, it's a hell of a work to leave Dorne as a Martel...

My question: what do you guys believe would be a good and simple way to balance these things out? I would hate to make major changes... My first suggestion would be adding a ship into Lannisport's harbour.
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VersusAllOdds wrote:

My question: what do you guys believe would be a good and simple way to balance these things out? I would hate to make major changes... My first suggestion would be adding a ship into Lannisport's harbour.


The intention of my essay was to show that Greyjoy has to go for a Lannister alliance. With this, Stark is matched and Lannister is save.

If your question was how to balance the Greyjoy-Lannister situation by hard facts, I would disagree with your suggestion.

Greyjoy's dominant task is to keep the ironmen's bay save so it is almost mandatory for Greyjoy to stroke immediately against the Golden Sound if Lannister has more than two ships in total (1 in Golden Sound and 1 in the port). Even if Greyjoy really wants to have an alliance with Lannister!

Do not forget: Victarion wins against ANY number of ships! Thus more Lannister ships have no effect for the defence but are a sign of aggression only!

So, if ever, give the Lannisters some more initial land forces.


(On Martell's situation I agree...most challenging house...)

 
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Sebastian van Dalen
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VersusAllOdds wrote:


Conclusion:

Once every player gets a hang of this game, imbalances are pretty obvious and not at all small. I will try to outline them in a few points:

1) Stark has a huge hinterland which is, combined with his constant supply of Ned Stark and cards with which he never loses troops, also very easy to defend.

2) Greyjoy is stronger than Lannister. It is witnessed by two points: Lannister is extremely unforgiving - one mistake vs a decent GJ and you're dead, and Lannister is permanently very starved on power tokens, meaning that once he loses Raven, he won't be even with GJ. I'm not even gonna mention the discrepancy in house card strengths...

3) Martel is too defensive. It's a house you hate attacking and can rarely conquer, but man, it's a hell of a work to leave Dorne as a Martel...



1) You should use Stark as a threat that is bound to happen if Greyjoy or Baratheon (wow that is unlikely) do not stop him somewhere before round 7. They could act like the commies in the cold war (wow isn't that funny, Lannister using Stark as a "red" scare) the enemy that is coming to get you, if you do not stop them in their own home!

2) Agreed, Lannister is hard to play, it is however also the house that has the richest area's on the board right on his doorstep. If you play smart (with the Raven) and are able to talk some sense into Greyjoy (or bash some sense into him with Clegane) the rewards are huge. You have a beautifull support hub in Stoney Sept, you are in pole position to hold Blackwater, and you actually have quite nice cards if you play them right.

3) I played Martell just a few times, and won the game once by gunning all out for Tyrell from the start (truth be told he made some mistakes in that game). You have very good house cards, and you just need to fight as soon as you can to be able to prevent the "Southern Stalemate" that would otherwise ensue. Don't forget Baratheon (or Tyrell if you gun for Bara form the start) will think twice before coming to aid, you still have Doran on your hand (or will get him back soon enough....) and Baratheon is happy anyway that he can focus on claiming Blackwater.

These points sum up that I agree with the overall analysis in this thread, Greyjoy + Lannister are natural allies. With one big exception, it does pay of to fight a lot. You just have to win the important ones, and lose the less important ones (taking minimum casulaties). A lot of times the winner in a game where most play defensive, si the one who plays aggressive.

This does not mean to just stupidly attack whenever you can, this means you know what areas are important, and you do not mind to get dirty to get them.

