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Drew
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A completely avoidable problem is looming: a huge population of elderly people with not enough younger working people to sustain them.

Which means we need to start making babies.

http://thefederalist.com/2016/08/23/have-lots-of-children-it...

Quote:
More than any time in the history, in India — China, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia — children have a better chance than ever to avoid extreme poverty. Now is the best time to make some.

Even the United Nations estimates that the nine billion people expected by 2050 could be supported with the technology we already possess. What Malthusians never take into consideration are the efficiencies and technology we don’t have yet, which continually amaze us and undermine their dark vision of humankind’s future.

Also, imagine how history would have played out if humans “protected their kids by not having them” in times of calamity and tragedy? Here’s a provocative thought: Maybe it’s the best time in history to have children.

The real problem we face is sustaining population. The replacement rate is 2.1, and in places they fail to meet this threshold — parts of Europe and Japan, for example — they’ve suffered economic and cultural stagnation. Here in the United States we have, for a variety of reasons, long struggled with this problem, as Jonathan Last has argued. The success of developing nations also portends a similar slow-down for them.

Prosperity is not just about selfishness, it’s about health, peace, happiness, and community. I’m not sure what economic plan philosophers and environmentalists have to help grow an economy that will take care of the ballooning older population. Unless they subscribe to the Ezekiel Emanuel school of thought, which is to say treat the notion of the elderly the same way some devout environmentalists treat the notion of children.


See also:

Why can’t we see that we’re living in a golden age?

Quote:
If you think that there has never been a better time to be alive — that humanity has never been safer, healthier, more prosperous or less unequal — then you’re in the minority. But that is what the evidence incontrovertibly shows. Poverty, malnutrition, illiteracy, child labour and infant mortality are falling faster than at any other time in human history. The risk of being caught up in a war, subjected to a dictatorship or of dying in a natural disaster is smaller than ever. The golden age is now.

. . .

Karl Marx thought that capitalism inevitably made the rich richer and the poor poorer. By the time Marx died, however, the average Englishman was three times richer than at the time of his birth 65 years earlier — never before had the population experienced anything like it.

Fast forward to 1981. Then, almost nine in ten Chinese lived in extreme poverty; now just one in ten do. Then, just half of the world’s population had access to safe water. Now, 91 per cent do. On average, that means that 285,000 more people have gained access to safe water every day for the past 25 years.

Global trade has led to an expansion of wealth on a magnitude which is hard to comprehend. During the 25 years since the end of the Cold War, global economic wealth — or GDP per capita — has increased almost as much as it did during the preceding 25,000 years. It’s no coincidence that such growth has occurred alongside a massive expansion of rule by the people for the people. A quarter of a century ago, barely half the world’s countries were democracies. Now, almost two thirds are. To say that freedom is still on the march is an understatement.

Part of our problem is one of success. As we get richer, our tolerance for global poverty diminishes. So we get angrier about injustices. Charities quite rightly wish to raise funds, so they draw our attention to the plight of the world’s poorest. But since the Cold War ended, extreme poverty has decreased from 37 per cent to 9.6 per cent — in single digits for the first time in history.
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J.D. Hall
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Hey I did my part. Two kids.

As for the second quoted article: well, duh. Only romantic morons think life was better 100 years ago, 1,000 years ago, or even 50 years ago.
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Andre
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Sustaining the elderly is not the issue, having enugh natural resources to sustain everyone might be, if the population grows significantly beyond where it is now. More people in general means more demand for water, fossil fuels, electricity, land....all things in limited quantity on this planet of ours. Competition for these resources would be fierce, with the likely winners being the current first world countries, at the expense of everyone else.

http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/world-population-trends-s...

Summary of dangers from the article above;

In the years ahead, governments and the international community must address development consequences of population dynamics before they unfold by adopting forward-looking and pro-active policies based on past, current and foreseeable demographic trends. These population trends present challenges for all societies in the 21st century including low labor force participation, especially among youth; limited female empowerment; environmental degradation; food and water shortages; rapid urbanization; insufficient provision of housing, education and medical care; restrictive immigration policies; forced displacement and failing states. Good planning could reduce the cost of unforeseen investments in security and disaster relief for the inevitable crises ahead.
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Chris Binkowski
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Drew1365 wrote:
A completely avoidable problem is looming: a huge population of elderly people with not enough younger working people to sustain them.

