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Terra Mystica» Forums » Strategy

Subject: Witches opening statistics - revisited rss

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Witches opening statistics revisited
(data collected via https://flat1701.github.io/tmstats/; if you don't understand the abbreviations, look up the reference here: *click*)
Unless stated otherwise in the text, the statistics use the following filters:
* 4p games
* played by players rated >= 1100 (i.e. "Rating Quartile" is set to "Best + Good")
* original map
* Cultists Errata
* no F&I factions allowed (and thus no present )
* even in stats which include games that allowed F&I factions (e.g. "All factions"), my stats never include games which allowed variable factions before the official rule update ("v5")
* no additional scoring (Outposts aka "edge", distance, SA/SH distance, Settlements aka "clusters")
* don't care about whether the game allowed VTO, TW6-8, BON10, or TE>>4 round scoring

These filters pretty much represent the settings of a 4p game with the TM base game (plus VTO and mini-expansions) as it's used in the Terra Mystica tournament. You may rightfully argue that VTO or the presence of some mini-expansion (or not) will affect the chances of a faction, but the sample sizes just get too small and the differences are not overly relevant (and where I suspect they may be, e.g. BON10 and Mermaids, I'll check). This is about round 1 where only the starting order matters, so VTO (variable turn order) or not is less relevant.

The data lines focus on the relevant information - most filters will be mentioned in the text instead. All observations should be taken with a grain of salt, as some of the sample sizes are quite small.

The main comparisons are based on the column labeled "Margin". It contains the VP difference of the given faction compared to the average VPs in the game. So if a game between factions A, B, C and D ends 130:120:110:100VP, then the average VP count is 115VP, and the margins are +15, +5, -5 and -15 for factions A, B C and D respectively. If another game between the same factions ends 150:140:130:120, the respective margins will be exactly the same.
Still there is also a column labeled "VP" which gives the average VPs in the given scenario. Both "VP" and "Margin" come with an indicator of an error range (the number behind the '±') - the smaller this number, the more reliable is the value itself. This is usually correlated with the number of samples which are given in the "Count" column: a low number of samples (less than 50 or so) can be tainted much easier by some freak results than a large sample size.

Included in "Observation 1" is a benchmark for games played by the remaining players (I'll refer to this group as "rated less than 1100" even though it includes unrated players too): the delta between their average with all factions compared to the faction whose openings I'm checking may give an indication how "difficult"/"forgiving" the faction is.


Observation 1: Witches are a slightly-better-than-average faction in the hands of good players, and minimally sub-par in the hands of players of lower rating. This is a change to my previous analysis, where Witches also performed slightly better than average for players rated in the lower 50%. Still Witches seem to be an "easy-to-play" faction, and the rulebook recommends Witches for the first game regardless of 2p, 3p, 4p or 5p.
Interestingly, the situation reverses on the new map (without expansion scoring), where players with ratings above 1100 do significantly worse than the average faction, while the lower rated players do better than average. On the revised map, Witches look somewhat OP if played by good players, while still under average for players rated less than 1100. Note that the sample sizes for the F&I maps are quite small.
Desc. VP Margin Count
ORIGINAL MAP
games played by players rated >= 1100
All factions 128.58 ± 0.09 6.01 ± 0.09 33615
No F&I factions 128.62 ± 0.09 6.01 ± 0.09 33058
Witches 129.47 ± 0.31 6.41 ± 0.30 2935 (set for further analysis)

games played by players rated less than 1100
All factions 108.96 ± 0.10 -5.40 ± 0.09 37453
No F&I factions 108.97 ± 0.10 -5.42 ± 0.09 36718
Witches 108.77 ± 0.35 -5.94 ± 0.31 3408

NEW F&I MAP ("side 1")
games played by players rated >= 1100
All factions 126.00 ± 0.52 5.29 ± 0.50 1129
No F&I factions 127.77 ± 0.67 6.12 ± 0.64 702
Witches 125.88 ± 2.58 2.82 ± 2.13 56

games played by players rated less than 1100
All factions 107.44 ± 0.57 -4.66 ± 0.52 1283
No F&I factions 108.19 ± 0.67 -4.54 ± 0.62 946
Witches 109.23 ± 2.27 -3.65 ± 1.99 86