 
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Jørgen K. Engen
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Stastistics don't lie. The only game-changing things I have done is to change some details in the house cards. The Greyjoy vs. Lannister dilemma needed to be fixed on. As long as you play with noobs or players that have played the game only once or twice, you can use the original. As players gets experienced, you will need modifications. Some examples of modifications I have done:

1) Changing the text in Victarion to only be valid in attacking and not supporting
2) Changing the text in Victarion to be valid in ship attacking, but not in land attacks. (The difference between 1 and 2 is that the first one will only be ships attacking where number two is also supporting ships, but never on land attacks).
3) Switching the power of Balon (1) and Asha (2).
4) Giving Cersei Lannister the text ability of either Aeron Damphair (You may discard any number of your available Power tokens to increase the combat strength of this card by the number of Power tokens discarded) or Queen of Thorns (Ignore all text abilities printed on your opponent’s House card) from DWD. These can become more useful in the start game which will help against an aggressive GJ.

Doing all of these changes would make an OP Lannister, so you need to choose.
 
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Aspmyra wrote:
Stastistics don't lie.


Yes they do, because most of the people who play this game don't bother to post here, as evident by the lack of consistent posts here.

While we all agree that Greyjoy can take Riverun in turn one if he wishes to do so, that's not the end of the game for the Lannister player. What you fail to understand is that this game mimics the Game of thrones almost perfectly.

Winning a few battles won't mean anything if you wont win the war. Greyjoy can win at best the first 2 battles against the Lannister player if he goes all aggressive on him.

At this point all the Lannister player has to do is let him play his strong cards, then come from behind with his strong cards and take back what is his. And Lannister is much better at retaliation then Greyjoy since he has a lot of swords at his disposal. (The rains of Castamere!)

Not to mention that if the Greyjoy player is stupid enough to go full force on the Lannister player, he will get butt-fucked by the Stark player cause he wont have an army to defend & the proper cards to defend against him.

Winning this game depends on your ability to bluff other players into doing what you want, there's no op house in this game if all the players understand the game.

 
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Jørgen K. Engen
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Okay, now here's the question. How should Lannister act if GJ gets mustering in first two rounds? GJ takes Riverrun on first run. Lannister musters units to be able to take it back on maybe round 2 or 3. But within that time, Baratheon's choice or a mustering card will give GJ the luxury of mustering in 3/4 castles (where 3 is Strongholds). Either way he will have the chance to outplay Lannisters fleet. Lannister's only stronghold is in danger as GJ is on his doorstep. Again if any mustering comes up, GJ has the advantage. Still hard for Lannister to earn CP while this is going on. Unless he got an alliance with Bara and/or Tyrell he's an easy pick for their strong cards.

I fully agree that GJ is not powerful if 1) Stark attacks immediately or 2) he don't manage to get a firm grip on Lannisters fleet and has full support from Ironmans Bay and Seagard. It is Greyjoys main task to get an early game advantage.

Mustering will always be a pro GJ in the beginning, Clash of Kings will not.
 
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Sebastian van Dalen
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Aspmyra wrote:
Okay, now here's the question. How should Lannister act if GJ gets mustering in first two rounds? GJ takes Riverrun on first run. Lannister musters units to be able to take it back on maybe round 2 or 3. But within that time, Baratheon's choice or a mustering card will give GJ the luxury of mustering in 3/4 castles (where 3 is Strongholds). Either way he will have the chance to outplay Lannisters fleet. Lannister's only stronghold is in danger as GJ is on his doorstep. Again if any mustering comes up, GJ has the advantage. Still hard for Lannister to earn CP while this is going on. Unless he got an alliance with Bara and/or Tyrell he's an easy pick for their strong cards.

I fully agree that GJ is not powerful if 1) Stark attacks immediately or 2) he don't manage to get a firm grip on Lannisters fleet and has full support from Ironmans Bay and Seagard. It is Greyjoys main task to get an early game advantage.

Mustering will always be a pro GJ in the beginning, Clash of Kings will not.


A Baratheon choice to muster when Greyjoy is on 6-7 muster points wrong play, unless Baratheon himself gains a lot (for example he opened aggressive himself and controls someones sea and can fortify his own position).

If Bara opens smart he musters, and chooses nothing happens once the card comes up. Drops muster probability around 40% I thought on turn 2.