Which means we need to start making babies.



Why make babies when we can just import them from nations who don't share our values?
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Drew
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abadolato01 wrote:
Sustaining the elderly is not the issue, having enugh natural resources to sustain everyone might be, if the population grows significantly beyond where it is now.


If the doomsayers were right, we'd have had mass starvation by 1980. But we didn't. Because reality (due to advances in technology) always proves the Malthusians wrong. Why are they right this time when they've always been wrong in the past?

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Chapel
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So in essence, be happy because life is pretty good, and have a couple kids.

Done and done.
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Moshe Callen
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Drew1365 wrote:
abadolato01 wrote:
Sustaining the elderly is not the issue, having enugh natural resources to sustain everyone might be, if the population grows significantly beyond where it is now.


If the doomsayers were right, we'd have had mass starvation by 1980. But we didn't. Because reality (due to advances in technology) always proves the Malthusians wrong. Why are they right this time when they've always been wrong in the past?


Mmm. Soylent green.
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Andre
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The article does not list starvaton as a major issue, but the struggle for resources that help produce food might be an issue, namely, water and land. It may mean more people fall below the poverty line, not exactly a good thing, and it may only exacerbate what some may feel is "the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer". India and China have the largest populations in the world, but a HUGE number of their inhabitants live below the poverty line. Stuff another hunded million in the same box, and the results can't be good.
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Living where I live, LDS Central, I feel blessed every day because Mormons just "bud" new infants at a steady pace. So I am surrounded by young people and cheerful smiles that will be working and marrying and budding new marrying, budding, smiling children... all part of the system to help me sustain my comfortable lifestyle.

Someone like me admitting I feel blessed is pretty dramatic. Because I'm not even a tiny bit religious. But I sure like them folks.
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Jeff Brown
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Drew1365 wrote:

See also:

Why can’t we see that we’re living in a golden age?

Quote:
If you think that there has never been a better time to be alive — that humanity has never been safer, healthier, more prosperous or less unequal — then you’re in the minority. But that is what the evidence incontrovertibly shows. Poverty, malnutrition, illiteracy, child labour and infant mortality are falling faster than at any other time in human history. The risk of being caught up in a war, subjected to a dictatorship or of dying in a natural disaster is smaller than ever. The golden age is now.

. . .

Karl Marx thought that capitalism inevitably made the rich richer and the poor poorer. By the time Marx died, however, the average Englishman was three times richer than at the time of his birth 65 years earlier — never before had the population experienced anything like it.

Fast forward to 1981. Then, almost nine in ten Chinese lived in extreme poverty; now just one in ten do. Then, just half of the world’s population had access to safe water. Now, 91 per cent do. On average, that means that 285,000 more people have gained access to safe water every day for the past 25 years.

Global trade has led to an expansion of wealth on a magnitude which is hard to comprehend. During the 25 years since the end of the Cold War, global economic wealth — or GDP per capita — has increased almost as much as it did during the preceding 25,000 years. It’s no coincidence that such growth has occurred alongside a massive expansion of rule by the people for the people. A quarter of a century ago, barely half the world’s countries were democracies. Now, almost two thirds are. To say that freedom is still on the march is an understatement.

Part of our problem is one of success. As we get richer, our tolerance for global poverty diminishes. So we get angrier about injustices. Charities quite rightly wish to raise funds, so they draw our attention to the plight of the world’s poorest. But since the Cold War ended, extreme poverty has decreased from 37 per cent to 9.6 per cent — in single digits for the first time in history.


Totally agree with this. I tell my students and my own 6 kids that they are among the richest that the planet has ever seen. They often have a hard time believing it because they don't know any better but its true even if they live in families with lower incomes like myself.
 
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Sam I am
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Drew1365 wrote:
abadolato01 wrote:
Sustaining the elderly is not the issue, having enugh natural resources to sustain everyone might be, if the population grows significantly beyond where it is now.


