Trey Chambers
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So if Trump wins every single state that is somewhat close, here is the result: http://www.270towin.com/maps/GOkkk

He STILL loses, even after winning Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Nevada, and even flipping usually Democratic Iowa.

New Hampshire would only get him to a tie, but New Hampshire is really bad for him demographically (it's very white, but also very educated).

So how does he even win? Flip Pennsylvania? Yea good luck with that.

Without a bombshell of October bombshells, I think we're safe from a Trump Presidency.
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Kelsey Rinella
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I am proud to have opposed those who describe all who oppose them as "Tender Flowers" and "Special Snowflakes".
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Do you want to tempt the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing?

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Trey Chambers
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I'm not overconfident, trust me. I won't stop worrying until they call Ohio or Florida for Clinton on election night.
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Oldies but Goodies ... Avalon Hill and
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Ummm...you know they called Florida for Gore on election night 2000?

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Moshe Callen
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Until the votes are actually cast, it's not over. Yes, polls indicate that Trump is dead in the water, and they're probably right. Still that being said, nobody's actually voted yet.
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Kissa
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It's over. Trump has poked himself in the eye one too many times now. The chucklehead actually had a chance but couldn't stop running his mouth and now he's d-e-d ded! I'll place bets with anyone who thinks otherwise as I've already placed a few irl when he got the nomination.
 
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Boaty McBoatface
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whac3 wrote:
Until the votes are actually cast, it's not over. Yes, polls indicate that Trump is dead in the water, and they're probably right. Still that being said, nobody's actually voted yet.
Hell we thought he would not get this far, never underestimate the power of embittered white privilege entitlement.
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Moshe Callen
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ἄνδρα μοι ἔννεπε, μοῦσα, πολύτροπον, ὃς μάλα πολλὰ/ πλάγχθη, ἐπεὶ Τροίης ἱερὸν πτολίεθρον ἔπερσεν./...
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slatersteven wrote:
whac3 wrote:
Until the votes are actually cast, it's not over. Yes, polls indicate that Trump is dead in the water, and they're probably right. Still that being said, nobody's actually voted yet.
Hell we thought he would not get this far, never underestimate the power of embittered white privilege entitlement.

I still have this irrational hunch he's going to win in the end. My presumption is that it's silly. If he does win somehow, can I claim clairvoyance?
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Boaty McBoatface
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whac3 wrote:
slatersteven wrote:
whac3 wrote:
Until the votes are actually cast, it's not over. Yes, polls indicate that Trump is dead in the water, and they're probably right. Still that being said, nobody's actually voted yet.
Hell we thought he would not get this far, never underestimate the power of embittered white privilege entitlement.

I still have this irrational hunch he's going to win in the end. My presumption is that it's silly. If he does win somehow, can I claim clairvoyance?
Sadly I am less sure now he will not win.
 
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Sam I am
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What did I tell you...
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Koldfoot wrote:
whac3 wrote:
Until the votes are actually cast, it's not over. Yes, polls indicate that Trump is dead in the water, and they're probably right. Still that being said, nobody's actually voted yet.


True, but even this is premature. They haven't even had a debate.


Do you think DJT can "win" a debate?

If by win you mean pointless oft repeated "zingers" without any other substance then I guess it's possible. Odds are he will be humiliated by shallow answers and lack of knowledge on subjects. After the first debacle he'll FINALLY try to learn about issues and policies but at that point the damage will have been done.

Moderator: 'Mr. Trump what would you do about Syria?'
DJT: 'I'd kill them biggly, extremely biggly, extremely extreme biggly, just like how the Clinton's killed Vince Foster... OH!, and Hilary's a liar!
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Chapel
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Until I hear a definite answer about who's going to win by Koldfoot, I'm not going to be 100% sure who will be the winner in this race.
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rcbevco wrote:
Koldfoot wrote:
whac3 wrote:
Until the votes are actually cast, it's not over. Yes, polls indicate that Trump is dead in the water, and they're probably right. Still that being said, nobody's actually voted yet.


True, but even this is premature. They haven't even had a debate.


Do you think DJT can "win" a debate?

If by win you mean pointless oft repeated "zingers" without any other substance then I guess it's possible. Odds are he will be humiliated by shallow answers and lack of knowledge on subjects. After the first debacle he'll FINALLY try to learn about issues and policies but at that point the damage will have been done.