As Greyjoy - Lannister alliance you have:

-Both a lot of PT
-A firm grip on the middle of the map (Lannister) keeping Baratheon (Barrel starved) and Tyrell (space starved) weak. Which by default works as a containing force vs Martell.
-A firm early offensive vs Stark, which keeps the Stark player weak towards mid/end game. Which otherwise would be Stark dominated.

 
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Aspmyra wrote:
Okay, now here's the question. How should Lannister act if GJ gets mustering in first two rounds? GJ takes Riverrun on first run. Lannister musters units to be able to take it back on maybe round 2 or 3. But within that time, Baratheon's choice or a mustering card will give GJ the luxury of mustering in 3/4 castles (where 3 is Strongholds). Either way he will have the chance to outplay Lannisters fleet. Lannister's only stronghold is in danger as GJ is on his doorstep. Again if any mustering comes up, GJ has the advantage. Still hard for Lannister to earn CP while this is going on. Unless he got an alliance with Bara and/or Tyrell he's an easy pick for their strong cards.

I fully agree that GJ is not powerful if 1) Stark attacks immediately or 2) he don't manage to get a firm grip on Lannisters fleet and has full support from Ironmans Bay and Seagard. It is Greyjoys main task to get an early game advantage.

Mustering will always be a pro GJ in the beginning, Clash of Kings will not.


I have read this so many times on this forum, but i was to lazy to actually address it with a full detailed post, till now all i've said is: siege engines. Ok so here we go:

Turn 1:

Greyjoy takes Riverun on turn one:

He attacks with: 1 Knight and 1 Footman from Pike, 1 ship( support) from Iron man's bay.

He meets the Lannister garrison of: 1 Knight and 1 footman from Lannister bay, 1 ship(support) from The golden sound.

Grey joy attack power: 4
Lannister attack power: 4.

Greyjoy uses sword, Grejoy attack power becomes 5.
At this point the Lannister player treatments to use his card: Twin Lannister which now gives:

Greyjoy: still 5 on points because he has no card used yet.
Lannister: possible attack power of 8 due to his card.

Greyjoy is obligated to play either: Euron(4 attack) or Balon(2 attack) but nullifies the 4 on Lannister card.

Either way Greyjoy uses one of his strong cards. Lannister bluffs and uses The hound (2 attack power and suffer no casualties if Greyjoy uses Euron)

Turn 2:

Rains of Castemere time: Lannister musters on Lanisport 1 siege engine and 1 knight at Harenhall, and 1 ship in the golden sound.

Lannister will attack first as he stands higher on the throne!<-- this is the key

So he now has to attack riverun: 1 siege engine from Lannisport ( 4 attack power) + 1 knight and 1 footman from the stone sept( 3 attack power), 1 knight from Harenhall(2 attack power), 1 ship from the golden sound(1 attack power).

Lannister total attack power: 10.

Grey can have after mustering to defend riverun: 2 knights at Riverun(4 attack power) , 1 knight at the twins( 2 attack power) 3 ships in Iron man's bay ( 3 power)

Greyjoy's power: 9.

Tokens: Grejoy can get another + 1 attack power if he puts a + 1 defence token > power of 15.
He plays Balon => power of 10, Lannister plays the mountain => 12 power.

Lannister uses the 3 swords to decimate Riverun forces. Easy right? Well not really you have to think a bit in advance and have some games under your belt, but i just showed you how Grejoy can't wipe out the Lannister player, whatever he does.

The only way a player gets wiped out fast is if he is a noob in 1vs1 combat, otherwise you have to play the game of thrones, ally with other players, deceive and so on.






 
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Matteo Angioletti
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Ysgramor wrote:
Aspmyra wrote:
Okay, now here's the question. How should Lannister act if GJ gets mustering in first two rounds? GJ takes Riverrun on first run. Lannister musters units to be able to take it back on maybe round 2 or 3. But within that time, Baratheon's choice or a mustering card will give GJ the luxury of mustering in 3/4 castles (where 3 is Strongholds). Either way he will have the chance to outplay Lannisters fleet. Lannister's only stronghold is in danger as GJ is on his doorstep. Again if any mustering comes up, GJ has the advantage. Still hard for Lannister to earn CP while this is going on. Unless he got an alliance with Bara and/or Tyrell he's an easy pick for their strong cards.

