$60.00
$20.00
Mac Mcleod
United States
houston
Texas
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-doubling-down-o...

First... WOOT! My swag in another thread is validated.

Quote:

Donald Trump claimed 45 percent of the vote in Republican primaries and caucuses this year, about 14 million votes.


Quote:

Trump is helped by the fact that Hillary Clinton might be the second-most-unpopular nominee ever, after Trump. But still, remarkably few Americans are willing to commit to voting for Trump. In the table below, I’ve listed every poll from a 2012 swing state1 taken since the conventions. On average, Trump has just 37 percent of the vote in these polls (Clinton has 44 percent). That puts him on par with Barry Goldwater and George McGovern, who each got 38 percent of the vote in their respective landslide defeats of 1964 and 1972.


Quote:

But rather than make a much-expected “pivot” toward general election voters — as Manafort had reportedly been pushing for — the new plan is to “let Trump be Trump,” doubling down on the strategies that Trump used to win the nomination, including an emphasis on nationalism, populism and “brutal fights with Clinton”:

Huge rallies. Gloves off. Brutal fights with Clinton. Heavy emphasis on nationalism and populism. That's the Bannon strategy.

— Robert Costa (@costareports) August 17, 2016

If you trust the polls, this seems like a fundamental strategic error.


Quote:

What’s more, Trump already doubled down on Trumpism at the Republican convention, with a disorganized program and gloomy acceptance speech full of nationalist and populist themes. The result was a convention that left most voters with a worse impression of Trump and the Republican Party. Clinton went from having roughly a 3 percentage point lead just before the conventions to more like a 7 or 8 point lead just afterward, and her advantage has held roughly steady ever since. August is still too soon to declare any presidential campaign over. But Trump and his acolytes seem to be in profound denial about the narrowness of their appeal.


But wow look at this
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?...

While still running 88.5/11.4, the chance for a clinton landslide has gone up a lot since last week.

Clinton landslide double-digit popular vote margin 39.4%
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mac Mcleod
United States
houston
Texas
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
http://election.princeton.edu/

In state polls, Clinton running 5.8 percentage points ahead of Obama 2012

Obama's approval continues to soar


http://www.270towin.com/maps/princeton-election-consortium

Clinton showing a most likely outcome of 341 to 191.

Arizona, Misouri, South Carolina, Mississipi, and Georgia are all in play now. The lastest polls show Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio have now softened from red to tossup and may be in play.

What does this mean?

GET OUT THE VOTE.

Trump could still win. All of these gains could evaporate by election day.

2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
J.D. Hall
msg tools
I'm starting to wonder if Trump isn't as separated from the Republican Party's mindset as we think. After every (losing) election, the Republicans seem to come to the consensus that they lost because their candidate (for president) wasn't CONSERVATIVE ENOUGH! Nationalism, xenophobia, etc. are enough in line with true conservatism (as defined by some with influence in the GOP) that maybe this was the deal struck: Trump would get the nom without a floor fight, and in return, he would run the kind of campaign the neo-cons wanted but Romney and McCain refused to carry out.

In this election, who the hell knows? Still, a most fascinating detour in American politics.
6 
 Thumb up
0.05
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mike Stiles
United States
California
flag msg tools
Shaman
mbmbmb
remorseless1 wrote:
I'm starting to wonder if Trump isn't as separated from the Republican Party's mindset as we think. After every (losing) election, the Republicans seem to come to the consensus that they lost because their candidate (for president) wasn't CONSERVATIVE ENOUGH! Nationalism, xenophobia, etc. are enough in line with true conservatism (as defined by some with influence in the GOP) that maybe this was the deal struck: Trump would get the nom without a floor fight, and in return, he would run the kind of campaign the neo-cons wanted but Romney and McCain refused to carry out.

In this election, who the hell knows? Still, a most fascinating detour in American politics.


That's a bit of a misuse of 'neocon' who tended to be internationalist and relatively socially liberal.

~~~

That said, it jibes with my theory -- that the GOP brain trust decided, "Ok, this is what you wanted?! FINE!"

The more Trump craters the more leverage the old guard will have to pull the party back from the Tea Party
3 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Shawn Fox
United States
Richardson
Texas
flag msg tools
Question everything.
mbmbmbmbmb
Not to mention that the economy is accelerating. Things are looking bleak for the Republicans although I'm sure they are still hoping we get a terrorist attack to trigger another big recession. Sort of a double whammy in their favor, but I'm not even sure that woudl save them when Trump has the ball and keeps scoring own goals.
3 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Chief Slovenly
United States
Burlington
Massachusetts
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
sfox wrote:
Trump has the ball and keeps scoring own goals.


KING ME YOU LOSERS.

I'm the best player the NFL has ever seen. Seriously, they called me about it and awarded me the MVP. Look at how many goals I've scored in this one game within the last 15 minutes, and then tell me Crooked Hillary Clinton can score as many goals. You can't. The only way Crooked Hillary Clinton could score as many goals as I could is if she cheated, folks.
4 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Rebecca Carpenter
United States
Seattle
Washington
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
There are valid criticisms of the Obama administration, but it's hard to deny that Obama hasn't led America into prosperous times (relative to other countries, GDP downward trend is a long-term concern of mine). Obama is young, and has made decisions that he knows have lasting impact that he and his young family will have to live with a long time. Dude tried his best, and his legacy will be of one of the nation's greatest presidents.

So when Trump and other politicians base their platforms on the terrible direction our nation is heading, I'm bewildered. Who believes that shtick? Could they not come up with something better?

This week on Marketplace, David R. Malpass, a Trump financial advisor, said, "I think they haven't been making good decisions in the current administration and we need a better one." His entire interview was lackluster, failing to prove that Trump has an economic policy at all except for tax cuts for the wealthy, which of course he denied.

Who constitutes the Republican party now anyways? Just social conservatives? We have three decades of proof that Democrat financial policies are better for business. I'm thinking that current Dems will become the conservative party, a more progressive party will emerge, and Republicans will keep rooted in the bible belt, withering on their vines of vitriol.



6 
 Thumb up
0.05
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Tom McVey
United States
SF Bay Area
California
flag msg tools
mbmbmb
CoffeeRunner wrote:

This week on Marketplace, David R. Malpass, a Trump financial advisor, said, "I think they haven't been making good decisions in the current administration and we need a better one." His entire interview was lackluster, failing to prove that Trump has an economic policy at all except for tax cuts for the wealthy, which of course he denied.


Heard the same interview and Malpass definitely is a C-lister. He was described as an economist but doesn't have an economics degree (he's got an MBA).
4 
 Thumb up
0.05
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mac Mcleod
United States
houston
Texas
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?...
Clinton Win 85.7
Trump Win 14.2
Clinton landslide double-digit popular vote margin 33.5% (Down 3%)

Is the softness voter fatigue or is the teleprompter Trump being forgiven that quickly?

Trump's stopped tweeting about polls



 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
J
United States
Lexington
Kentucky
flag msg tools
admin
mbmbmbmbmb
maxo-texas wrote:
Is the softness voter fatigue or is the teleprompter Trump being forgiven that quickly?

Any change from Trump's "pivot" won't yet be reflected in the polls and I believe that small of a change would be within the MOE.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Front Page | Welcome | Contact | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertise | Support BGG | Feeds RSS
Geekdo, BoardGameGeek, the Geekdo logo, and the BoardGameGeek logo are trademarks of BoardGameGeek, LLC.