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Subject: GeRBIL Rating System rss

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Ryan Opp
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Greeley
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Okay, in another thread (https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/1615637/some-bgg-ratings-ar...), I posted that I thought the BGG Rating system had gotten so bogged down with extra modifiers that it was no longer consistent, mathematically sound, and relevant. I got lots of flack for it, but nonetheless, I think a simpler system is valuable to all of us.

So I'm going to consistently post what I call the GeRBIL ranking system here in this thread of ALL of the ranked board games. GeRBIL stands for "Geek Rating Brought Into Line," which is exactly what it is. This is the closest approximation of what the BGG Ratings are doing anyway, that is based solely on two factors: the Average User Rating, and the Number of Votes.

At the end of this post there will be a Google Document Spreadsheet link that will contain the numbers I have crunched. I will update this weekly, probably on Sunday. You may find this useful to see how a decluttered rating system compares with the cryptic, secret, difficult-to-comprehend system in place now.

If you have a relevant comment on the ratings this week, the formula, etc., feel free to post it here. If you hate the system, or care to insult my intelligence, morals, personal hygiene, what have you, why don't you put it in the first post I mentioned at the top where there is already plenty of that?

Here is the Google Drive folder with the relevant documents. I recommend you download the actual spreadsheet to your own computer so you can easily sort it by various criteria in your own spreadsheet program. There are a lot of things to ponder that way.

https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0B4xEGx0Lfx0-akRxUDJa...
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Trent DePonte
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I'm in if the rating system is 1-10 sphincters.
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Ryan Opp
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Greeley
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Well, it's Sunday, August 14, 2016, so time to update the rating system. I've made it much easier to read now, getting all the columns on one page. The graphs are overlayed now so you can see the direct correlation, and the column headers are frozen so you can scroll down the list further. I still recommend that you download the file to your own spreadsheet program so you can sort by the column of interest.

Top offended games this week are still Kingdom Death Monster (74%), Bruti (60%), and Risk (53%). The average game is off by 6.138% of its rank.
 
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Ryan Opp
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Greeley
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Here is an update: Monday, August 29, 2016.

Last week, Twilight Struggle and Through the Ages finally swapped places. Was this because of the final straw breaking down? Nope. It was a formula change, specifically bringing down the Midpoint Value some, which, though this is an arbitrary number, should probably actually be slowly rising as the system gets more votes. In simpler terms, user rating just got more powerful compared to number of votes, but only on a few games in the upper echelon. If this appears to be a permanent change, and I am to continue trying to keep the GeRBIL and Geek top 6 as close to the same as possible, I'll change the formula next week, too. But things are just getting more wonky, as I used to be able to keep the top 7 together, and there is no math to support that now.

Anyway, besides that story, there are other problems. Kingdom Death Monster still tops the list, but check out Scythe, now. With all the hype, it was just a matter of time till the anti-shilling magic came out in force. Well, Scythe should be #14 now, not #19, which is over a quarter of its rank in error (because anti-shilling is redundant in the math system). By the new rules that makes user rating even more powerful, that number could be even more inconsistent.

So, my work has been criticized as not being relevant because the big anomalies are hidden among the more stable entries. So here is a relevant list of anomalies. They are only games from the top-ranked 500 that have at least 10% of their ranking in error. That should be fairly relevant.