I fully agree that GJ is not powerful if 1) Stark attacks immediately or 2) he don't manage to get a firm grip on Lannisters fleet and has full support from Ironmans Bay and Seagard. It is Greyjoys main task to get an early game advantage.

Mustering will always be a pro GJ in the beginning, Clash of Kings will not.


I have read this so many times on this forum, but i was to lazy to actually address it with a full detailed post, till now all i've said is: siege engines. Ok so here we go:

Turn 1:

Greyjoy takes Riverun on turn one:

He attacks with: 1 Knight and 1 Footman from Pike, 1 ship( support) from Iron man's bay.

He meets the Lannister garrison of: 1 Knight and 1 footman from Lannister bay, 1 ship(support) from The golden sound.

Grey joy attack power: 4
Lannister attack power: 4.

Greyjoy uses sword, Grejoy attack power becomes 5.
At this point the Lannister player treatments to use his card: Twin Lannister which now gives:

Greyjoy: still 5 on points because he has no card used yet.
Lannister: possible attack power of 8 due to his card.

Greyjoy is obligated to play either: Euron(4 attack) or Balon(2 attack) but nullifies the 4 on Lannister card.

Either way Greyjoy uses one of his strong cards. Lannister bluffs and uses The hound (2 attack power and suffer no casualties if Greyjoy uses Euron)

Turn 2:

Rains of Castemere time: Lannister musters on Lanisport 1 siege engine and 1 knight at Harenhall, and 1 ship in the golden sound.

Lannister will attack first as he stands higher on the throne!<-- this is the key

So he now has to attack riverun: 1 siege engine from Lannisport ( 4 attack power) + 1 knight and 1 footman from the stone sept( 3 attack power), 1 knight from Harenhall(2 attack power), 1 ship from the golden sound(1 attack power).

Lannister total attack power: 10.

Grey can have after mustering to defend riverun: 2 knights at Riverun(4 attack power) , 1 knight at the twins( 2 attack power) 3 ships in Iron man's bay ( 3 power)

Greyjoy's power: 9.

Tokens: Grejoy can get another + 1 attack power if he puts a + 1 defence token > power of 15.
He plays Balon => power of 10, Lannister plays the mountain => 12 power.

Lannister uses the 3 swords to decimate Riverun forces. Easy right? Well not really you have to think a bit in advance and have some games under your belt, but i just showed you how Grejoy can't wipe out the Lannister player, whatever he does.

The only way a player gets wiped out fast is if he is a noob in 1vs1 combat, otherwise you have to play the game of thrones, ally with other players, deceive and so on


Please, the issue was debated for very long and the consensus is that Lannister cannot hold Riverrun in Round 2 if Mustering happens and Greyjoy wants it.

In your proposed scenario (in which both Lannister and Greyjoy play badly) Greyjoy could just send only one unit to Riverrun in round 1 and play Damphair to avoid trading Balon for nothing.

Next round if mustering comes, Greyjoy musters 6 and Lannister 3, then if Lannister trows a siege engine into Riverrun, Greyjoy at worst loses 1 unit and gets the Golden Sound and the Sunset Sea. If he still has Balon, he may also counter attack in Riverrun.

 
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Tuzzo90 wrote:
Ysgramor wrote:
Aspmyra wrote:
Okay, now here's the question. How should Lannister act if GJ gets mustering in first two rounds? GJ takes Riverrun on first run. Lannister musters units to be able to take it back on maybe round 2 or 3. But within that time, Baratheon's choice or a mustering card will give GJ the luxury of mustering in 3/4 castles (where 3 is Strongholds). Either way he will have the chance to outplay Lannisters fleet. Lannister's only stronghold is in danger as GJ is on his doorstep. Again if any mustering comes up, GJ has the advantage. Still hard for Lannister to earn CP while this is going on. Unless he got an alliance with Bara and/or Tyrell he's an easy pick for their strong cards.