If the doomsayers were right, we'd have had mass starvation by 1980. But we didn't. Because reality (due to advances in technology) always proves the Malthusians wrong. Why are they right this time when they've always been wrong in the past?



If the doomsayers were right Jesus would have been back a dozen or more times by now but you still go to church and still think he will be back someday.

Science and technology may come up with answers but they might be as unpalatable as the concept of cloned meat slurry.
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Lee Fisher
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In before this gets Shreved with Quiverfull.


Just bored and reading Federalist all day Drew?

But yeah that Golden Age article makes sense. I thought you were the one who keeps saying things were getting worse though.
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Wendell
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I do think we're living in good times.

Hope we can keep it going so good for those children and grandchildren.
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Michael Carter
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No thanks. I don’t like kids.
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Moshe Callen
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mlcarter815 wrote:
No thanks. I don’t like kids.

What kind of marinate do you use?
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Drew
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rcbevco wrote:
Science and technology may come up with answers but they might be as unpalatable as the concept of cloned meat slurry.


You reject science and technology because it's scary?
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Sam I am
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whac3 wrote:
mlcarter815 wrote:
No thanks. I don’t like kids.

What kind of marinate do you use?


I find that a raspberry vinaigrette dressing marinade adds a nice fruitiness to the meat then slather on some honey based BBQ sauce and slow roast...
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Drew1365 wrote:
rcbevco wrote:
Science and technology may come up with answers but they might be as unpalatable as the concept of cloned meat slurry.


You reject science and technology because it's scary?

Nope but meat from a vat sounds... gross (no worse that the pink sludge they put in hot dogs I guess). BUT since I'm game I'd try it without hesitation. I survived veggie burgers. I'll survive vat meat.
 
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Moshe Callen
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I'm vegetarian but if the meat is grown in a vat so that nothing died or is mistreated in the process, I don't see the problem. Of course my digestive system will probably still object which is why I went vegetarian in the first place (more or less).
 
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J.D. Hall
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rcbevco wrote:
whac3 wrote:
mlcarter815 wrote:
No thanks. I don’t like kids.

What kind of marinate do you use?


I find that a raspberry vinaigrette dressing marinade adds a nice fruitiness to the meat then slather on some honey based BBQ sauce and slow roast...

Naw. Chicken fry 'em then cover with cream gravy. Serve with a side order of mashed kittens.
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Mac Mcleod
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Drew1365 wrote:
abadolato01 wrote:
Sustaining the elderly is not the issue, having enugh natural resources to sustain everyone might be, if the population grows significantly beyond where it is now.


If the doomsayers were right, we'd have had mass starvation by 1980. But we didn't. Because reality (due to advances in technology) always proves the Malthusians wrong. Why are they right this time when they've always been wrong in the past?


It's a pretty simple model.


Critique here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_catastrophe




The problem with this model is... it's already out of date with a projected population of 12 billion and an 80% chance the population will continue to increase from that point.

A more robust model based on various factors including non-renewables.


There are many limits to growth. We might solve some of them fully (disease?) and others partially (pollution of various kinds).
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Mac Mcleod
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On a more basic note, if we keep having more children it just puts off the problem of transition to a steady state model.

Since our productivity is 100x what it was a century ago, we should be able to take care of our seniors and ensure they have a roof, food, and entertainment. Maybe not steak but good food.
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Andrew Bartosh

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I'm more worried about the practicality of it. It's tough to have one kid, let alone more, in a two-earner household.
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Greg Michealson
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DWTripp wrote:
Living where I live, LDS Central, I feel blessed every day because Mormons just "bud" new infants at a steady pace. So I am surrounded by young people and cheerful smiles that will be working and marrying and budding new marrying, budding, smiling children... all part of the system to help me sustain my comfortable lifestyle.

Someone like me admitting I feel blessed is pretty dramatic. Because I'm not even a tiny bit religious. But I sure like them folks.


What's not to like?!

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Xander Fulton
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Waitwaitwait...

...where did we go from "sustaining the elderly by draining the productive efforts of younger generations" to "= good for the planet"?

I think I missed a turn, somewhere in there...
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