REVISED MAP ("side 2")
games played by players rated >= 1100
All factions 128.38 ± 0.48 5.63 ± 0.45 1296
No F&I factions 129.35 ± 0.58 6.63 ± 0.55 859
Witches 132.09 ± 1.79 11.02 ± 1.81 77

games played by players rated less than 1100
All factions 107.26 ± 0.61 -6.23 ± 0.52 1699
No F&I factions 108.59 ± 0.58 -5.16 ± 0.53 1105
Witches 109.58 ± 2.04 -5.77 ± 1.88 91



Observation 2: About one third of all Witches open with their stronghold, which is more promising than opening with a temple (taken by 44%) and about even with openings without SH or TE (taken by 21%). In the previous analysis, SH openings accounted for about 50%, TE openings for ca. 27% and the rest to ca. 23%. So the behavior has changed quite a bit towards opening with a TE. This could be interpreted that the SH opening is no longer the default, but rather an active decision.

Witches who built their SH get one extra dwelling for free - 50% of all SH builders ended their move after this (that's 17% of all Witches and almost as popular as the most common building combination at the end of round 1: TE+3D). And it's about as good as SH+3D, but significantly worse than SH+TP(+D) or SH+4D.

In order to do better than average, Witches who built a temple should also have at least 3 dwellings at the end of round 1.

A dwelling rush can also be a very promising opening for Witches - but they need a minimum of six dwellings at the end of round 1.

Uncommon openings:
* 11 Witches players managed to build both the SH and a TE (which requires extra 4w + 2c) - with mixed results.
Desc. VP Margin Count
1SH 129.30 ± 0.52 7.34 ± 0.49 1010
1SA 124.09 ± 4.25 -2.14 ± 5.09 11
1TE0SA0SH 129.61 ± 0.48 5.35 ± 0.47 1285
0TE0SA0SH 129.55 ± 0.67 7.26 ± 0.63 629

breakdown of SH builders:
D1TESH 127.91 ± 4.93 7.77 ± 6.17 11
2TPSH 132.00 ± NaN 9.75 ± NaN 1
1TPSH 131.88 ± 1.71 8.74 ± 1.79 80
* D1TPSH 131.87 ± 1.74 8.74 ± 1.76 77
* 2D1TPSH 132.00 ± 11.93 8.92 ± 18.67 3
2D0TPSH 128.80 ± 0.76 6.75 ± 0.70 507
3D0TPSH 128.22 ± 0.86 6.67 ± 0.84 326
4D0TPSH 134.29 ± 1.75 11.97 ± 1.60 82

breakdown of temple builders (excluding the 11 which also built their SH):
2TE 113.63 ± 7.09 -5.44 ± 7.83 8

TPTE 128.02 ± 1.60 3.08 ± 1.54 125
* 0DTPTE 124.31 ± 2.54 0.34 ± 2.37 51
* DTPTE 128.75 ± 2.20 4.08 ± 2.27 51
* 2DTPTE 134.18 ± 4.49 6.22 ± 4.27 22

0TPTE 129.89 ± 0.50 5.67 ± 0.49 1152
* D0TPTE 125.53 ± 1.42 0.34 ± 1.34 172
* 2D0TPTE 127.11 ± 0.83 3.33 ± 0.80 399
* 3D0TPTE 133.15 ± 0.69 8.96 ± 0.68 551
* 4D0TPTE 132.11 ± 3.08 6.70 ± 2.49 27
* 5D0TPTE 132.00 ± 3.46 6.75 ± 3.38 3

breakdown of non-TE/SH builders:
3TP 100.00 ± NaN -18.00 ± NaN 1
2TP 127.79 ± 2.07 4.48 ± 1.93 42
* 0D2TP 119.33 ± 2.60 8.58 ± 3.27 3
* D2TP 124.43 ± 2.84 6.64 ± 4.04 7
* 2D2TP 128.62 ± 2.81 2.42 ± 2.50 29
* 4D2TP 136.00 ± 2.52 15.17 ± 2.17 3

TP 125.70 ± 1.07 4.67 ± 1.02 237
* DTP 118.60 ± 7.06 1.35 ± 5.84 5
* 2DTP 109.46 ± 3.54 -6.97 ± 4.26 24
* 3DTP 118.56 ± 3.13 0.33 ± 2.96 34
* 4DTP 127.85 ± 2.30 8.35 ± 2.47 41
* 5DTP 130.16 ± 1.22 7.17 ± 1.14 129
* 6DTP 125.00 ± 10.21 -4.25 ± 6.76 3
* 7DTP 131.00 ± NaN 1.25 ± NaN 1

