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Subject: On Polls and the shifting Media power rss

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Chris Binkowski
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I make it no secret that I'm skeptical of the current polling situation: polls can always serve your narrative, because if you dislike a poll result you can just not mention it. Also, the way media and news is being shared has drastically changed:





 
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Wendell
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Looks like a pretty legit argument.
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Boaty McBoatface
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Well it's easy enough, in November we will know.
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Lone Locust of the Apocalypse
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That wasn't pretty legit enough to sit through...it was boring.

and it was even more boring than watching a video pretending to be a video about something really boring.
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J
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This is just a repeat of the "unskewed polls" argument that was shown false in the past.
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Josh
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Molyneux has a history of talking up nothing much in videogames, I can't imagine he's changed his tune.
 
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Jeff Brown
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I guess we will find out in November if the polls are accurate or not.

Four years ago there were a lot of conservatives who believed that the polls were biased against Romney. Many were expecting a win in November up until the day of the election. Many were shocked that the polls were not biased and that the polls accurately predicted that Romney would lose.

Fool me once....

You mention polls can serve a narrative, are you sure that your distrust of them isn't just to serve yours?

But I guess we will see in November for sure. Of course who knows what will happen between now and then.

I find it interesting that Donald Trump used to talk about polls a lot and put a lot of stock in them until recently....
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Wendell
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Mitchell's the guy who tweeted, "Imagine polls don't exist. Show me evidence Hillary is winning?"

Otherwise, he sounds much like the unskewing guy in 2012. And the delusion that crowds at rallies means WINNING! Even Dana Perino (ex-GW Bush spokesperson) was giving one of the other drones on Fox flack for assuming the polls were systematically skewed against Trump.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/17/meet-trump-...
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R. Frazier
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Guys it goes way deeper than this - I mean what if it's all like a left wing SIMULATION man, I mean what if there's a conspiracy that makes being nice to gays and not hating mexicans and muslims SEEM like the right, moral thing to do when in reality we're like in a big MACHINE with WIRES hooked up to our head while under the tyranical opression of the GAY MUSLIM MEXICAN ROBOTS.

also they are totally faking those polls. Fuck those robots.
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Mike Stiles
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You want to make a statistician mad, start talking bout 'unskewing'.

I love it because it's a theme.

Romney's people did it in 2012 - and the polls ended up being totally predictive

Then Sander's people did it earlier this year, and with the glaring exception of one state, the polls were totally predictive.

Now it's Trump's turn to unskew. I'm sure this time the problem is real.
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Mike Stiles
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wifwendell wrote:
Mitchell's the guy who tweeted, "Imagine polls don't exist. Show me evidence Hillary is winning?"

Otherwise, he sounds much like the unskewing guy in 2012. And the delusion that crowds at rallies means WINNING! Even Dana Perino (ex-GW Bush spokesperson) was giving one of the other drones on Fox flack for assuming the polls were systematically skewed against Trump.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/17/meet-trump-...


damn you beat me; in a similar vein...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whos-behind-a-mysterious...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-arent-skewed-t...

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Oldies but Goodies ... Avalon Hill and
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Polls are too sciency and statisticalistic for the average Trump voter.

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Wendell
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I listened to a few minutes of it. Was quite amused to hear him cite a 500% increase in support for Trump among blacks.

That means Ben Carson got four family members to agree to vote Trump.
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Boaty McBoatface
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wifwendell wrote:
I listened to a few minutes of it. Was quite amused to hear him cite a 500% increase in support for Trump among blacks.

That means Ben Carson got four family members to agree to vote Trump.
To be fair, 1 to 500 is a 500% increase.
 
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J
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slatersteven wrote:
wifwendell wrote:
I listened to a few minutes of it. Was quite amused to hear him cite a 500% increase in support for Trump among blacks.

That means Ben Carson got four family members to agree to vote Trump.
To be fair, 1 to 500 is a 500% increase.

no, that's a 49,900% increase, 1 - 6 is 500% increase
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Damian
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slatersteven wrote:
wifwendell wrote:
I listened to a few minutes of it. Was quite amused to hear him cite a 500% increase in support for Trump among blacks.

That means Ben Carson got four family members to agree to vote Trump.
To be fair, 1 to 500 is a 500% increase.

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Chief Slovenly
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When all fact-checkers are in the leftist conspiracy, and all polls are part of the leftist conspiracy... hm... carry the 2...

Clearly the answer is that there are no facts anymore (well, not super-biased Leftist Math Facts anyway), Trump is president, and... Timecube.

And Lizard People.
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Chief Slovenly
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Altair IV wrote:
That wasn't pretty legit enough to sit through...it was boring.

and it was even more boring than watching a video pretending to be a video about something really boring.


TP;DW

Too painful, didn't watch
 
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J
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reality itself seems to have a left leaning bias
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Mike Stiles
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jmilum wrote:
reality itself seems to have a left leaning bias


Well the right has built its entire structure on denying reality (evolution, climate change, polls, etc.), reality is just getting it's own back.
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Boaty McBoatface
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jmilum wrote:
slatersteven wrote:
wifwendell wrote:
I listened to a few minutes of it. Was quite amused to hear him cite a 500% increase in support for Trump among blacks.

That means Ben Carson got four family members to agree to vote Trump.
To be fair, 1 to 500 is a 500% increase.

no, that's a 49,900% increase, 1 - 6 is 500% increase
You are of course right, I was just being to lazy about it to think.
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Erik Henry
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An interesting quote where a right-wing radio personality expresses some remorse over creating an environment where facts don't seem to matter. I'm not sure how you get that horse back into the barn, though.

https://mobile.twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/76490972627883...
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Sarxis wrote:
I make it no secret that I'm skeptical of the current polling situation: polls can always serve your narrative, because if you dislike a poll result you can just not mention it. Also, the way media and news is being shared has drastically changed:







I read this the other day: http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/08/13/app-maker---tr...

I think there is some truth behind it. How much, well time will tell.
 
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J
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COMPNOR wrote:
I think there is some truth behind it. How much, well time will tell.

that's probably about as good as a poll on FB or twitter
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Mike Stiles
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COMPNOR wrote:


I think there is some truth behind it. How much, well time will tell.


Time will in fact tell, but remember that it's in the media's interest to push up the underdog.
 
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