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Mac Mcleod
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-its-too-...

Interesting comment tho
Quote:
A concern for Trump is that these gains haven’t been as apparent outside of those national tracking polls, all of which are conducted online or by automated script and several of which have a Trump-leaning house effect. The most recent traditional telephone poll, from Quinnipiac University, had Trump down by 7 percentage points — or down 10 points without third-party candidates — a poor result for him given that Quinnipiac had been one of the better traditional pollsters for Trump earlier in the cycle.


The real excitement is that there's starting to be a divergence between 538 and Princeton Wang too! Which one's methods will prove to be more accurate?

http://election.princeton.edu/todays-electoral-vote-histogra...

Quote:
As of August 29, 12:03PM EDT:
Snapshot (100 state polls): Clinton 340, Trump 198 EV Meta-margin: Clinton +5.4%
Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 92%, Bayesian 95%
Senate snapshot (49 polls): Dem+Ind: 51, GOP: 49, Meta-margin: D +2.2%, Nov. control probability: Dem. 72%


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Sam I am
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No especially since the Russian are going to hack the election for Trump.
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G Rowls
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perhaps she can pack the clock in a case and take it to school trump?
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Walking on eggshells is not my style
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All it takes is one moment at the debate where Hillary promises to stay the course Obama set and one "are you better off today than you were 8 years ago" reaganesque line, and the tide turns.

Further note: Carter was a decent man. Even his opponents acknowledged he was honorable, but incapable. No one would give that to Hillary.
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G L
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Koldfoot wrote:

Further note: Carter was a decent man. Even his opponents acknowledged he was honorable, but incapable. No one would give that to Hillary.


And you think that's a reflection on Hillary rather than her opponents?
 
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J
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Koldfoot wrote:
All it takes is one moment at the debate where Hillary

she's going to make it to the debates? So when does she drop out?
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Walking on eggshells is not my style
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jmilum wrote:
Koldfoot wrote:
All it takes is one moment at the debate where Hillary

she's going to make it to the debates? So when does she drop out?


Biden could still not possibly lose.

With the Supreme Court still up for grabs, are dems going to leave it to chance?
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So what's the plan, Koldie? If they wanted her out, the quickest way was to indict over the emails. Secondarily, State could release the phone call and meeting schedules AP is looking for, which could force her into withdrawing from the race. You tell me.

 
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Walking on eggshells is not my style
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SPIGuy wrote:
So what's the plan, Koldie? If they wanted her out, the quickest way was to indict over the emails. Secondarily, State could release the phone call and meeting schedules AP is looking for, which could force her into withdrawing from the race. You tell me.



I predicted they would let her bask in the glory of being the first woman for a while. I also predicted they'd have to wait long enough to give a real sense of urgency in order to pacify and cut Sanders supporters off at the knees. I don't think we are at that point yet.

She has the added complication of people who paid millions for access who won't be pleased.

She would probably need to negotiate a cabinet position behind the scenes.

Edit: and then there are polls. Do sensible democrats believe they will hold?

One thing I note about all these polls is that the number of undecided isn't getting reported. It always has been in the past. I'm suspicious. RSP partisans aren't.
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Oldies but Goodies ... Avalon Hill and
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SPIGuy wrote:
Koldfoot wrote:
[q="SPIGuy"]So what's the plan, Koldie? If they wanted her out, the quickest way was to indict over the emails. Secondarily, State could release the phone call and meeting schedules AP is looking for, which could force her into withdrawing from the race. You tell me.



I predicted they would let her bask in the glory of being the first woman for a while. I also predicted they'd have to wait long enough to give a real sense of urgency in order to pacify and cut Sanders supporters off at the knees. I don't think we are at that point yet.

She has the added complication of people who paid millions for access who won't be pleased.

She would probably need to negotiate a cabinet position behind the scenes.

Edit: and then there are polls. Do sensible democrats believe they will hold?

One thing I note about all these polls is that the number of undecided isn't getting reported. It always has been in the past. I'm suspicious. RSP partisans aren't.

Suits me. I've always liked Joe Biden. I'd be about 80% happy with where he stands on the issues. I'm about 80% of the way toward not voting for Clinton, even with Trump as the opposing candidate.

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J
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Koldfoot wrote:
One thing I note about all these polls is that the number of undecided isn't getting reported. It always has been in the past. I'm suspicious. RSP partisans aren't.

Quote:
Independents remain divided, although they now give slightly more support to Clinton (37%) than to Trump (32%). In prior Monmouth polls, Trump had the nominal advantage among independents, including a slim 32% to 30% edge in early August.
http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPo...

That was the most recent poll listed at RCP.

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Trey Chambers
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Biden would be DESTROYING Trump. Missed opportunity for assured victory.
 
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J.D. Hall
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Ah hypotheticals, i.e. Biden, Cruz, Kodos....

The only polls I'm going to watch are those after the debates. We're going to see two candidates speaking off the cuff, answering questions (well, appearing to answer questions). Trump was awful during the first GOP debates, did better as he went along. Hillary is good in debates. Neither one of them has a message that galvanizes the electorate (think Ronny Raygun's "It's morning in America" theme) and both have lots of baggage packed with personal issues.

Until then, it's mainly mental masturbation.
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