Game GeRBIL Geek Change Importance

Kingdom Death: Monster 56 212 156 73.585%
Star Wars: Rebellion 7 11 4 36.364%
Star Trek: Attack Wing 434 674 240 35.608%
Twilight Struggle 2 3 1 33.333%
Through the Ages:
A New Story of Civilization 3 2 -1 33.333%
The Castles of Burgundy 12 8 -4 33.333%
Through the Ages:
A Story of Civilization 13 9 -4 30.769%
Scythe 14 19 5 26.316%
Mansions of Madness:
Second Edition 286 387 101 26.098%
Catan 155 207 52 25.121%
Zombicide: Black Plague 116 153 37 24.183%
Legendary:
A Marvel Deck Building Game 82 105 23 21.905%
Ashes: Rise of the Phoenixborn 222 279 57 20.430%
Arkham Horror 133 167 34 20.359%
Star Wars:
X-Wing Miniatures Game 32 40 8 20.000%
Betrayal at House on the Hill 280 348 68 19.540%
Mage Wars Arena 60 73 13 17.808%
Shadows of Brimstone:
City of the Ancients 200 243 43 17.695%
Time's Up! Title Recall! 279 230 -49 17.563%
A Game of Thrones:
The Board Game (Second Edition) 48 58 10 17.241%
Antiquity 210 174 -36 17.143%
HeroQuest 438 527 89 16.888%
Puerto Rico 5 6 1 16.667%
Caverna: The Cave Farmers 6 5 -1 16.667%
Mage Knight Board Game 10 12 2 16.667%
Android: Netrunner 15 18 3 16.667%
Eclipse 18 15 -3 16.667%
Descent: Journeys
in the Dark (Second Edition) 46 55 9 16.364%
Sekigahara:
The Unification of Japan 190 159 -31 16.316%
La Granja 105 88 -17 16.190%
Chess 304 362 58 16.022%
Battlestar Galactica 37 44 7 15.909%
Zombicide 185 220 35 15.909%
Power Grid 19 16 -3 15.789%
Dominant Species 38 32 -6 15.789%
Star Wars: Imperial Assault 11 13 2 15.385%
Ora et Labora 72 61 -11 15.278%
Maria 211 179 -32 15.166%
Diplomacy 359 423 64 15.130%
Go 73 86 13 15.116%
Crokinole 67 57 -10 14.925%
Lords of Waterdeep 35 41 6 14.634%
Fields of Arle 62 53 -9 14.516%
Last Night on Earth:
The Zombie Game 355 414 59 14.251%
Carcassonne 104 121 17 14.050%
Firefly: The Game 206 239 33 13.808%
Indonesia 223 193 -30 13.453%
Power Grid deluxe:
Europe/North America 186 161 -25 13.441%
Roads & Boats 217 188 -29 13.364%
Hansa Teutonica 100 87 -13 13.000%
Combat Commander: Pacific 311 271 -40 12.862%
Roll for the Galaxy 39 34 -5 12.821%
Paths of Glory 78 68 -10 12.821%
Agricola 8 7 -1 12.500%
War of the Ring
(second edition) 16 14 -2 12.500%
Heroscape Master Set:
Rise of the Valkyrie 189 216 27 12.500%
Warhammer Quest:
The Adventure Card Game 254 290 36 12.414%
Cthulhu Wars 191 218 27 12.385%
Dead of Winter:
A Crossroads Game 22 25 3 12.000%
Brass 25 22 -3 12.000%
The Voyages of Marco Polo 34 30 -4 11.765%
The Lord of the Rings:
The Card Game 75 85 10 11.765%
1989: Dawn of Freedom 292 258 -34 11.644%
StarCraft: The Board Game 244 276 32 11.594%
Warhammer Quest 481 544 63 11.581%
Napoleon's Triumph 285 252 -33 11.579%
Descent: Journeys in the Dark 177 200 23 11.500%
Orleans 44 39 -5 11.364%
Here I Stand 125 111 -14 11.200%
Gears of War: The Board Game 239 269 30 11.152%
Advanced Squad Leader 130 146 16 10.959%
Dungeons & Dragons:
The Legend of Drizzt Board Game 303 340 37 10.882%
Magic: The Gathering 122 136 14 10.294%
Mansions of Madness 157 175 18 10.286%
Blood Bowl (Third Edition) 175 195 20 10.256%
Citadels 228 254 26 10.236%
Smash Up 431 480 49 10.208%
Bruges 159 143 -16 10.063%
7 Wonders: Duel 9 10 1 10.000%
Keyflower 30 27 -3 10.000%
El Grande 40 36 -4 10.000%
Food Chain Magnate 50 45 -5 10.000%
Navegador 140 126 -14 10.000%
 
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Ryan Opp
United States
Greeley
Colorado
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Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Well, due to technical difficulties, I haven't updated this in a while. Today is the day to do it. The Through the Ages overtake of Twilight Struggle now corresponds to my data which is good that we can match the top four.

In other news: the highly-popular Scythe should be #9, not #13. Hooray for entering the top ten. Again, I have no dog in this fight, and the whole point of this is to interpret the data consistently, ignoring shills and anti-shills because of the Law of Large numbers which is simulated by Beyesian averaging. So, therefore, objectively, I am happy for Scythe.

I have deleted the older weeks of the chart from the drive, as this caused lagging and bad load times and all sorts of errors because these are BIG sheets. If you want old data, send me a message.
 
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