2D0TP0TE0SA0SH 125.00 ± NaN -6.75 ± NaN 1
3D0TP0TE0SA0SH 111.73 ± 3.40 -7.45 ± 2.26 11
4D0TP0TE0SA0SH 120.86 ± 3.43 3.32 ± 3.33 22
5D0TP0TE0SA0SH 123.84 ± 2.09 2.50 ± 2.02 58
6D0TP0TE0SA0SH 129.02 ± 2.00 7.65 ± 2.06 54
7D0TP0TE0SA0SH 137.37 ± 1.11 12.80 ± 1.15 164
8D0TP0TE0SA0SH 142.03 ± 2.98 16.51 ± 2.65 39



Observation 3: The most popular (30%) starting bonus tile for Witches is BON4 (ship +3pw), followed by BON1 (spade +2c) and BON6 (SA/SH*4 +2w). These are also the bonus tiles with the best margins, though BON1 is better than BON6, while BON4 is only slightly better than the fourth (BON8 = 1 priest).
As can be expected, BON4 works best with a dwelling spree; BON1 works best without a SH; while BON6 works best with a SH.
Desc. VP Margin Count
BON1 (Spade) 131.26 ± 0.72 8.58 ± 0.70 498
* SH 127.74 ± 1.24 5.92 ± 1.19 160
* TE 133.85 ± 1.00 10.17 ± 0.99 265
* only D 132.78 ± 2.49 10.49 ± 2.64 27
BON2 (Cult) 129.30 ± 1.39 4.78 ± 1.31 187
BON3 (6C) 129.86 ± 1.10 5.33 ± 1.03 214
BON4 (Ship+1) 129.33 ± 0.56 6.37 ± 0.54 891
* SH 125.51 ± 1.70 4.81 ± 1.66 81
* TE 127.62 ± 0.84 4.19 ± 0.83 396
* only D 134.05 ± 1.10 10.87 ± 1.04 252
BON5 (3pw,1W) 127.33 ± 0.98 5.33 ± 0.94 330
BON6 (SA/SH VP) 131.01 ± 0.83 7.21 ± 0.80 379
* SH 131.77 ± 0.94 8.44 ± 0.88 305
* TE 129.02 ± 2.00 2.34 ± 2.14 55
* only D 125.71 ± 5.27 -3.07 ± 3.96 7
BON7 (TP VP) 123.94 ± 2.53 1.47 ± 2.09 33
BON8 (1P) 128.82 ± 0.93 6.24 ± 0.86 340
BON9 (D VP) 125.33 ± 3.70 3.20 ± 3.87 27
BON10 (Ship VP) 124.53 ± 2.13 2.30 ± 1.87 36



Observation 4: Witches are picked from all four seats, with a slight preference on later picking. Picking Witches from seat #2 leads to a significantly worse margin than from the other three seats, which are about equal.
For each seat, I've listed the most popular bonus tiles picked from that seat. BON1 and BON6 are also doing well from seats #1 and #2, but the number of samples is smaller since these bonus tiles are usually taken by the players on seat #3 or seat #4.
Desc. VP Margin Count
seat 1 130.03 ± 0.61 6.79 ± 0.60 721
* BON2 (Cult) 129.58 ± 1.75 4.09 ± 1.61 113
* BON3 (6C) 131.25 ± 1.27 6.23 ± 1.29 125
* BON4 (Ship+1) 131.87 ± 1.25 9.74 ± 1.21 174
* BON8 (1P) 129.67 ± 2.07 8.92 ± 1.91 82

seat 2 129.06 ± 0.65 5.61 ± 0.60 682
* BON4 (Ship+1) 129.22 ± 1.14 5.73 ± 1.11 223
* BON5 (3pw,1W) 128.25 ± 1.68 4.68 ± 1.53 102
* BON6 (SA/SH) 132.06 ± 1.70 7.52 ± 1.81 66
* BON8 (1P) 129.08 ± 1.67 5.40 ± 1.48 104

