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Subject: fivethirtyeight... Clinton landslide possible rss

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Mac Mcleod
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide...

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Chief Slovenly
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Eh, I think those are long odds.

Closer odds might be 12 points or so, maybe 13 or 14 if Trump manages to do the completely impossible and shit himself at the debates -- which he actually needs now more than Clinton does.

I notice that Priebus is trying to have him on a short leash; he's showing up with Trump at rallies in FL, trying to keep him from lashing out too much. (Promises of juice boxes and withholding of screen time tends to work pretty well, Reince.)

All of us know, though, that it's only a matter of time.
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Trey Chambers
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I just don't see it. I feel like we're so polarized our election maps will continue to look very similar for many elections to come. I definitely think Hillary is winning, as of now, but even with her current margin I would expect a repeat of the Obama 2008 or 2012 map at best.
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No belief that the Trump campaign is this toxic and that voters everywhere will take note of it and vote accordingly?

I had Trump winning the nomination from weeks before the primaries even began largely because he was so caustic and unapologetic. I'll admit that since then, he has surprised me. I thought that he'd tone it down a notch (but only a notch) and focus his attacks on Hillary Clinton, who is an easy target. Instead, he's continued to attack anyone who dares question him, including fellow Republicans. Instead of concentrating on the opposition, he seems to be doing his level best to turn everyone into the opposition regardless of party or position.

He really can't control his mouth, and I expect we'll hear a continuous stream of outrageous statements between now and the election. At some point, he's got to lose everyone outside the rabid few who form the inner core of his support.

Yes, a Clinton landslide is becoming a distinct possibility. Given Trump's irresponsible comments about rigged systems and stolen elections, it could be more than that. It could be an imperative for Clinton to win so big that "the rabid few" will crawl back into their holes and disappear.

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Trey Chambers
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SPIGuy wrote:
No belief that the Trump campaign is this toxic and that voters everywhere will take note of it and vote accordingly?

I had Trump winning the nomination from weeks before the primaries even began largely because he was so caustic and unapologetic. I'll admit that since then, he has surprised me. I thought that he'd tone it down a notch (but only a notch) and focus his attacks on Hillary Clinton, who is an easy target. Instead, he's continued to attack anyone who dares question him, including fellow Republicans. Instead of concentrating on the opposition, he seems to be doing his level best to turn everyone into the opposition regardless of party or position.

He really can't control his mouth, and I expect we'll hear a continuous stream of outrageous statements between now and the election. At some point, he's got to lose everyone outside the rabid few who form the inner core of his support.

Yes, a Clinton landslide is becoming a distinct possibility. Given Trump's irresponsible comments about rigged systems and stolen elections, it could be more than that. It could be an imperative for Clinton to win so big that "the rabid few" will crawl back into their holes and disappear.



I think turning Arizona and/or Georgia in addition to winning all the swing states would be as close to a landslide as she can hope for.

Definitely don't see the map being as blue as the example. But I suppose we will see.
 
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Mac Mcleod
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It's the most extreme of the three possible landslide scenarios.

I was on my phone and it's hard to link them.



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Based upon my poor understanding of history, science, and ethics...
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Trump only has a 5% chance of being nominated. Haven't you been following the news?
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Seth Brown
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But what if the Clinton-haters do manage to vote Trump into office? This is also possible:
Scenario 4: Trump wins everything
How the Electoral College would look if Trump won the popular vote by 100 percentage points over Clinton:
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Based upon my poor understanding of history, science, and ethics...
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Osirus wrote:
But what if the Clinton-haters do manage to vote Trump into office? This is also possible:
Scenario 4: Trump wins everything
How the Electoral College would look if Trump won the popular vote by 100 percentage points over Clinton:


Illinois would still be blue.
 
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Mac Mcleod
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Osirus wrote:
But what if the Clinton-haters do manage to vote Trump into office? This is also possible:
Scenario 4: Trump wins everything
How the Electoral College would look if Trump won the popular vote by 100 percentage points over Clinton:


I take it the swirls are storms of flames from nuclear strikes or hell on earth?

Also... the other scenarios might actually happen..
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Koldfoot wrote:
Illinois Minnesota would still be blue.


FTFY

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Richard Keiser

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Trump nabs West Virginia for 5 and shits the bed in all other states.

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Mac Mcleod
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Latest 538 projection

Hillary 87.8% likely to win.

Electoral votes

Hillary Clinton 361.1

Popular vote

Hillary Clinton 49.0%


It does look like Hillary Clinton's upward momentum in likelihood to win is flattening out.
 
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Trey Chambers
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maxo-texas wrote:
Latest 538 projection

Hillary 87.8% likely to win.

Electoral votes

Hillary Clinton 361.1

Popular vote

Hillary Clinton 49.0%


It does look like Hillary Clinton's upward momentum in likelihood to win is flattening out.


I don't think she could do any better if Trump was caught on camera praying to Satan. literally about 30% of the country will vote for any R or D as long as the right letter is next to their name. What else could Trump possibly do that he hasn't already done?
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Chief Slovenly
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Shampoo4you wrote:
maxo-texas wrote:
Latest 538 projection

Hillary 87.8% likely to win.

Electoral votes

Hillary Clinton 361.1

Popular vote

Hillary Clinton 49.0%


It does look like Hillary Clinton's upward momentum in likelihood to win is flattening out.