I fully agree that GJ is not powerful if 1) Stark attacks immediately or 2) he don't manage to get a firm grip on Lannisters fleet and has full support from Ironmans Bay and Seagard. It is Greyjoys main task to get an early game advantage.

Mustering will always be a pro GJ in the beginning, Clash of Kings will not.


I have read this so many times on this forum, but i was to lazy to actually address it with a full detailed post, till now all i've said is: siege engines. Ok so here we go:

Turn 1:

Greyjoy takes Riverun on turn one:

He attacks with: 1 Knight and 1 Footman from Pike, 1 ship( support) from Iron man's bay.

He meets the Lannister garrison of: 1 Knight and 1 footman from Lannister bay, 1 ship(support) from The golden sound.

Grey joy attack power: 4
Lannister attack power: 4.

Greyjoy uses sword, Grejoy attack power becomes 5.
At this point the Lannister player treatments to use his card: Twin Lannister which now gives:

Greyjoy: still 5 on points because he has no card used yet.
Lannister: possible attack power of 8 due to his card.

Greyjoy is obligated to play either: Euron(4 attack) or Balon(2 attack) but nullifies the 4 on Lannister card.

Either way Greyjoy uses one of his strong cards. Lannister bluffs and uses The hound (2 attack power and suffer no casualties if Greyjoy uses Euron)

Turn 2:

Rains of Castemere time: Lannister musters on Lanisport 1 siege engine and 1 knight at Harenhall, and 1 ship in the golden sound.

Lannister will attack first as he stands higher on the throne!<-- this is the key

So he now has to attack riverun: 1 siege engine from Lannisport ( 4 attack power) + 1 knight and 1 footman from the stone sept( 3 attack power), 1 knight from Harenhall(2 attack power), 1 ship from the golden sound(1 attack power).

Lannister total attack power: 10.

Grey can have after mustering to defend riverun: 2 knights at Riverun(4 attack power) , 1 knight at the twins( 2 attack power) 3 ships in Iron man's bay ( 3 power)

Greyjoy's power: 9.

Tokens: Grejoy can get another + 1 attack power if he puts a + 1 defence token > power of 15.
He plays Balon => power of 10, Lannister plays the mountain => 12 power.

Lannister uses the 3 swords to decimate Riverun forces. Easy right? Well not really you have to think a bit in advance and have some games under your belt, but i just showed you how Grejoy can't wipe out the Lannister player, whatever he does.

The only way a player gets wiped out fast is if he is a noob in 1vs1 combat, otherwise you have to play the game of thrones, ally with other players, deceive and so on


Please, the issue was debated for very long and the consensus is that Lannister cannot hold Riverrun in Round 2 if Mustering happens and Greyjoy wants it.

In your proposed scenario (in which both Lannister and Greyjoy play badly) Greyjoy could just send only one unit to Riverrun in round 1 and play Damphair to avoid trading Balon for nothing.

Next round if mustering comes, Greyjoy musters 6 and Lannister 3, then if Lannister trows a siege engine into Riverrun, Greyjoy at worst loses 1 unit and gets the Golden Sound and the Sunset Sea. If he still has Balon, he may also counter attack in Riverrun.



If he sends just 1 unit, then ofc Lannister won't play like i mentioned, this was in a scenario where he sends all of his units.

No he won't lose at worse 1 unit, because he would be using his 6 mustering points like u said. So he will loose all his riverun units.

In either scenario either the one i mentioned, or this one Lanniter keeps riverun and kills all the units available there since Gregor has 3 swords.

Its basic math, you might wanna learn it.

