Recommend
9 
 Thumb up
 Hide
8 Posts

Star Realms» Forums » Strategy

Subject: Analysis of player win % by level rss

Your Tags: Add tags
Popular Tags: [View All]
T K
United States
Minnesota
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
We've all seen certain plateaus players get to, as they learn different facets of the game. Moving from buying only one color, to learning a certain strategy that leverages bases or draws or scrap, to understanding the pace of that particular game and adjusting on the fly, leveraging any strategy necessary to tip the odds in your favor.

I wondered if the data reflected that progression, and leveraged the prostarrealms.com website to do some analysis.

The following chart is a heat map, showing the number of people for any given level and win %. Clusters appear to form, showing the progression mentioned above in their capabilities. Starting out, people tend to lose more than they win. Around level 7, that appears to even out, as people progress to using more than 1 color. Around level 10 or a little more, it gets to about the 53% range, when players start learning broader strategies. And finally, over level 20 appears to be closer to 58%, and seems to level off around there as the midpoint, though as the 30s and higher are hit, it is more common for 60+% win rates to be achieved.


10 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
David Low
Australia
Canberra BC
ACT
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Nice work!

As a side note, looking through the source website threw up a few head-shaking results. If you look under "In-game ranks" and then "Win-% Ranks", there are quite a few players with a decent number of games and very high win-%'s. Standout being "TheLegend", with a 119-0 win-loss record surprise

What I found out about myself was that I once hit 108th in the monthly stats...now I'm annoyed that I didn't realise, and play one more game to try to get the Monthly Top-100 avatar zombie
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Brian Baier
United States
Grand Forks
North Dakota
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
I might think it were neat that I landed smack dab in the middle of that chart if it weren't also a marvelous representation of the center of gravity I can't seem to escape.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
T K
United States
Minnesota
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
dlow wrote:
Standout being "TheLegend", with a 119-0 win-loss record surprise


Yep, I saw that one too. It does track all games, not just games that count towards your lifetime stats. That one specifically still jumped out. I'm assuming it's a person with 2 accounts, and they are having the one account always win.

I believe this is reflected a bit differently in the chart. Around level 11, playing all the games against your friends that stink at it, stops helping you improve your level. So you notice percentages coming back to reality soon after that.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Scott Heise
United States
San Jose
California
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
kamarainen wrote:
Clusters appear to form, showing the progression mentioned above in their capabilities. Starting out, people tend to lose more than they win. Around level 7, that appears to even out, as people progress to using more than 1 color. Around level 10 or a little more, it gets to about the 53% range, when players start learning broader strategies.


I think the preponderance of <50% win rates at low levels may be due to players dropping the game due to a lack of success. Many of those players may no longer be active. While skill progression is part of the story, it's a contradiction to have a >50% win rate and be low level as you naturally will gain levels if you win games. This is why you don't see very many players being <lvl 10 with a >60% win rate, for example.
3 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Carl P (Chazzmo)
United States
Garnet Valley
Pennsylvania
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
I've tried repeatedly challenging TheLegend, because we know he's gotta be a fraud, and he never accepts. Weak.


Chazzmo
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
T K
United States
Minnesota
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
HomerJr wrote:
kamarainen wrote:
Clusters appear to form, showing the progression mentioned above in their capabilities. Starting out, people tend to lose more than they win. Around level 7, that appears to even out, as people progress to using more than 1 color. Around level 10 or a little more, it gets to about the 53% range, when players start learning broader strategies.


I think the preponderance of <50% win rates at low levels may be due to players dropping the game due to a lack of success. Many of those players may no longer be active. While skill progression is part of the story, it's a contradiction to have a >50% win rate and be low level as you naturally will gain levels if you win games. This is why you don't see very many players being <lvl 10 with a >60% win rate, for example.


It appears to be a mix of that plus players who have a rough start then figure it out and take a bit to get their average back up plus people that aren't dropping star realms (yet), but they let their games time out. The last group is inferred from my play with them and the stats I pull on them from prostarrealms.

But, I would agree that a significant chunk of the ~1k players at level 5 and < 40% win rate, are players that got to level 5, struggled to move up and decided to quit. They wouldn't disappear from the stats, so that bucket will continue to grow.

 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Alex Klemp
United States
Pennsylvania
flag msg tools
Loading... 76%
badge
I am Jackson, hear me roar! *meow*
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Awesome job, kamarainen. Nice to see it visually.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Front Page | Welcome | Contact | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertise | Support BGG | Feeds RSS
Geekdo, BoardGameGeek, the Geekdo logo, and the BoardGameGeek logo are trademarks of BoardGameGeek, LLC.