Moderator: 'Mr. Trump what would you do about Syria?'
DJT: 'I'd kill them biggly, extremely biggly, extremely extreme biggly, just like how the Clinton's killed Vince Foster... OH!, and Hilary's a liar!
You do realize how being a know nothing loud mouth is actually seen as a virtue by many Americans (if RSP is anything to go by)?

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MWChapel wrote:
Until I hear a definite answer about who's going to win by Koldfoot, I'm not going to be 100% sure who will be the winner in this race.
Some bloke that is not even in the race (vince Cable or sooty or someone).
 
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Moshe Callen
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Koldfoot wrote:
Any thing is possible, but what rational scenario do you envision where he could lose... to Hillary?

1. The polls are reliable.
2. The Clinton era was 16 years ago or more and her baggage from that era is not really being held against her anymore.
3. People figure she's the less bad of the two viable options.
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J.D. Hall
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It would be easier to pass a camel through the eye of a needle than predict this race. The debates will give us a much, much clearer picture.
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Trey Chambers
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Koldfoot wrote:
whac3 wrote:
slatersteven wrote:
whac3 wrote:
Until the votes are actually cast, it's not over. Yes, polls indicate that Trump is dead in the water, and they're probably right. Still that being said, nobody's actually voted yet.
Hell we thought he would not get this far, never underestimate the power of embittered white privilege entitlement.

I still have this irrational hunch he's going to win in the end. My presumption is that it's silly. If he does win somehow, can I claim clairvoyance?


Any thing is possible, but what rational scenario do you envision where he could lose... to Hillary?


Because math. Look at the electoral map I posted. Which of those blue states do you see Trump peeling away? Pennsylvania? Do you want to place real money on that?
 
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Xuzu Horror
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Koldfoot wrote:
whac3 wrote:
Koldfoot wrote:
Any thing is possible, but what rational scenario do you envision where he could lose... to Hillary?

1. The polls are reliable.
2. The Clinton era was 16 years ago or more and her baggage from that era is not really being held against her anymore.
3. People figure she's the less bad of the two viable options.


Based on polls 3 months before votes were cast, Jeb Bush is now the nominee.

The Clinton baggage is piling up as we speak, and the press is in full defend Hillary mode. Hillary is not nearly as likable as Bill. 15,000 more emails? Clinton foundation disbanded hours after that revelation? They're trying to get ahead of something. This shit piles up and even monopoly players will not feel motivated to get out and vote for her.

That is contrasted with what? Terrifying Tweets that most people are good with?

Don't even get into the fact she would be the first well known democrat of national stature to be elected to her first since Buchanan prior to the Civil War?

Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, Kerry were all ahead this far out.


It hasn't really been just his tweets, unless the words coming out of his mouth are computer generated tweets.

And, your statements about Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, and Kerry are true, but not by this type of margin. And, some of them it was a back and forth in the polls:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_U.S._Pr...

Of course, the popular isn't really that important as it is state by state voting that counts more as getting the electoral votes is what one needs, but the popular vote shows how the numbers bounces around in general.

Dukakis would be the best example of a potential shift with Mondale being the poorest.

Usually a big misstep causes such extreme shifts, but the issue here is that Trump and Clinton's big missteps are already out there so new missteps will have a hard time being worse than those already made.

As people have stated, we'd have to hear about something truly supremely awful to be as bad as what has occurred - else it is just more of the same and people are brushing them all off.

The fact that either has a chance to win is only because of the missteps of the other. I will withhold my commentary on which person's missteps I feel are more extreme since I don't feel that is necessary, but I do not personally feel they are equal. And, people on both sides feel they are of different extreme value. (also, yes, I realize misstep is an overly kind way to word the issues faced as some of those missteps were not exactly accidental and thus not exactly missteps)

The point is, this is not like any of those other races. I do not know if that means the results could be more predictable or less, but I do know that I would not want to compare them so closely to the past - which likely means I'd want to try as hard as I can if I were a campaign despite whatever polls say.

And, even if a poll says you have a small chance to win, a chance is still there meaning it could happen so one should try as hard as they can to increase their team's side (without hurting the country so avoiding a scorched earth approach is preferred as they will have to run this country after it's all done - especially considering one would assume they care about this country if they want the job).
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Christopher Seguin
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rcbevco wrote:
Moderator: 'Mr. Trump what would you do about Syria?'
DJT: 'I'd kill them biggly, extremely biggly, extremely extreme biggly, just like how the Clinton's killed Vince Foster... OH!, and Hilary's a liar!


I actually read that in my mind in the voice of Jimmy Fallon doing Donald Trump.

It's so spot on, it's scary!
 
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