I don't think she could do any better if Trump was caught on camera praying to Satan. literally about 30% of the country will vote for any R or D as long as the right letter is next to their name. What else could Trump possibly do that he hasn't already done?


You're seriously asking this question of The Toddler Who Needs Attention Candidate?

The man dreams up entirely new ways to suck every day. He's the goddamn Mozart of how to be a complete shitbird. 2-3 months more is plenty of time to write his magnum opus in feces on the wall.

We haven't had the debates yet. Let that sink in your imagination for a while. ("You didn't call out any Jews for 5 whole seconds! Now we're back up on top by 1 point in Georgia! Keep it up, Donald!")
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Mac Mcleod
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also interesting...
some insight into trump's tax returns.



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Oldies but Goodies ... Avalon Hill and
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MTV News? There is such a thing?

 
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Chief Slovenly
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Um. HOLY SHIT. (Something I say way too often in 2016: "Well, that's a new low.")

Something I didn't know here: Manafort was trying to prop up the Marcos regime back in the day. Fun!

As long as we're siccing the FBI on people, why not send it after the Trump campaign based on some rather obvious security concerns?

Because wow, this frigging guy.

Betsy Woodruff wrote:
But over the years, they made millions by representing a rogue’s gallery of clients far away from D.C.’s genteel corridors of power: dictators, guerilla groups, and despots with no regard for human rights—including one man responsible for mass amputations, and another who oversaw state-sanctioned rape.


So which arm is the one you use the most? Just make sure the other one's waving at Donald J. Trump!


Edit: yes, it's the NYT.
Yes - it's also blood in the water. And Trump has been fairly shitty about calling out journalists in front of his deranged supporters to the point that some reporters have had to get Secret Service protection out of his own damn rallies.
Even though Trump's win percentage stands at around 10% on 538, I'm now thinking it can get even lower. He's the most amazing candidate I've ever seen in my lifetime.
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J
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But Hillary!
 
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Ron Preisach
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Koldfoot wrote:
Trump only has a 5% chance of being nominated. Haven't you been following the news?


Don't you mean Joe Biden?
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Michael Tagge
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SPIGuy wrote:
No belief that the Trump campaign is this toxic and that voters everywhere will take note of it and vote accordingly?

I had Trump winning the nomination from weeks before the primaries even began largely because he was so caustic and unapologetic. I'll admit that since then, he has surprised me. I thought that he'd tone it down a notch (but only a notch) and focus his attacks on Hillary Clinton, who is an easy target. Instead, he's continued to attack anyone who dares question him, including fellow Republicans. Instead of concentrating on the opposition, he seems to be doing his level best to turn everyone into the opposition regardless of party or position.

He really can't control his mouth, and I expect we'll hear a continuous stream of outrageous statements between now and the election. At some point, he's got to lose everyone outside the rabid few who form the inner core of his support.

Yes, a Clinton landslide is becoming a distinct possibility. Given Trump's irresponsible comments about rigged systems and stolen elections, it could be more than that. It could be an imperative for Clinton to win so big that "the rabid few" will crawl back into their holes and disappear.

+1 on this. It really was Trumps election if he just managed to buckle down after the convention and turn his gaze to Clinton (and focused like a laser on her health issues). At this point he is just like a poor sport who makes bad moves rather than concede. The GOP bowed down and proceeded to back him. Then he goes straight to attacking military vets. WTF man?
 
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Chris B
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mtagge wrote:
SPIGuy wrote:
No belief that the Trump campaign is this toxic and that voters everywhere will take note of it and vote accordingly?

I had Trump winning the nomination from weeks before the primaries even began largely because he was so caustic and unapologetic. I'll admit that since then, he has surprised me. I thought that he'd tone it down a notch (but only a notch) and focus his attacks on Hillary Clinton, who is an easy target. Instead, he's continued to attack anyone who dares question him, including fellow Republicans. Instead of concentrating on the opposition, he seems to be doing his level best to turn everyone into the opposition regardless of party or position.

He really can't control his mouth, and I expect we'll hear a continuous stream of outrageous statements between now and the election. At some point, he's got to lose everyone outside the rabid few who form the inner core of his support.

Yes, a Clinton landslide is becoming a distinct possibility. Given Trump's irresponsible comments about rigged systems and stolen elections, it could be more than that. It could be an imperative for Clinton to win so big that "the rabid few" will crawl back into their holes and disappear.

+1 on this. It really was Trumps election if he just managed to buckle down after the convention and turn his gaze to Clinton (and focused like a laser on her health issues). At this point he is just like a poor sport who makes bad moves rather than concede. The GOP bowed down and proceeded to back him. Then he goes straight to attacking military vets. WTF man?


This was never Trump's Election. The electoral college favors the Dems because you can't gerrymander state lines, and this is a problem the pubs will face for years going forward, they will probably still dominate local elections because they've (get this) 'rigged' them so they can win.

Couple that with the fact that you have a successful and popular democratic president mean this was probably always going to be a dem landslide. Whether it was Hillary or Bernie.
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Chris R.
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Anything is possible, I suppose...
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J
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sikeospi wrote:


Anything is possible, I suppose...

From the same poll I believe:

 
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J
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But again: single polls are worse than useless as they can be very misleading.
 
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