seat 3 129.54 ± 0.63 6.65 ± 0.61 758
* BON1 (Spade) 132.19 ± 1.38 9.65 ± 1.33 149
* BON4 (Ship+1) 130.07 ± 1.05 6.03 ± 1.02 243
* BON5 (3pw,1W) 125.81 ± 1.91 4.60 ± 1.91 107
* BON6 (SA/SH) 129.99 ± 1.73 7.34 ± 1.61 101
* BON8 (1P) 128.60 ± 1.63 5.98 ± 1.55 104

seat 4 129.24 ± 0.59 6.54 ± 0.57 774
* BON1 (Spade) 130.82 ± 0.95 7.97 ± 0.97 266
* BON4 (Ship+1) 126.96 ± 1.05 4.94 ± 1.03 251
* BON6 (SA/SH) 131.71 ± 1.32 7.76 ± 1.23 156



Observation 5: (Corrolary to Observation 4) Witches have a slightly lower chance of winning if they are picked from seat #2.
Desc. VP Margin Count
winner 142.62 ± 0.35 21.01 ± 0.30 1132
* seat 1 143.14 ± 0.66 21.40 ± 0.57 292
* seat 2 141.91 ± 0.79 19.20 ± 0.64 253
* seat 3 142.90 ± 0.72 21.99 ± 0.59 293
* seat 4 142.45 ± 0.66 21.22 ± 0.57 294

2nd place 129.54 ± 0.37 6.55 ± 0.24 798
* seat 1 128.42 ± 0.79 5.59 ± 0.49 182
* seat 2 130.86 ± 0.73 7.62 ± 0.52 189
* seat 3 129.95 ± 0.74 6.49 ± 0.46 211
* seat 4 128.91 ± 0.71 6.47 ± 0.47 216

3rd place 119.43 ± 0.44 -4.79 ± 0.27 603
* seat 1 119.97 ± 0.92 -4.85 ± 0.56 150
* seat 2 119.85 ± 0.88 -4.52 ± 0.55 145
* seat 3 119.24 ± 0.86 -4.84 ± 0.53 139
* seat 4 118.75 ± 0.87 -4.92 ± 0.49 169

last 107.36 ± 0.61 -18.18 ± 0.41 402
* seat 1 109.18 ± 1.12 -16.96 ± 0.72 97
* seat 2 105.29 ± 1.26 -19.16 ± 0.80 95
* seat 3 107.21 ± 1.27 -18.26 ± 0.87 115
* seat 4 107.75 ± 1.20 -18.37 ± 0.81 95



Observation 6: About 30% of all Witches were picked in games which had SH>>5 scoring in round 1, 61% were of the Air variant. This scoring leads to better results than without, especially when the SH>>5 scoring is of the Air variant. BON3 (6c), BON6 (SA/SH VP), BON8 (priest) and in case of the Air variant also BON5 (1w, 3pw) are the bonus tiles which lead to the best results.
28% of Witch picks were done when D>>2 was the scoring in round 1. In such a setup, the only promising approach is to go for a dwelling spree or a TP with at least 4D (both usually achieved using BON4).
Desc. VP Margin Count
R1: SH>>5 131.39 ± 0.54 8.23 ± 0.52 890
* built SH 131.67 ± 0.62 8.97 ± 0.59 651
* BON1 130.26 ± 1.49 7.60 ± 1.44 110
* BON3 135.03 ± 1.82 9.97 ± 1.64 74
* BON4 128.28 ± 1.97 7.38 ± 1.91 60
* BON5 129.50 ± 1.51 8.86 ± 1.56 102
* BON6 134.67 ± 1.30 10.95 ± 1.20 147
* BON8 131.99 ± 1.54 10.52 ± 1.52 79

R1: SH>>5 (Air) 132.46 ± 0.71 8.86 ± 0.67 542
* built SH 132.87 ± 0.83 9.92 ± 0.78 397
* BON1 131.25 ± 2.09 8.48 ± 2.12 63
* BON3 135.79 ± 2.19 11.24 ± 1.99 53
* BON4 128.28 ± 1.97 7.38 ± 1.91 60
* BON5 131.77 ± 2.36 10.95 ± 2.42 53
* BON6 134.62 ± 1.84 10.33 ± 1.64 81
* BON8 133.52 ± 1.68 11.36 ± 1.60 66

R1: D>>2 129.76 ± 0.59 6.32 ± 0.56 834
* built SH 124.12 ± 1.43 2.44 ± 1.29 138
* built TE 128.04 ± 0.94 4.16 ± 0.90 333
* built TP 129.25 ± 1.39 6.89 ± 1.30 106
* built only D 135.67 ± 1.05 11.56 ± 1.03 244
* BON4 136.92 ± 1.29 12.92 ± 1.25 181



