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Subject: Some electorate facts rss

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J
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Clinton is at +25 compared with Obama's margins against Romney with Catholics. [1] They made up about 25% of the electorate in 2012. [2]

Clinton is also at +6 with college educated whites. That's a demographic that Republicans have carried for the past 60 years! As an example, Obama was -6. [3] If you look at only the white females with college degrees it's even worse: Clinton +25. [1]

Whites without college degrees (a demo that Trump easily wins) as a percent of the total electorate, have been decreasing at a rate of 3% every 4 years. Those with college degrees have been increasing by 1%. [4]

Reagan won a landslide 44 states in 1980 and he had 56% of the white vote. Romney got 59% but was soundly defeated. [4]

Trumps first plan was to win by bringing out more of the whites without college degrees. That only got him out of the primary. Now he's pivoting to try and get some of these other demos he's losing with. I suppose that's standard operating procedure, but I think it's a little to late.

I don't see a winning strategy for him here.


1. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/28/do...

2. http://www.pewforum.org/2012/10/11/the-catholic-swing-vote/

3. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-may-become-the-fir...

4. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-demographics-will-sh...

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Boaty McBoatface
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You are only on Muslim away from Trump.

Yes (by the way) he does have a strategy, we are seeing it here on RSP, it's just that not enough people are scared enough yet.
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Mac Mcleod
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jmilum wrote:
Clinton is at +25 compared with Obama's margins against Romney with Catholics. [1] They made up about 25% of the electorate in 2012. [2]

Clinton is also at +6 with college educated whites. That's a demographic that Republicans have carried for the past 60 years! As an example, Obama was -6. [3] If you look at only the white females with college degrees it's even worse: Clinton +25. [1]

Whites without college degrees (a demo that Trump easily wins) as a percent of the total electorate, have been decreasing at a rate of 3% every 4 years. Those with college degrees have been increasing by 1%. [4]

Reagan won a landslide 44 states in 1980 and he had 56% of the white vote. Romney got 59% but was soundly defeated. [4]

Trumps first plan was to win by bringing out more of the whites without college degrees. That only got him out of the primary. Now he's pivoting to try and get some of these other demos he's losing with. I suppose that's standard operating procedure, but I think it's a little to late.

I don't see a winning strategy for him here.


1. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/28/do...

2. http://www.pewforum.org/2012/10/11/the-catholic-swing-vote/

3. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-may-become-the-fir...

4. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-demographics-will-sh...



All the more reason to get out the democratic vote.
Especially help people in voter suppressed categories get a photo id.
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