Also btw if he uses Damphair and doesn't play any card above 2 power he will still lose. Because he will have:

1 footman + ship + 1 sword at best, thats 3 power

Lannister has 1 knight, 1 footman + 1 ship = 4 power.

Lannister in case he just send 1 footman to attack him uses Jammie Lannister with 2 power and 1 kill sword.

If the Greyjoy Player doesn't at least use at least a 3 point card he will lose the battle and his unit.
 
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Matteo Angioletti
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Riverrun > Muster 2 ships in Ironman's Bay > still 1 unit in Riverrun

What does Lannister do if Greyjoy sends only 1 unit in Round 1?

I was not condescending in my previous post: the issue was literally debated for pages (you can find the discussions in the forums, search for long threads)

EDIT: can you please specify the orders for Lannister in Round 1?

Greyjoy goes for Support in Ironman's Bay, but please consider also that he could open with March -1
 
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Tuzzo90 wrote:
Riverrun > Muster 2 ships in Ironman's Bay > still 1 unit in Riverrun

What does Lannister do if Greyjoy sends only 1 unit in Round 1?

I was not condescending in my previous post: the issue was literally debated for pages (you can find the discussions in the forums, search for long threads)


See my above post. He holds riverun from turn 1 if he Greyjoy player doesn't lose at least 3 point card.

In which case Grejoy still loses a strong card.
 
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Tuzzo90 wrote:
Riverrun > Muster 2 ships in Ironman's Bay > still 1 unit in Riverrun

What does Lannister do if Greyjoy sends only 1 unit in Round 1?

I was not condescending in my previous post: the issue was literally debated for pages (you can find the discussions in the forums, search for long threads)

EDIT: can you please specify the orders for Lannister in Round 1?

Greyjoy goes for Support in Ironman's Bay, but please consider also that he could open with March -1


Sure thing:

Lannisport + 1 march.
Golden sound + 1 support.
Stoney sept 0 march
 
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Matteo Angioletti
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Ysgramor wrote:
Tuzzo90 wrote:
Riverrun > Muster 2 ships in Ironman's Bay > still 1 unit in Riverrun

What does Lannister do if Greyjoy sends only 1 unit in Round 1?

I was not condescending in my previous post: the issue was literally debated for pages (you can find the discussions in the forums, search for long threads)

EDIT: can you please specify the orders for Lannister in Round 1?

Greyjoy goes for Support in Ironman's Bay, but please consider also that he could open with March -1


Sure thing:

Lannisport + 1 march.
Golden sound + 1 support.
Stoney sept 0 march


Ok, case A Support in Ironman's and March -1 in Greywater, Case B March -1 on Ironman's,

Case A: Gather units in Pike, wait for Lannister to make its second move, then attack Riverrun with the least units possible. If he has switched to a third march in Golden Sound, Greyjoy can still occupy Seagard and Riverrun with 1 unit and go Damphair > Balon/Euron/Victarion or less.

Either way, still 1 unit in Riverrun, Seagard taken and only Damphair + 1 high card lost

Case B: Burn march in Ironmans, then same as Case A, maybe a KN or 2FM in Riverrun (but better against other openings)
 
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Tuzzo90 wrote:
Ysgramor wrote:
Tuzzo90 wrote:
Riverrun > Muster 2 ships in Ironman's Bay > still 1 unit in Riverrun

What does Lannister do if Greyjoy sends only 1 unit in Round 1?

I was not condescending in my previous post: the issue was literally debated for pages (you can find the discussions in the forums, search for long threads)

EDIT: can you please specify the orders for Lannister in Round 1?

Greyjoy goes for Support in Ironman's Bay, but please consider also that he could open with March -1


Sure thing:

Lannisport + 1 march.
Golden sound + 1 support.
Stoney sept 0 march


Ok, case A Support in Ironman's and March -1 in Greywater, Case B March -1 on Ironman's,

Case A: Gather units in Pike, wait for Lannister to make its second move, then attack Riverrun with the least units possible. If he has switched to a third march in Golden Sound, Greyjoy can still occupy Seagard and Riverrun with 1 unit and go Damphair > Balon/Euron/Victarion or less.