Observation 7: Witches build their SH in round 1 mainly when there's a SH>>5 scoring (64%). Round 1 temples were somewhat evenly distributed amongst the other scoring tiles. 68% of the 360 dwelling sprees happened when round 1 had a D>>2 scoring.
Desc. VP Margin Count
built SH 129.30 ± 0.52 7.34 ± 0.49 1010
* Spade>>2 126.27 ± 1.98 5.78 ± 2.08 67
* Town>>5 122.45 ± 2.16 4.64 ± 2.30 55
* D>>2 (water) 126.00 ± 2.26 2.59 ± 2.01 56
* SH>>5 (fire) 129.81 ± 0.92 7.50 ± 0.89 254
* D>>2 (fire) 122.84 ± 1.84 2.34 ± 1.69 82
* TP>>3 (water) 126.76 ± 2.38 5.36 ± 2.41 42
* SH>>5 (air) 132.87 ± 0.83 9.92 ± 0.78 397
* TP>>3 (air) 127.27 ± 2.52 6.57 ± 2.05 56
* TE>>4 100.00 ± NaN -4.00 ± NaN 1

built TE 129.61 ± 0.48 5.35 ± 0.47 1285
* Spade>>2 129.29 ± 1.23 4.96 ± 1.23 204
* Town>>5 129.53 ± 1.42 8.72 ± 1.41 127
* D>>2 (water) 126.11 ± 1.36 1.46 ± 1.27 163
* SH>>5 (fire) 130.24 ± 2.07 6.38 ± 2.06 68
* D>>2 (fire) 129.75 ± 1.25 6.37 ± 1.20 182
* TP>>3 (water) 129.76 ± 1.37 5.38 ± 1.47 154
* SH>>5 (air) 131.92 ± 1.74 6.03 ± 1.58 106
* TP>>3 (air) 130.40 ± 1.14 5.27 ± 1.04 227
* TE>>4 132.02 ± 2.19 4.71 ± 2.28 54

built only D 132.21 ± 0.89 9.06 ± 0.85 360
* Spade>>2 124.42 ± 2.72 3.49 ± 2.77 36
* Town>>5 125.91 ± 3.04 6.41 ± 2.89 23
* D>>2 (water) 138.31 ± 1.43 13.58 ± 1.47 118
* SH>>5 (fire) 124.69 ± 5.37 5.80 ± 4.37 16
* D>>2 (fire) 133.11 ± 1.49 9.47 ± 1.42 127
* TP>>3 (water) 116.14 ± 4.49 -4.39 ± 3.01 7
* SH>>5 (air) 128.73 ± 2.96 4.03 ± 3.07 22
* TP>>3 (air) 123.27 ± 2.53 3.00 ± 2.99 11



Observation 8: This observation only covers the 1285 temple-but-no-SH builders (who reached a 5.35 margin on average). If you're a faction which gets free dwellings from your SH, getting FAV11 (Earth1, D>>2) is a pick which is "obviously" good. Almost 90% took it. The only other somewhat popular favor tile is FAV8 (Air2, +4pw) which brings the Witches to 4 in the Air cult right away, but FAV11 gives better margins.
Desc. VP Margin Count
FAV4 (A3) 84.00 ± NaN -26.75 ± NaN 1
FAV5 (F2) 114.50 ± 2.50 2.63 ± 5.63 2
FAV6 (W2) 118.45 ± 5.50 2.20 ± 5.36 11
FAV7 (E2) 121.20 ± 5.16 -2.47 ± 4.95 15
FAV8 (A2) 129.55 ± 1.89 5.20 ± 1.61 71
FAV9 (F1) 125.33 ± 3.73 1.79 ± 4.10 18
FAV10 (W1) 120.48 ± 2.96 -1.51 ± 3.21 21
FAV11 (E1) 130.02 ± 0.51 5.62 ± 0.50 1152
FAV12 (A1) 130.00 ± 15.00 5.50 ± 17.25 2



