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Mac Mcleod
United States
houston
Texas
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http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Clinton landslide odds down to 31%
Johnson seems to be declining from a peak of about 10%.

Electoral votes

Hillary Clinton

353.0

Donald Trump

184.5

Gary Johnson

0.5


Popular vote

Hillary Clinton

48.8%

Donald Trump

41.6%

Gary Johnson

8.3%
 
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Pontifex Maximus
United States
CA
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maxo-texas wrote:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Clinton landslide odds down to 31%
Johnson seems to be declining from a peak of about 10%.

Electoral votes

Hillary Clinton

353.0

Donald Trump

184.5

Gary Johnson

0.5


Popular vote

Hillary Clinton

48.8%

Donald Trump

41.6%

Gary Johnson

8.3%


After the idiot hire of Bannon, barring the October Surprise of all October Surprise, election day is going to be a day of their for the representatives of the lunatic right here.
 
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Daniel Edwards
United Kingdom
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Maybe it's because us non-Americans simply aren't used to such long campaigns but calling it months out and before the first debate seems premature.
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Wendell
United States
Yellow Springs
Ohio
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myopia wrote:
Maybe it's because us non-Americans simply aren't used to such long campaigns but calling it months out and before the first debate seems premature.


Polling experts cite history which shows that polls taken a month or so after the conventions (i.e., around now) tend to be pretty close to the final numbers.

That said, this is based on a small sample size going back to the 1970s, and every election is sufficiently different from other ones that I agree it's premature to call it.
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Mac Mcleod
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I agree. It's amazing how a candidate can say and do all kinds of terrible things and then deliver a good teleprompted speech and recover 5% in the polls.

It's a question of if trump can stay scripted for another 40 to 70 days or not.

 
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