Either way, still 1 unit in Riverrun, Seagard taken and only Damphair + 1 high card lost

Case B: Burn march in Ironmans, then same as Case A, maybe a KN or 2FM in Riverrun (but better against other openings)


Can you be a little more clear please?( i'm not joking) but what do you mean by Lannister to make its second move? With the opening i posted Lannister has only one march towards Riverun and that's from Lannisport.

The other march is used towards Harenhall.

I have no quarrels with Greyjoy occupying Seagard, but like you said at this point he looses 2 cards, one of which is a strong card + he holds only two castles not 3.

While Lannister has either lost Jamie or the Hound, both which are not major losses.

Also im not sure what you mean by this: Burn march in Ironmans? Do you mean to put a raid order in the bay?

Whichever way you look at it, at best Greyjoy can hold Riverun for the first turn, which is stupid on his part cause he will loose it in the second and will loose all the units he has posted there as well.

Gregor + higher position on the iron throne guarantees that.( him attacking first like i mentioned before)

This was doesn't benefit no one, but especially it doesn't benefit Greyjoy.


 
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Matteo Angioletti
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I assumed Lannister gathered all its unit in Lannisport with his first march (or better put the March +1* in Stoney Sept and gather there). This is to force Greyjoy to use one movement aswell and possibly have him march first into Riverrun.

Burning a march = using it without moving the units

Seagard + Riverrun + Pike = 6 mustering points against 3, so losing 1 FM or even 2 FM or 1KN into Gregor let Greyjoy have unit advantage.

Greyjoy will maybe lose Riverrun in round 2, but he will just counterattack into it and/or get the Golden Sound in the same round.

Anyway, I'm not saying Lannister is doomed, but Greyjoy still has the upper hand.

The best strategy for experienced Lannisters unfortunately is having Greyjoy understand that a struggle will only help all the other players whoever wins between Greyjoy and Lannister
 
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Tuzzo90 wrote:
I assumed Lannister gathered all its unit in Lannisport with his first march (or better put the March +1* in Stoney Sept and gather there). This is to force Greyjoy to use one movement aswell and possibly have him march first into Riverrun.

Burning a march = using it without moving the units

Seagard + Riverrun + Pike = 6 mustering points against 3, so losing 1 FM or even 2 FM or 1KN into Gregor let Greyjoy have unit advantage.

Greyjoy will maybe lose Riverrun in round 2, but he will just counterattack into it and/or get the Golden Sound in the same round.

Anyway, I'm not saying Lannister is doomed, but Greyjoy still has the upper hand.

The best strategy for experienced Lannisters unfortunately is having Greyjoy understand that a struggle will only help all the other players whoever wins between Greyjoy and Lannister


Thanks for clearing that up, but no that's not what a Lannister should do.

He doesn't need the footman from Stoney Sept, marching him along will just make him not have Harenhall for round 2.

If Lannister opens with:

March + 1 in Lannisport and Support + 1 in the golden sound. He has a total power of 6.

That's more then enough to force Grejoy into losing a high card if he wants to take Riverun in turn one.

If Greyjoy doesn't go for Riverun in turn one, he will have 5 mustering points, and the Lannister player will have 5 as well. (Also Grejoy's mustering from Flints Finger wont matter anyway, so its more like 5vs4 for Lannister in turn 2)

Lannister player is higher on the IT and can go on the offensive, numerous situations present themselves at this point, none in which he loses Riverun if he attacks the Greyjoy player first.

So while i agree that a war between this two houses early doesn't benefit anyone, i don't agree at all that Greyjoy can hold Riverun for more then the first turn. ( mathematically impossible, as long as the Lannister player like i keep mentioned goes on the attack the second he looses Riverun in turn one with siege engines + Gregor)

 
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