Observation 9: 62% of the Witches' games used VTO (variable turn order), which is slightly higher than the general VTO percentage of 59%. I.e. Witches were slightly more popular since VTO was introduced. Witches did significantly worse in games with VTO, but so do most factions (cf. this statistic on BGG). The delta in margin of 2.4 VP is slightly lower for Witches than it is for the average base factions (2.8 VP).
88% of the non-VTO games were recorded before April 2015, only 131 since. Just 34 VTO games were recorded before April 2015.
Desc. VP Margin Count
no VTO 128.35 ± 0.52 7.92 ± 0.50 1117
VTO 130.16 ± 0.39 5.49 ± 0.37 1818



Observation 10: Witches seem to get more leech in round 1 than the average faction, and for them it's "the more, the merrier".
Desc. VP Margin Count
Power leeched by all factions in the tournament setting
0-3 125.29 ± 0.17 4.41 ± 0.17 9483 (28.7%)
4-7 128.83 ± 0.14 6.14 ± 0.14 13643 (41.3%)
8-11 131.09 ± 0.19 7.17 ± 0.18 7748 (23.4%)
12-15 133.15 ± 0.39 8.15 ± 0.36 1938 (5.9%)
16+ 131.89 ± 1.17 7.77 ± 1.04 246 (0.7%)

Power leeched by Witches in the tournament setting
0-3 123.65 ± 0.70 2.80 ± 0.67 613 (20.9%)
4-7 129.70 ± 0.48 7.04 ± 0.47 1180 (40.2%)
8-11 131.68 ± 0.55 7.24 ± 0.53 861 (29.3%)
12-15 134.26 ± 0.96 9.03 ± 0.91 252 (8.6%)
16+ 135.93 ± 2.16 9.90 ± 2.41 29 (1.0%)




Conclusion: Witches are a stronger-than-average faction in the hands of good players. Since my last analysis, the temple opening got significantly more popular and is now used more often than the SH opening, though the SH opening provides better results (probably because these days, SH openings mainly happen when there's SH>>5 scoring in round 1).
A dwelling spree (resulting in 6+ buildings at the end of round 1, usually requiring the ship bonus tile) and TE+3D (best with spade or ship bonus tile) are the most promising openings, but when Witches build their SH even with just two dwellings in total (and keep in mind that the 2nd D is free via SH ability!), that also leads to better-than-average margins.

=================

New opening statistics for base factions:
- Alchemists: Alchemists opening statistics - revisited
- Witches: Witches opening statistics - revisited


Older opening statistics for base factions:
- Alchemists: Alchemist opening statistics
- Auren: Auren opening statistics
- Chaos Magicians: Chaos Magicians openings statistics
- Cultists: Cultists opening statistics
- Darklings: Darklings opening statistics
- Dwarves: Dwarves opening statistics
- Engineers: Engineers opening statistics
- Fakirs: Fakirs opening statistics
- Giants: Giants opening statistics
- Halflings: Halflings opening statistics
- Mermaids: Mermaids opening statistics
- Nomads: Nomads opening statistics
- Swarmlings: Swarmling opening statistics
- Witches: Witches opening statistics

Older opening statistics for expansion factions:
- Riverwalkers: Riverwalker opening statistics
- Yetis: Yetis opening statistics
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Jordan Lewis
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I've been saying for a while that Witches are a totally average faction with an average SH and average ability and their primary advantage is being blessed with favorable map design. This analysis has rebutted this a bit in one aspect; it seems the Witches SH has emerged as a slight asset for them.

If nothing else, the Witches SH helps with mitigating risk of low neighbors/leech, allowing a quick rd 1 pivot to a 3rd starting area. The SH makes Witches a viable option in SH opening games, in which grey and Mermaids are less common and there are generally fewer great choices.

I also believes Witches SH helps them with most expansion scoring, though that isn't in this analysis. I've been beaten one too many times by Witches on F&I1 who dominate edge, cluster and distance.

I'm surprised the rd 1 dwelling rush remains above average. With the greater emphasis on FAV11 rush, I would think most Witches would rather get a couple 4vp d's and 2vp later than 10-12vps now. A dwelling rush at margin +11 on D>>2 could be helped by Mermaids or another faction also doing a dwelling rush, which leaves open the possibility of getting FAV11 (not that Witches want it so much afterwards). I think the average margins for a dwelling rush on SH opening games also indicates that Witches can more more safely rush dwellings if another player leaves them FAV11 for rd 2 or 3.

Thanks for doing this Doc!
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Luke J
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The biggest story for me here is how much better 7D is than 5D+TP. Obviously, the income for that TP is only 2c+1pw, which is probably not better than 2w, but it's a head start on building a round 2 temple or stronghold (whichever is appropriate depending on the setup). Seems like that head start is not worth it (especially as it most likely comes at the expense of 4 VP).
 
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C TK
Canada
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JordanLewis1 wrote:
With the greater emphasis on FAV11 rush, I would think most Witches would rather get a couple 4vp d's and 2vp later than 10-12vps now.


It's not just about the VPs. Building 7D provides 8W income (vs 4W, 1P). It also secures land and delays the need to advance shipping for most of the game. Further to the above, Witches can then take a round 2 income tile, ignore fav11 (which is of reduced value with half of dwellings already placed) and instead take fav10 in the midgame, as here.
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Chris Sandman
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Would have been interesting to see various statistics that show the effect of the TW-bonus round or TWs in general (comparison of performances with 2 and 3 TWs eg compared to the average effect of the other factions^^):

In my experience (this shouldnt be surprising but it would be nice to see numbers) it is nice to have a TW round at the end. With a nice sequence of round scorings you sometimes dont really need vp-favs as you may be able to trigger all three TWs in the TWround and in addition perform well on network due to bigger snowballing because of "not having to build a first round" TE to secure fav11 for example. Sometimes it is of course beneficial to build one of your TWs earlier to defend a cult lead or strengthen your economy.

Here are some personal experiences:

Recent league game without the two major VP-FAVs:
http://terra.snellman.net/game/4pLeague_S14_D4L1_G3

Another 6th round TW game:
http://terra.snellman.net/game/TMFun08

I also suspect that it is beneficial for witches to have no highscoring setup. I ve had the best results when there is only one TP or D scoring in the last three rounds. If you are able to build three TWs that is 15 aditional VPs in a setup that does not deliver that big of a "natural vp source" in the 2nd half of the game (excluding endgame scoring which gets of course disproportionately important in such a situation):

http://terra.snellman.net/game/Frigg
http://terra.snellman.net/game/OffSeason06
See also both above games.

Another interesting thing would be to validate the destroying effect of a grey competitor and to analyze the effect of ingame blue. Most of the time im able to be competitive with ingame swarmlings but mermaids are rather suboptimal.

But these are just suggestions for the third run ( ) and im quite happy with your effort and good insights DocCool, thanks a lot!
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Robert
Germany
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DieKrake wrote:
Would have been interesting to see various statistics that show the effect of the TW-bonus round or TWs in general (comparison of performances with 2 and 3 TWs eg compared to the average effect of the other factions^^)
While I agree that more knowledge could be useful (e.g. existence of faction(s) of adjacent color(s) in the game - in the case of Witches: were there grey and/or blue factions in the game?), this is about "XYZ opening statistics"...

DieKrake wrote:
But these are just suggestions for the third run ( ) and im quite happy with your effort and good insights DocCool, thanks a lot!
You're welcome - with all the extra information available now, I've already found way more interesting observations to share, which also means it is (or at least feels like) significantly more work than the last installment. So the next revisited faction will take time, let alone a third run.
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Chris Sandman
Germany
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DocCool wrote:
, this is about "XYZ opening statistics"...


Hahaha, seems legit. While reading your large post, which is full of so many interesting stuff, i lost track of its whole putpose
 
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James Wolfpacker
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BUT BUT BUT... I'm going to open differently if a grey or blue faction present or not!
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Robert
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JamesWolfpacker wrote:
BUT BUT BUT... I'm going to open differently if a grey or blue faction present or not!
I know, that's why I gave an example of missing information which is really relevant for the opening and its success rate. Clearly, a sandwiched faction is probably to do worse regardless of the opening. And/or will lean towards certain openings which are more likely to work in that situation. Etc.

Same goes for the placement of initial dwellings. Were there neighbors for the "usual" start hexes or not (or too many)? If not, did the faction start there anyway and swallow an expensive TP (or dig towards neighborhood), or did they use a less common start hex to assure neighborhood?

However, this information is not in the database, so I cannot use it. cry

OTOH, even if the information was available, using it would lead to really tiny sample sizes. I doubt we can read a lot into the average margin of the dozen Witches who faced Engineers, Nomads and Mermaids with a SH opening (note: I made up the dozen ).
 
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